• ERAA: menarik jg mengamati pergerakannya, di saat market minus 1.5% / 90 pts, closing ERAA today masih dijaga hanya berkurang Rp5 saja. Dilihat dari posisinya yg masih berpegangan erat pada Support MA10, mungkinkah sudah terbentuk suatu rencana tuk menuju next Target yaitu MA20 skaligus Resistance lower channel (biru) di angka 1300? Watch closely for its Support around 1060 jika sentimen negatif market in general sangat mendera.
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  • ERAA: menarik jg mengamati pergerakannya, di saat market minus 1.5% / 90 pts, closing ERAA today masih dijaga hanya berkurang Rp5 saja. Dilihat dari posisinya yg masih berpegangan erat pada Support MA10, mungkinkah sudah terbentuk suatu rencana tuk menuju next Target yaitu MA20 skaligus Resistance lower channel (biru) di angka 1300? Watch closely for its Support around 1060 jika sentimen negatif market in general sangat mendera.
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  • Maybank Kim Eng Research : Indonesia Strategy 2019 Outlook – Bit by Bit

    • Our HoR Isnaputra Iskandar and team set idx 2019 target at 7100 on expectation the macro picture will gradually improve and be less volatile than 2018. BI will continue to implement pro-active market policies and our Maybank strategists are long Indonesia in their 2019 outlook. Politics is not an issue in our view.
    • We think global economy will remain challenging, and as such we expect Indonesia’s monetary policy to lean towards currency stabilization.
    • We forecast a 50bps rate increase in 2019, lower than 2018’s 175bps. Oil price is the wild card in our base case assumptions for the current account deficit (CAD), currency, inflation and interest rate.
    See More
    • We forecast the economy in 2019 to remain resilient, despite volatilities, at c. 5% YoY GDP growth, similar to 2018. The growth is likely to be supported by consumption (+5%) and investment (+6.4%). We forecast 2019 market earnings growth (with and without commodity companies) of 11.7-12.3%, driven by almost all sectors.
    • With low oil prices and a stable IDR, there could be potential upside to our 11.7% growth forecast and this will benefit the cement and consumer sectors.
    • Elections: what’s next? We expect the elections in April to be smooth and peaceful. There is no direct correlation between elections and GDP, but we note a tendency for rising fund flows and IDR appreciation ahead of past elections.
    • Our FX team forecasts the IDR could strengthen 10% into the elections. We think whoever wins the election, will focus on the same major issues: infrastructure, logistics, income distribution and quality of human capital.
    • Risk factors : global volatility, policy transmission time lag, unfavourable election outcome, disappointing earnings
    • IHSG 7100 is based on 17x FY19E P/E (+1SD above mean) and 11.7% EPS growth.
    • Our top picks are ASII, BBNI, BSDE, GGRM, ICBP, PTBA, PWON, RALS, SMGR and SMRA.
    • Links :
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    By: Bloomberg News

    From stocks to bonds to oil, it was mayhem across markets Thursday.  

    See More
    Here are some of the things people are talking about:

    》A Whirlwind Trip

    U.S. equities recovered from the lows of the day after a late rally in large technology stocks helped to propel the Nasdaq 100 higher, in what was the biggest reversal for the index since April. The S&P 500 Index ended in negative territory.

    Financial markets remained volatile on bets that the trade truce between China and the U.S. won’t last after the arrest of Huawei’s chief financial officer. 

    Bank shares in the S&P 500 fell as much as 3.9 percent before closing down 1.4 percent, as Treasury yields slid to the lowest since August.

    Helping to ease anxiety were comments from two regional Federal Reserve presidents urging policy caution from the U.S. central bank amid mounting economic uncertainties and recent volatility in financial markets.

    》Crude Collapse Continues

    Crude dropped the most in almost two weeks amid signals that OPEC, Russia and other aligned oil producers won’t curb output enough to erase a supply overhang. Futures in New York declined as much as 5 percent on Thursday before recovering somewhat.

    Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Khalid Al-Falih said in Vienna that he was not confident OPEC and allied oil producers will reach an agreement when the Organization of Petroleum Exporting

    Countries meets again with allies on Friday. A proposal for a combined 1 million barrel-a-day cut by OPEC and non-OPEC is being discussed. “There continues to be uncertainty with what OPEC will do,” said Brian Kessens, who helps manage $16 billion at Tortoise in Leawood, Kansas. “Right now, it’s a market that is assuming the worst.”

