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  • BCAS Technical View 17 Jan 2019

    Stock pick

    1. IHSG (6413) - SOS (6355-6500)
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    Hari ini IHSG masih akan berfluktuasi dengan potensi profit taking dan bergerak dalam range 6355-6500 dengan pertimbangan: Muncul Hanging man candle dengan RSI melemah dan SO berpotensi DX serta volume perdagangan menurun. Menguji resistance level terdekat di 6415-6460 dan menguji support level awal di 6373-6408.

    2. BBTN (2.750) – BOW (2.670-2.880)
    Muncul Inverted hammer candle dengan MA5 berpotensi GX diikuti kenaikan volume perdagangan namun RSI melemah dan SO berpotensi DX. Hari ini menguji support level terdekat di 2.670-2.720 dengan potensi rebound dan menguji resistance level awal 2.770-2.820. HOLD jika mampu break dan bertahan di atas 2.800. Stop loss jika break support level 2.670.

    3. DOID (615) - Spec BUY (550-715)
    Menguji Three white soldiers pattern candle dengan RSI menguat dan SO berpotongan GX diikuti kenaikan volume perdagangan. Hari ini menguji resistance level 625-665 namun rawan profit taking dan menguji support level awal 550-595. HOLD jika mampu break dan bertahan di 665. Stop loss jika break 550.

    4. HRUM (1.740) – Spec BUY (1.640-1.870)
    Muncul Bullish engulfing pattern candle dengan RSI menguat dan SO berpotongan GX diikuti kenaikan volume perdagangan. Hari ini menguji support level 1.640-1.720 dan menguji resistance level awal 1.760-1.800. HOLD jika mampu break dan bertahan di atas 1.800. Stop loss jika break support level 1.640.

    5. INDY (1.935) – Spec BUY (1.875-2.020)
    Muncul Inverted hammer candle dengan RSI menguat diikuti kenaikan volume perdagangan. Hari ini berpotensi menguji resistance level awal 1.950-2.020 namun rawan profit taking dan menguji support level 1.875-1.920. HOLD jika mampu break dan bertahan di atas 2.000-2.020. Stop loss jika break 1.875.

    6. KINO (2.930) – Spec BUY (2.860-3.010)
    Muncul Spinning top white candle dengan MACD berpotensi GX dan RSI menguat diikuti kenaikan volume perdagangan. Hari ini menguji resistance level 2.950-3.010 namun rawan profit taking dan menguji support level terdekat 2.870-2.910. Sell On Strength jika gagal break dan bertahan di atas 3.000. Stop loss jika break support level 2.860.

    7. PTBA (4.380) – Spec BUY (4.330-4.500)
    Menguji Three black crows pattern candle dengan volume perdagangan menurun namun RSI menguat. Hari ini menguji support level 4.330-4.360 dengan potensi rebound dan menguji resistance level awal di 4.400-4.450. HOLD jika mampu break dan bertahan di atas 4.450. Stop loss jika break 4.330.

    8. UNTR (26.050) – Spec BUY (25.275-27.150)
    Muncul Bullish harami pattern candle dengan RSI menguat namun volume perdagangan menurun. Hari ini menguji support level 25.275-25.850 dengan potensi rebound dan menguji resistance level awal 26.350-27.150. HOLD jika mampu break dan bertahan di atas 26.400-27.150. Stop loss jika break support level 25.275.

    9. WOOD (605) – Spec BUY (575-670)
    Muncul Inverted hammer candle dengan RSI meelemah dan volume perdagangan menurun namun MA5 berpotongan GX dan MACD berpotensi GX. Hari ini menguji resistance level awal di 620-670 dan menguji support level 580-600. HOLD jika mampu break dan bertahan di atas 630. Stop loss jika break 575.

    10. BMRI (7.800) - SOS (7.575-8.100)
    Muncul Northern star doji candle dengan volume perdagangan menurun namun RSI menguat dan SO berpotongan GX. Hari ini menguji resistance level terdekat di 7.875-8.100 namun rawan profit taking dan menguji support level terdekat 7.575-7.750. HOLD jika mampu break dan bertahan di atas 7.900-8.000. Stop loss jika break 7.575.

    11. KRAS (470) – SOS (458-484)
    Menguji Three white soldiers pattern candle dengan RSI menguat namun SO berada di area jenuh beli dan volume perdagangan menurun. Hari ini menguji resistance level awal 474-484 namun rawan profit taking dan menguji support level awal di 458-466. HOLD jika mampu break dan bertahan di atas 480-484. Stop loss jika break 458.

