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  • #TKIM -D1
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  • BCAS Technical View 17 Jan 2019

    Stock pick

    1. IHSG (6413) - SOS (6355-6500)
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    Hari ini IHSG masih akan berfluktuasi dengan potensi profit taking dan bergerak dalam range 6355-6500 dengan pertimbangan: Muncul Hanging man candle dengan RSI melemah dan SO berpotensi DX serta volume perdagangan menurun. Menguji resistance level terdekat di 6415-6460 dan menguji support level awal di 6373-6408.

    2. BBTN (2.750) – BOW (2.670-2.880)
    Muncul Inverted hammer candle dengan MA5 berpotensi GX diikuti kenaikan volume perdagangan namun RSI melemah dan SO berpotensi DX. Hari ini menguji support level terdekat di 2.670-2.720 dengan potensi rebound dan menguji resistance level awal 2.770-2.820. HOLD jika mampu break dan bertahan di atas 2.800. Stop loss jika break support level 2.670.

    3. DOID (615) - Spec BUY (550-715)
    Menguji Three white soldiers pattern candle dengan RSI menguat dan SO berpotongan GX diikuti kenaikan volume perdagangan. Hari ini menguji resistance level 625-665 namun rawan profit taking dan menguji support level awal 550-595. HOLD jika mampu break dan bertahan di 665. Stop loss jika break 550.

    4. HRUM (1.740) – Spec BUY (1.640-1.870)
    Muncul Bullish engulfing pattern candle dengan RSI menguat dan SO berpotongan GX diikuti kenaikan volume perdagangan. Hari ini menguji support level 1.640-1.720 dan menguji resistance level awal 1.760-1.800. HOLD jika mampu break dan bertahan di atas 1.800. Stop loss jika break support level 1.640.

    5. INDY (1.935) – Spec BUY (1.875-2.020)
    Muncul Inverted hammer candle dengan RSI menguat diikuti kenaikan volume perdagangan. Hari ini berpotensi menguji resistance level awal 1.950-2.020 namun rawan profit taking dan menguji support level 1.875-1.920. HOLD jika mampu break dan bertahan di atas 2.000-2.020. Stop loss jika break 1.875.

    6. KINO (2.930) – Spec BUY (2.860-3.010)
    Muncul Spinning top white candle dengan MACD berpotensi GX dan RSI menguat diikuti kenaikan volume perdagangan. Hari ini menguji resistance level 2.950-3.010 namun rawan profit taking dan menguji support level terdekat 2.870-2.910. Sell On Strength jika gagal break dan bertahan di atas 3.000. Stop loss jika break support level 2.860.

    7. PTBA (4.380) – Spec BUY (4.330-4.500)
    Menguji Three black crows pattern candle dengan volume perdagangan menurun namun RSI menguat. Hari ini menguji support level 4.330-4.360 dengan potensi rebound dan menguji resistance level awal di 4.400-4.450. HOLD jika mampu break dan bertahan di atas 4.450. Stop loss jika break 4.330.

    8. UNTR (26.050) – Spec BUY (25.275-27.150)
    Muncul Bullish harami pattern candle dengan RSI menguat namun volume perdagangan menurun. Hari ini menguji support level 25.275-25.850 dengan potensi rebound dan menguji resistance level awal 26.350-27.150. HOLD jika mampu break dan bertahan di atas 26.400-27.150. Stop loss jika break support level 25.275.

    9. WOOD (605) – Spec BUY (575-670)
    Muncul Inverted hammer candle dengan RSI meelemah dan volume perdagangan menurun namun MA5 berpotongan GX dan MACD berpotensi GX. Hari ini menguji resistance level awal di 620-670 dan menguji support level 580-600. HOLD jika mampu break dan bertahan di atas 630. Stop loss jika break 575.