    》Huawei Looms Large

    Huawei Technologies Co. Chief Financial Officer Wanzhou Meng is part of an ongoing investigation by U.S. prosecutors into whether Huawei violated banking laws as it sought to evade sanctions against Iran by routing a series of transactions through HSBC Holdings Plc, according to a person briefed on the matter. 

    President Donald Trump wasn’t aware the U.S. had requested Meng’s extradition from Canada before he joined Chinese President Xi Jinping for dinner on Saturday, a White House official said Thursday.

    Still, the arrest now threatens  to make the U.S.-China conflict much worse. Meng is the daughter of the company’s founder, a national champion at the forefront of China President Xi Jinping’s efforts for China to be self-sufficient in strategic technologies.

    While the U.S. routinely asks allies to extradite drug lords, arms dealers and other criminals, arresting a major Chinese executive like this is rare — if not unprecedented.

    》Time for Answers

    Renault SA is aiming to reach in about a week the first conclusions of an internal probe into whether the pay packagesof Carlos Ghosn, along with the French carmaker’s other top managers, were properly disclosed to shareholders, according to people familiar with the matter.

    The ongoing investigation focuses on their salaries and other benefits at Renault said the people, who asked not to be named because the information isn’t public.

    The probe is being led by Eric Le Grand, a former head of security who was recently appointed as an ethics and compliance officer, and another Renault insider, Claude Baland, a 68-year-old former top civil servant, they said.

    》Crashing Out of Crypto

    The plunge in the cryptocurrencymarket is weighing on the software-development community that spawned over 1,000 digital coins amid dreams of independence from traditional financial systems and instant wealth.

    ETCDEV, the startup that led development on Ethereum Classic, which is among the top 20 coins with a market capitalization of about $400 million, announced this week that it’s shuttering operations due to a funding crunch. 

    Joseph Lubin’s ConsenSys, one of the largest crypto-related software startups based in New York, said Thursday that its workforce will be reduced by 13 percent as part of a reorganization.

    Many of the companiesare suffering because they kept a portion of their funds in digital assets, whether in tokens they sold through initial coin offerings or in Bitcoin and Ether, which served as the preferred means of exchange in the crypto world. As prices collapsed this year, by more than 90 percent in some cases, and their so-called digital wallets thinned out, many developers found they couldn’t raise additional funding.

    What we’ve been reading
    Here’s what caught our eye over the past 24 hours.

    Here are the 50 people who defined global business in 2018.

    The Huawei arrest will test China-Canada ties too.

    Beijing’s new drug-buying program is causing share-price pain.

    Pakistan’s military making an unusually strong effort to mend ties with India.

    Shanghai is now the most expensive city in Asia for the rich.
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  • Bahana (DX) 14 Nov 2018

    Meeting with Ignasius Jonan, Minister for Energy and Mineral Resources
    Summary: On 14 November 2018, we conducted a meeting with the Minister for Energy and Mineral Resources, Ignasius Jonan, which was attended by 13 institutions consisting of foreign and local investors. During this meeting, the energy regulations were clarified particularly: i) DMO fulfillment and penalties, ii) Transfer quota, iii) No change on gas DMO, iv) Freeport divestment, and v) Indonesia’s O&G prospects. The regulations discussed would change the outlook for coal, oil, and gas in 2019. Below are our key takeaways.

    See More
    On coal, the Minister stated that DMO fulfillment is non-negotiable for coal miners and said that the ministry will enforce sanctions on miners failing to meet the quota. Note that the sanction willl be on the reduced production quota for 2019, set at 4x DMO realization in 2018. We believe that this will translate into a bidding war for excess DMO by miners that exceeded their own quota in 2018. This will benefit Bukit Asam (Not Rated) and Kideco (a subsidiary of Indika/INDY IJ, IDR2.620, Not Rated), which exceeded their DMO quota as of 9M18

    Bukit Asam said that it has received interested enquiries for its excess DMO quota, but has not agreed on the price, with the current bid price being USD8-10/tonne lower than its asking price. But we believe there is an actual shortage of DMO quota given the cut-off date for the calculation of excess/shortage at the end of September, i.e. excess sales to the domestic market in 4Q18 did not count towards the excess DMO quota. Meanwhile, miners will need to buy quota based on the expected DMO shortage for their 2018 production.

    As for gas DMO, Mr. Jonan said that nothing has changed despite the media reporting a plan to cap the gas DMO price at USD6/mmbtu. The regulation remains that gas prices at the wellhead and plant gate are capped at 8% and 14.5% of the Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) respectively. With ICP at USD77.6/bbl in October, this translates into a plant gate cap of USD11.2/mmbtu. Given the formula, we believe that Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGN) can maintain its distribution margin to PLNif the ICP remains above USD55/bbl.