    Link Report : https://goo.gl/eVuw6W

    Watchlist
    ADHI, APIC, APLN, ASII, ASRI, AUTO, BABP, BBCA, BBNI, BDMN, BEST, BKSL, BNBA, BNII, BTPS, BWPT, CTTH, DYAN, ESSA, FINN, GZCO, HEXA, IKAI, IMAS, INCO, INDF, INDR, INTP, IPCM, JSMR, JTPE, KBLI, KRAS, KREN, LPKR, MAPI, MBAP, MPMX, MPRO, PGAS, PPRO, PZZA, RBMS, RISE, ROTI, SDMU, SGRO, SIDO, SMDR, SMGR, SMSM, SRIL, SMSM, TINS, TIRA, TLKM, TKIM, TOPS, WEGE, WSBP,

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  • #SMGR -H1
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  • #SMGR -D1
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  • Maybank Kim Eng Research : Indonesia Strategy 2019 Outlook – Bit by Bit

    • Our HoR Isnaputra Iskandar and team set idx 2019 target at 7100 on expectation the macro picture will gradually improve and be less volatile than 2018. BI will continue to implement pro-active market policies and our Maybank strategists are long Indonesia in their 2019 outlook. Politics is not an issue in our view.
    • We think global economy will remain challenging, and as such we expect Indonesia’s monetary policy to lean towards currency stabilization.
    • We forecast a 50bps rate increase in 2019, lower than 2018’s 175bps. Oil price is the wild card in our base case assumptions for the current account deficit (CAD), currency, inflation and interest rate.
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    • We forecast the economy in 2019 to remain resilient, despite volatilities, at c. 5% YoY GDP growth, similar to 2018. The growth is likely to be supported by consumption (+5%) and investment (+6.4%). We forecast 2019 market earnings growth (with and without commodity companies) of 11.7-12.3%, driven by almost all sectors.
    • With low oil prices and a stable IDR, there could be potential upside to our 11.7% growth forecast and this will benefit the cement and consumer sectors.
    • Elections: what’s next? We expect the elections in April to be smooth and peaceful. There is no direct correlation between elections and GDP, but we note a tendency for rising fund flows and IDR appreciation ahead of past elections.
    • Our FX team forecasts the IDR could strengthen 10% into the elections. We think whoever wins the election, will focus on the same major issues: infrastructure, logistics, income distribution and quality of human capital.
    • Risk factors : global volatility, policy transmission time lag, unfavourable election outcome, disappointing earnings
    • IHSG 7100 is based on 17x FY19E P/E (+1SD above mean) and 11.7% EPS growth.
    • Our top picks are ASII, BBNI, BSDE, GGRM, ICBP, PTBA, PWON, RALS, SMGR and SMRA.
    • Links : https://factsetpdf.maybank-ke.com/PDF/120220_MACRO__2f74e196389f4d79a777984903401b2a.pdf?
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  • #SMGR -D1
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  • ID - [ SMGR IJ]: Semen Indonesia higher market share in November
    Andrey Wijaya, Mutiara Nita - RHB Sekuritas

    ♦ Semen Indonesia November total sales came in at 2.8m tonnes ( -10.1% MoM, +3.9% YoY), bringing its 11M18 sales to 27.9m tonnes (+5.6% YoY).

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    ♦ Lower MoM November sales were driven by cyclicality because of heavy rain.

    ♦ Semen Indonesia domestic market share increased to 39.7% in November (vs 39.5% in October and 40.3% in Nov-17).

    ♦ Semen Indonesia export sales came in at 250,130 tonnes in November ( -22.4% MoM, +47.4% YoY), bringing its 11M18 export sales to 2.9m tonnes (+68.2% YoY).

    ♦ Maintain BUY, with TP of IDR14,500 ( 27% upside), reflecting 29x-25x FY19F-20F P/Es.
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  • RHB Indonesia Morning Cuppa: 17 Dec 2018
    Top Story:
    ♦Indonesia Auto & Autoparts: 2019 Outlook: New Model Cycle To Boost Sales
    Economics and Politics
    ♦Indonesia government may resume talks to cut income tax rate
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    Industry:
    ♦New regulation for excise tax on tobacco products (CHT) under PMK No.156/PMK.010/2018
    ♦Commercial vehicles in 11M18 was recorded at 240,902 units (+18.9% YoY)
    ♦Financial management for Hajj (BPKH) will allocate 20% of the funds to invest in Arab Saudi directly
    ♦Indonesian coal miners are targeting to increase production of coking coal in 2019, to boost its margins
    Corporate:
    ♦Semen Indonesia (SMGR IJ) November 2018 recorded its 11M18 sales at 27.9m tonnes (+5.6% YoY)
    ♦BNI recorded an increase in agribusiness sector credit of 5.1%
    ♦Adaro Energy targets 2 electric steam power plants will be done in FY19
    ♦Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) to open 170 new outlets of MAP Aktif (MAPA IJ) and MAP Boga (MAPB IJ) in FY19
    ♦Erajaya (ERAA IJ) targets to open 300 new outlets in FY19
    ♦Medco Energi (MEDC IJ) allocates USD110mn capex for power business in Riau and Ijen, East Java
    ♦AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) sets IDR600-700bn capex budget in FY19
    ♦J Resources Asia Pasifik (PSAB IJ) targets revenue of USD200mn in 2019
    ♦BNI Life Insurance and Perum Perumnas will extend their coorporation