    10. BMRI (7.800) - SOS (7.575-8.100)
    Muncul Northern star doji candle dengan volume perdagangan menurun namun RSI menguat dan SO berpotongan GX. Hari ini menguji resistance level terdekat di 7.875-8.100 namun rawan profit taking dan menguji support level terdekat 7.575-7.750. HOLD jika mampu break dan bertahan di atas 7.900-8.000. Stop loss jika break 7.575.

    11. KRAS (470) – SOS (458-484)
    Menguji Three white soldiers pattern candle dengan RSI menguat namun SO berada di area jenuh beli dan volume perdagangan menurun. Hari ini menguji resistance level awal 474-484 namun rawan profit taking dan menguji support level awal di 458-466. HOLD jika mampu break dan bertahan di atas 480-484. Stop loss jika break 458.

    Link Report : https://goo.gl/eVuw6W

    Watchlist
    ADHI, APIC, APLN, ASII, ASRI, AUTO, BABP, BBCA, BBNI, BDMN, BEST, BKSL, BNBA, BNII, BTPS, BWPT, CTTH, DYAN, ESSA, FINN, GZCO, HEXA, IKAI, IMAS, INCO, INDF, INDR, INTP, IPCM, JSMR, JTPE, KBLI, KRAS, KREN, LPKR, MAPI, MBAP, MPMX, MPRO, PGAS, PPRO, PZZA, RBMS, RISE, ROTI, SDMU, SGRO, SIDO, SMDR, SMGR, SMSM, SRIL, SMSM, TINS, TIRA, TLKM, TKIM, TOPS, WEGE, WSBP,

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  • #TKIM -D1
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  • #TKIM -D1
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  • #TKIM -D1
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  • #TKIM -D1
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  • #TKIM -D1
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  • #TKIM -D1
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  • #TKIM -D1
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  • #TKIM -D1
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  • #TKIM -D1
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  • #TKIM -W1
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  • #TKIM -D1
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  • #TKIM -D1
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  • #TKIM -D1
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  • #TKIM -D1
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  • #TKIM -D1
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  • #TKIM -D1
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  • #TKIM -W1
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  • Pulp and Paper Cutting down pulp price assumption

    We lower our pulp price assumption by 13%/16%
    Shanghai softwood pulp price futures (KSP1 COMB Comdty) for June 2019 dropped by 10% (from Oct’18). INKP and TKIM sell slightly different kind of product which is hardwood pulp (only down by 2%). Historically, hardwood and softwood prices tend to move in the same direction. We think the softwood future price decline is due to the sentiment on China’s slower economy that leads to China’s lower pulp consumption. Hence, we lower our pulp price assumption by 13%/16% to USD700/650 per ton in 2019/20. It is in line with our coal price assumption that has similar declining trend going forward.

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    Reducing earnings to reflect lower pulp price
    We reduce our earnings estimates for INKP and TKIM by 26/49% and 29/39% in 2019/20 reflecting lower pulp price assumption. As a result, we expect INKP’s core earnings to decline by 20% next year. However, we assume TKIM to book 21% earnings growth next year supported by 22% higher production capacity from OKI (49% owned by TKIM).

    De-rating already worse than global peers
    INKP and TKIM share prices are down by 40/40% from their recent peak (in Jun18) vs global peers Fibria/Suzano/Klabin down 6/16/16% JCI +3% in the same period. In addition to concern over pulp and paper prices, INKP and TKIM de-rated more relative to its global peers due to perception on their disclosure, which has not improved post-inclusion into MSCI Indonesia.

    Maintain BUY recommendation
    We still have BUY recommendation for INKP and TKIM with DCF-based TP of IDR14,000 and IDR13,500. We maintain our TP for INKP as the lower pulp price assumption is being offset by the increase of cash level in 2019F (we rolled over our cash position from 2017 to 2019F). We reduce our TP for TKIM by 51% of which 36% contributed by lower EBITDA caused by lower pulp price assumption and 15% from higher beta in OKI’s DCF valuation. Our TP implies 10.6x and 8.7x 2019F PE and 6.9x and 8.2x 2019F EV/EBITDA for INKP and TKIM.