    Freeport’s mining license will be released after the divestment process is completed. The divestment is currently in progress with shareholder meetings, agreements, etc. The process is expected to be completed by the end of this year.

    The Minister was also bullish on the exploration prospect of Indonesia’s O&G fields following the shift to a gross split policy, which he said has been warmly accepted by both global and local O&G players. He believes that the regulation promotes efficiency because contractors stand to benefit from it. Mr. Jonan also denied the rise of resource nationalism and said the reason Pertamina obtained several large termination blocks was that it was more aggressive in its bidding.
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  • Ciptadana (KI)

    PGAS BUY UPGRADE TP 2720 (fr 2600)

    9M18 results significantly above expectations
    See More
    Perusahaan Gas Negara reported more than double YoY growth in 9M18 net income to USD218 mn, far above our and consensus expectations at 97-90% of respective FY18F. Strong profit growth was mainly driven by the combined 1) 13% YoY higher in revenue to USD2.45 bn buoyed by 11% increase in gas distribution volume (despite 2.3% lower in ASP to USD8.4 mn), which lifted gas distribution revenue to USD1.94 bn (+8% YoY) and 2) 40% increase in upstream (oil & gas revenue) to USD442 mn. As COGS (+10% YoY) and Opex (+5% YoY) increased at slower pace than revenue, operating profit jumped by 41% YoY to USD380 mn, almost reached our FY18F of USD383 mn. 9M18 GPM expanded by 210bps to 28% largely helped by 3,240bps expansion in upstream unit’s GPM to 24.6% from negative 7.8% a year ago, while gas distribution GPM contracted by 220bps to 30.8% as distribution margin declined to USD2.3/mmbtu vs USD2.5/mmbtu in 9M17.

    3Q18 earnings increase helped largely by lower opex
    The company reported 10% QoQ increase in 3Q18 net profit as flat revenue (-0.3%) and declined gross profit (-13.7%) were more than offset by 35% decrease in Opex. Flat revenue came on the back of 23% decline in upstream revenue post expiry of Sanga- Sanga block despite 6% higher in distribution revenue to USD670 mn on 5% hike in distribution volume to 875 mmscfd owing to higher volume on Asian Games event and 1% hikes in ASP to USD8.4/mmbtu. Gross profit dropped by 14% QoQ weighed down by worsened profitability at upstream units where GPM contracted by 1,860bps to 19.7%. However, operating profit still managed to grow by 12% QoQ to USD130 mn as opex dropped by 35% on normalization after Lebaran bonus and employee benefit adjustment in 2Q18. Below operating line, the profitability was also helped by lower tax payment.

    No impact on planned DMO gas price
    The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has proposed the issuance of a regulation to impose a price ceiling for natural gas, particularly for electricity plants, to help state- owned electricity company PLN provide affordable rates to its customers and help PLN improve its financial performance. The gas prices for power plants would be set at DMO price of USD6/mmbtu while currently 41% of PGAS distribution volume is sold to power plant. In contrast to our initial view that DMO gas price will negatively impact earnings, our discussion with PGAS official reveals no impact to earnings. DMO price cap refers to upstream price (excluding distribution margin). The current policy of 7/11 for midstream gas business mentioned that trading spread on upstream gas cost at 7% plus pipeline IRR at 11% USD2.3/mmbtu.

