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  • FR CGS-CIMB (YU) : Summarecon Agung | PDF
    2019 presales target seems fair, though still highly reliant on Serpong; upside is from deleveraging
    SMRA IJ / SMRA.JK | HOLD - Maintained | Rp1,000.00 tp:Rp1,150.00
    Mkt.Cap:US$1,027.00m | Avg.Daily Vol:US$1.13m | Free Float:57.50%
    Property Devt & Invt
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    Author(s): Jovent GIOVANNY +62 (21) 3006 1727, Timothy HANDERSON, Leonardo TUKIMAN

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    ■ After missing its 2018 target, SMRA has set a 2019 presales target of Rp4tr (+18% yoy/flat from initial 2018 target). Serpong will remain the driver (50%).
    ■ We think SMRA’s target is achievable given: 1) the improving currency outlook, 2) expectations of a peaceful election, and 3) an infra spillover.
    ■ Maintain Hold in the absence of catalysts. Key upside risks will be better presales and successful deleveraging.
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  • Maybank Kim Eng Research : Indonesia Strategy 2019 Outlook – Bit by Bit

    • Our HoR Isnaputra Iskandar and team set idx 2019 target at 7100 on expectation the macro picture will gradually improve and be less volatile than 2018. BI will continue to implement pro-active market policies and our Maybank strategists are long Indonesia in their 2019 outlook. Politics is not an issue in our view.
    • We think global economy will remain challenging, and as such we expect Indonesia’s monetary policy to lean towards currency stabilization.
    • We forecast a 50bps rate increase in 2019, lower than 2018’s 175bps. Oil price is the wild card in our base case assumptions for the current account deficit (CAD), currency, inflation and interest rate.
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    • We forecast the economy in 2019 to remain resilient, despite volatilities, at c. 5% YoY GDP growth, similar to 2018. The growth is likely to be supported by consumption (+5%) and investment (+6.4%). We forecast 2019 market earnings growth (with and without commodity companies) of 11.7-12.3%, driven by almost all sectors.
    • With low oil prices and a stable IDR, there could be potential upside to our 11.7% growth forecast and this will benefit the cement and consumer sectors.
    • Elections: what’s next? We expect the elections in April to be smooth and peaceful. There is no direct correlation between elections and GDP, but we note a tendency for rising fund flows and IDR appreciation ahead of past elections.
    • Our FX team forecasts the IDR could strengthen 10% into the elections. We think whoever wins the election, will focus on the same major issues: infrastructure, logistics, income distribution and quality of human capital.
    • Risk factors : global volatility, policy transmission time lag, unfavourable election outcome, disappointing earnings
    • IHSG 7100 is based on 17x FY19E P/E (+1SD above mean) and 11.7% EPS growth.
    • Our top picks are ASII, BBNI, BSDE, GGRM, ICBP, PTBA, PWON, RALS, SMGR and SMRA.
    • Links : https://factsetpdf.maybank-ke.com/PDF/120220_MACRO__2f74e196389f4d79a777984903401b2a.pdf?
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  • Maybank (ZP)

    SMRA BUY UPGRADE tp to 1200 (fr 830)

    Maybank-KE research: SMRA – Unlocking Value
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    • Aurellia raises TP to IDR1,200(from IDR830) per shares on FY19E valuations, 57% discount to RNAV.
    • High Capex for greenfield land is over since 2014.
    • Monetising four new projects at Makassar, Bogor, Karawang, and Bali.
    • Consistently capture demand for properties priced IDR1bn or below and no plan to launch new apartements
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  • MNCS Property Sector Update - Neutral

    Expected Trajectory, Still Down!

    9M18 Results: Kinerja yang Bervariatif, BSDE dan ASRI terkena Dampak Penurunan Rupiah
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    Kami mencatat emiten properti melaporkan kinerja yang bervariasi pada 9M18. Pendapatan terpantau meningkat rata-rata -1,68% YoY (vs 13,84% YoY di 9M17), mencerminkan 67,91%/64,88% dari perkiraan MNCS/Konsensus. PWON membukukan pendapatan 3Q18 tertinggi pada 19,00% YoY, menjadi Rp5,23 triliun, diikuti oleh CTRA (7,89% YoY), ASRI (1,05% YoY) dan SMRA (0,71% YoY). Sementara itu, BSDE dan DMAS melaporkan pendapatan menurun -18,94%/-19,77% YoY, akibat penjualan lahan & bangunan yang melambat. Di sisi lain, presales rata-rata di 9M18 mencapai 73,91%/70,23% dari target MNCS/ Perusahaan. Meskipun pendapatan 9M18 benar-benar menampakkan perubahan positif, bottom line tertekan kerugian Forex losses. SMRA membukukan laba bersih tertinggi sebesar 70,24% YoY, diikuti oleh PWON (25,23% YoY) dan CTRA (2,40% YoY) sementara DMAS, ASRI dan BSDE mencatatkan penurunan laba bersih, disebabkan USD/IDR melemah ke level Rp14,929 (-10,24% YTD).
    Katalis Utama FY19F: Relaksasi LTV dan FDI Berkelanjutan di Sektor Properti
    Kami percaya relaksasi LTV di 8M18 diharapkan menjadi katalis khususnya bagi mid-low segmen dengan skema KPR menjadi pilihan sebagian besar pembeli, sejalan dengan pelonggaran LTV oleh BI untuk semua jenis pembelian rumah pertama. Relaksasi rasio LTV menjadi salah satu strategi yang dijalankan untuk meningkatkan persentase kepemilikan rumah, meskipun baru akan tercermin dalam 6-12 bulan mendatang. Selain itu, kami yakin peluang FDI di sektor properti tetap meningkat. Menurut kami, tenaga kerja yang terjangkau dan ketersediaan lahan & infrastruktur menjadi keunggulan kompetitif nasional. Investasi di segmen perumahan & segmen industri meningkat secara signifikan sebesar 73,42% YoY, senilai USD3,528.88 mn di 9M18.
    Potensi Risiko berasal dari Suku Bunga Tinggi dan Rupiah yang Melemah
    Hingga 11M18, BI telah melakukan peningkatan suku bunga sebanyak enam (6) kali, meningkat 175bps menjadi 6% dan berpotensi meningkatkan suku bunga KPR/KPA meskipun pada 9M18 suku bunga berada di level 9.40%/9.37% (vs10.15%/10.59% pada 9M17). Lebih lanjut, pergerakan nilai tukar rupiah yang cenderung melemah hingga ±Rp14.900 di 9M18, berpotensi menurunkan margin laba bersih beberapa perusahaan yang memiliki eksposur USD.

    Rekomendasi Neutral dengan Saham Pilihan: CTRA, DMAS,SMRA
    Kami mempertahankan pandangan NEUTRAL untuk sektor properti di FY19E, mengharapkan presales untuk stagnan, di FY18E / FY19F di 3,91% / 2,34%, YoY karena: 1) Loosening LTV, dengan potensi untuk menarik lebih banyak pembeli pertama kali; 2) Prospective residential segment untuk pasar bawah dan menengah: 3) FDI yang berkelanjutan di sektor properti. Potensi risiko: 1) Tingkat bunga; 2) NJOP lebih tinggi; 3) Nilai tukar Rupiah. Saham pilihan kami adalah CTRA (HOLD; TP: Rp1,100), DMAS (BUY; TP: Rp202), dan SMRA (BUY; TP: Rp875).

    Disclaimer On
    MNCS Institutional Research Team

    https://www.mncsekuritas.id/category/company-focus
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