    We prefer INKP over TKIM
    We prefer INKP over TKIM for the following reasons: 1) Lower gearing (INKP 0.4x and TKIM 1.0x 2019F), 2) INKP has more straightforward business model compared to TKIM. Note that OKI (contributes c100% of TKIM’s net profit) is not consolidated in TKIM’s financials as it is accounted as income from associates, while INKP has full consolidation for its pulp and paper businesses. Key risks to our call are volatility in pulp prices and China’s lower demand for pulp and paper products.
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  • Saham-Saham Juara 2018

    KONTAN.CO.ID - Tahun 2018 sudah hampir berakhir. Sejumlah saham berhasil mendatangkan cuan luar biasa bagi investor.

    Salah satunya saham Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper (INKP). Bila dihitung sejak awal tahun hingga Rabu (26/12), saham ini mencetak cuan 116%. INKP menjadi saham dengan kinerja terbaik di indeks LQ45 dan IDX30, indeks yang beranggotakan saham kapitalisasi besar dengan likuiditas tinggi.
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    Di urutan berikutnya, ada saham Bukit Asam (PTBA) yang mencetak return 74,39% dan saham Aneka Tambang (ANTM) dengan keuntungan 23,20%.

    Bila menyertakan saham kapitalisasi menengah dengan likuiditas bagus, saham Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia (TKIM) tercatat mencetak return tertinggi, dengan kenaikan 269%. Ini terlihat dari kinerja saham anggota indeks Kompas100 dan Bisnis27.

    Analis Senior CSA Research Institute Reza Priyambada menilai, saham-saham jawara tersebut terdongkrak oleh kinerja keuangan positif di tahun ini. Hasil kinerja tersebut direspons baik oleh pelaku pasar.

    Khusus industri kertas, menurut Reza, prospeknya masih bagus tahun depan. Sebab, ada potensi penggunaan kertas sebagai pengganti bahan kemasan yang belum ramah lingkungan. "INKP bisa jadi sasaran beli, karena pada harga yang masih cukup murah memiliki potensi yang besar," ujar Reza, Rabu (26/12). Saat ini, harga saham INKP setara price to earning ratio (PER) 6,20 kali. Sedang PER TKIM sebesar 6,81 kali.

    Tren kenaikan saham bisa berlanjut jika prospek industri didukung kondisi makroekonomi yang bagus. Menurut Aditya Perdana Putra, analis Semesta Indovest Sekuritas, jika pertumbuhan ekonomi tahun depan lebih baik dari 2018, maka sektor industri dasar, barang konsumsi, infrastruktur dan perbankan sangat menarik.

    Analis Panin Sekuritas William Hartanto juga melihat saham-saham jawara dari lima indeks itu punya fundamental bagus dan layak dijadikan investasi jangka panjang. Selain CPIN, dia menilai saham jawara lainnya, seperti PTBA dan PGAS, masih menarik.

    PGAS dan PTBA terdorong rencana holding BUMN yang akan membuat potensi dan jangkauan perusahaan semakin besar dan luas. William merekomendasikan CPIN, PTBA dan PGAS dengan target harga jangka menengah masing-masing di level Rp 7.200, Rp 4.500 dan Rp 2.400.

    Tapi William menilai INKP dan TKIM sudah naik terlalu tajam. Harga naik tinggi karena investor maupun fund manager baru menyadari fundamental kedua emiten kertas itu bagus. Alhasil, William menilai, sejumlah fund manager melakukan rebalancing dengan dengan mengoleksi INKP dan TKIM, sehingga harganya naik.

    Managing Director Head of Equity Capital Market Samuel International Harry Su juga menyebut saham INKP dan TKIM saat ini overvalued. "Prospek PTBA juga belum baik di kondisi harga minyak menurun. PGAS rentan turun saat ekonomi sedang turun, sebab volume distribusi gas akan melambat," ujar dia.

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