    To see the full report, kindly click the link: https://bit.ly/2Ev2K56

    Disclaimer: This message is for information purposes only. Reproduction or dissemination to third party is prohibited. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor shall it be construed as an offer/solicitation or recommendation to buy/sell any stocks . Investors should make their own informed decisions by consulting your own independent adviser(s) before investing. We accept no responsibility or liability for loss or damage that may arise from the reliance of this message. For the full information regarding the stocks mentioned herein please refer to the relevant websites.
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  • 1st SESSION JCI on 17.12.18
    (By: D'ORIGIN - Veni Fitriani)

    JCI @6108.74 (-61.100pts) (-0.990%)
    (H: 6174.22 ; L: 6099.94)
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    (Value: 4.384 T (NG 1.494 T)
    Vol.: 74.880 Lot (NG 28.641 Lot)
    (Adv.114 ; Decl.274 ; Unchg.138 shr)
    Foreign Nett Sell 180.04 B
    Foreign Value 19.6%
    Incl.Crossing:
    - APIC @545 ~ 319.92 B (D vs D)
    - TRAM @353 ~ 313.30 B (D vs D)
    - POLA @1950 ~ 300.00 B (D vs D)
    LQ45...975.92(-1.09%)

    *BUY (Regular)
    F Buy 618.8 B
    D Buy 2270.4 B
    *SELL (Reguler)
    F Sell 745.4 B
    D Sell 2143.8 B

    USD/IDR:
    JISDOR: 14,538;14,617
    SPOT: 14,575;14,610

    JCI for today:
    Support: 6085, 6040
    Resist: 6145, 6190

    6 MARKETs DRIVEN BY SECTOR
    FINANCE (-0.53%) (1.46 T)
    INFRA (-0.06%) (670.19 B)
    MANUFACT (-1.52%) (657.26 B)
    PROPERTY (-1.51%) (355.46 B)
    CONSUMER (-1.69%) (319.34 B)
    MINING (-1.49%) (148.55 B)

    7 NET BUY STOCKs BY FOREIGNERS
    BBNI @8516 (34.71 B)
    ICBP @10148 (32.93 B)
    TLKM @3744 (16.87 B)
    BBRI @3652 (14.73 B)
    SMGR @11409 (10.20 B)
    ASII @8348 (8.58 B)
    LSIP @1288 (4.23 B)

    7 NET SELL STOCKs BY FOREIGNERS
    BBCA @25830 (108.12 B)
    BMRI @7487 (36.47 B)
    UNTR @29127 (18.03 B)
    MNCN @774 (17.42 B)
    INKP @11496 (9.90 B)
    INDF @6994 (7.23 B)
    UNVR @43637 (6.42 B)

    8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VALUE
    BBCA @25800 (-0.10%)
    POOL @4750 (-1.04%)
    BBRI @3650 (-0.82%)
    TLKM @3740 (+0.27%)
    MABA @286 (-0.69%)
    BMRI @7475 (-1.32%)
    BBNI @8525 (-0.87%)
    ASII @8350 (-1.18%)

    8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VOLUME
    MYRX @110 (9.266.437 lot)
    MABA @286 (4.954.409 lot)
    RIMO @142 (4.355.936 lot)
    IIKP @200 (3.226.476 lot)
    SRIL @360 (1.829.053 lot)
    FREN @85 (951.415 lot)
    TRAM @163 (871.414 lot)
    MAMI @122 (833.117 lot)

    "....Have a Nice Lunch...."
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  • PT Semen Indonesia Tbk (SMGR; Rp11,425; Buy) bukukan volume penjualan 25 juta ton hingga November (11M18) atau naik 1,3% (yoy). Dengan berbagai catatan, ada peluang terjadi kenaikan harga dalam waktu ke depan... https://goo.gl/nsFr2P

    #IPOTNews#KompasParaInvestor @ipotnews

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  • #SMGR -D1
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  • SMGR Klaim Rasio Utang Terjaga Untuk Akuisisi SMCB

    Bisnis.com, JAKARTA - PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. (SMGR) mengklaim rasio utang perseroan tetap terjaga apabila akuisisi kepemilikan saham PT Holcim Indonesia Tbk. dari Holderfin B.V dieksekusi.

    Sekretaris Perusahaan Semen Indonesia, Agung Wiharto menjelaskan perseroan telah melakukan kajian sebelum memutuskan untuk mencaplok saham Holdefin B.V di Holcim Indonesia. Oleh karena itu, pihaknya meyakini kondisi keuangan perseroan akan tetap baik setelah mengeksekusi akuisisi tersebut.
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    http://market.bisnis.com/read/20181202/192/865468/smgr-klaim-rasio-utang-terjaga-untukakuisisi-smcb
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  • PT Valbury Sekuritas Indonesia
    Market Summary
    30 November 2018

    VIEW MARKET 
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    Sentimen pasar dari dalam negeri:
    Presiden Joko Widodo menyatakan akan mengeluarkan UMKM dari rencana relaksasi Daftar Negatif Investasi (DNI), yang masuk dalam Paket Kebijakan Ekonomi ke-16. Keputusan tersebut diambil setelah mendapatkan masukan dari Kamar Dagang dan Industri Indonesia (Kadin) dan Umum Himpunan Pengusaha Muda Indonesia (HIPMI).  Hal ini dengan mempertimbangkan bahwa kontribusi UMKM terhadap produk domestik bruto (PDB) Indonesia sangatlah besar. Mayoritas tenaga kerja Indonesia yang berada di sektor UMKM telah memberikan kontribusi terhadap PDB mencapai 60%.

    Kabar lainnya, tantangan bagi perekonomian nasional di 2019 diperkirakan masih cukup besar. Di tataran global, dampak perang dagang yang dilancarkan AS pada sejumlah mitra dagang terutama China akan semakin terasa di sektor riil. Menteri Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian Darmin Nasution mengatakan, Indonesia bukan negara yang terlibat langsung dalam perang dagang AS dan China. Namun, kedua negara besar itu merupakan partner dagang utama bagi Indonesia. Namun, Darmin menuturkan bahwa perang dagang dapat memberikan dampak positif meski tidak langsung, terutama relokasi investasi baik investor Cina, AS maupun Eropa ke dalam negeri.

    Gubernur Bank Indonesia (BI) Perry Warjiyo mengatakan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada 2019 diperkirakan tetap meningkat hingga mencapai kisaran 5,0% hingga 5,4% Inflasi 2019 tetap terkendali pada kisaran sasaran 3,5% plus 1%.

    Sentimen pasar dari luar negeri :
    Dari AS, Presiden Donald Trump mengatakan pemberlakuan tarif impor AS pada truk kecil buatan luar negeri akan mencegah penutupan beberapa pabrik General Motors (GM) dan hilangnya ribuan lapangan kerja manufaktur yang didambakan. Menurutnya kenaikan penjualan truk kecil AS di Amerika disebabkan oleh tarif impor sebesar 25% terhadap impor truk kecil.

    Prediksi IHSG :
    Terbatasnya katalis positif bagi pasar serta sinyalemen akan teknikal koreksi atas indeks global dapat menjadi faktor penekan bagi IHSG pada perdagangan saham hari ini. Selain itu, koreksi saham AS pada Kamis semakin menguatkan potensi koreksi saham Asia.

    Perspektif tenikal
    Support Level :    6055/6004/5978
    Resistance Level :   6133/6159/6211
    Major Trend : Down
    Minor Trend : Up
    Pattern : Down



    TRADING IDEAS :
    These recommendations based on technical and only intended for one day trading

    SMGR: Trading Buy
    • Close 12000, TP 12175
    • Boleh buy di level 11625-12000
    • Resistance di 12175 & support di 11625
    • Waspadai jika tembus di 11625
    • Batasi resiko di 11575

    INDF: Trading Buy
    • Close 6400, TP 6500
    • Boleh buy di level  6200-6400
    • Resistance di 6500 & support di 6200
    • Waspadai jika tembus di 6200
    • Batasi resiko di 5150

    WIKA : Trading Buy
    • Close 1495, TP 1530
    • Boleh buy di level  1445-1495
    • Resistance di 1530 & support di 1445
    • Waspadai jika tembus di 1445
    • Batasi resiko di 1430

    PTPP:  Trading Buy
    • Close 1865, TP 1925
    • Boleh buy di level  1745-1865
    • Resistance di 1925 & support di 1745
    • Waspadai jika tembus di 1745
    • Batasi resiko di 1730

    BBCA:  Trading Buy
    • Close 26200, TP 26500
    • Boleh buy di level  25725-26200
    • Resistance di 27125 & support di 25725
    • Waspadai jika tembus di 25725
    • Batasi resiko di 25600

    UNTR:  Trading Buy
    • Close 29350, TP 29875
    • Boleh buy di level  28775-29350
    • Resistance di 29875 & support di 28775
    • Waspadai jika tembus di 28775
    • Batasi resiko di 28600

    Ket.  TP : Target Price


    WATCHING ON SCREEN;
    BSDE, PTPP, WIKA, ADHI, WSKT, BBNI.

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