    Earnings and TP revised up on solid results
    Following stronger-than-expected 9M18 results, we revised up our 2018-19F earnings forecasts by 29-13% to USD289-294 mn. This mainly resulted from 5-3% increase in distribution volume forecasts to 843-894 mmscfd which lifted our revenue forecast by 4.5- 1.1%. We also fine tuned our costs and opex ratio to revenue assumption to align with 9M18 numbers. All things considered, we raise our target price on PGAS to Rp2,720 (prev: Rp2,600 ). As our new TP still offers 31% upside potential, we maintain our Buy rating on PGAS. The completion of Pertagas acquisition may act as further catalyst for stock price.
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  • (Bloomberg) -- Finance Ministry aims to raise 10t rupiah by offering bonds maturing in Nov. 2018, June 2019, May 2023, May 2028, May 2033 and May 2038. WHAT TO WATCH:
    • Bank Indonesia’s board of governors hold the first out of two days rate meeting, announcement expected on Wednesday
    • Investment Coordinating Board’s press conference on 1H realization at 9:30am
    • Finance Ministry’s press briefing on latest 2018 state budget at 11:30am
    • Indonesia to Hold Cabinet Meeting on Forex Reserves on Tuesday
    See More
    • Jokowi Challenger Has a Mountain to Climb on Social Media Battle
    • Riding the Selloff: How EM Investors Are Playing Turkey’s Crisis
    • Asia ADR, GDR Equity Premium/Discounts for August 14
    • ASIA BONDWRAP: Spreads Widen as Turkey Woes Dent Sentiment
    • Turkey Malaise Prompts Japan Manager to Keep Powder Dry on Lira
    • OIL TENDER: Pertamina Is Said to Buy 3 Grades for Nov.- Dec.
    • U.S. Gets 1st Indonesian Lalang Crude Oil in at least 5 Years
    • Lira Looms Over Emerging Markets With Turkey White-Knuckle Ride
    • Indonesia Opens Bid for Six Oil and Gas Blocks
    • Bank Indonesia Absorbs $4.39B Through Overnight Term Deposit
    • Indonesia, Russia Form Working Group to Finalize Counter Trade
    • PALM OIL: Drops Most in a Month on Soy Slump, Trade War Tension
    • Bank Indonesia Adds $260 Million Through FX Swap Auction
    • Wilmar 2Q Profit Jumps on Oilseed Crush Margins, Tropical Oils
    • Emerging Market ETFs Rise for 4th Week in $2.78 Bln Streak
    • Indonesia Raises IDR500B in Private Placement of Islamic Bonds
    • AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ): MSCI Index Review Wrap: 14 China Stocks Added Globally
    • Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ): U.S., EM Stocks That Are Forming Major Technical Chart Patterns
    • S&P 500 down 0.4% to 2,821.93
    • JCI Index down 3.6% to 5,861.25
    • MXAP Index up 0.2% to 162.72
    • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 384.91
    • Crude Palm Oil down 1.7% to 2,204 ringgit/ton in Kuala Lumpur
    • Brent Futures up 0.3% to $72.80/bbl
    • Indonesia 10-year govt bond yield unchanged at 7.936%
    • LQ45 Index down 4.1% to 923.23
    • Indonesian rupiah down 0.8% to 14,595/USD
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  • Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia (TKIM IJ): Initiation: World’s Lowest Cash-Cost Pulp Producer

    Daiwa-Bahana Sekuritas
    Gregorius Gary (
    Andri Ngaserin (
    See More

    Rating: BUY (Initiation)
    Target price: IDR20,600 (Initiation)
    Share price: IDR14,225

    To see the full version of this report, please open

    Summary: We initiate coverage on Tjiwi Kimia (TKIM) with a BUY rating and 12-month TP of IDR20,600. Our TP is based on a target PER multiple of c.12x applied to our average 2018-19F EPS and implies 45% upside potential. Despite TKIM’s recent strong share price performance (up almost 4x ytd), we believe TKIM’s risk-reward remains attractive. Our positive view is mainly driven by: 1) our bullish view on the pulp and paper price outlook given tightening global supply-demand conditions and more importantly, 2) growing net profit share from its associate company, OKI (not listed; 49.1% owned by TKIM). We estimate these factors combined should translate into a strong net profit CAGR of 39% over 2018-20F, thus supporting its valuation to further re-rate going forward.

    New factory OKI is probably the lowest cash-cost pulp producer in the world, thus driving TKIM’s profit growth. We estimate TKIM’s net profit at USD320/424mn for 2018F/2019F, respectively, driven by its new mill OKI contributing USD305/424mn for the respective years. OKI, which started operation in 3Q17 and is in the process of ramping up its production volume (1Q18: 550 k tons; annualized utilization rate: 79%). In turn, OKI’s profit contribution should be driven by its pulp utilization rising from 79% in 1Q18 to 100% in 2019 (pulp volume: 2.5/2.8mn tons in 2018F/2019F) with an EBITDA/ton of c.USD480. OKI has a 25% lower cash cost per ton vs. its sister company Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper [INKP IJ, IDR19,300, BUY], according to management (for more on INKP, please see our initiation report “Papermania”, 8 March 2018). The newer plant is designed for low cost and has : i) renewable energy utilization, ii) new machinery, and iii) a strategic location (close to its major forest concession areas). Indeed at a cash-cost per ton of c.USD210/ton, OKI ranks as the most efficient globally (see exhibit 6), and likely most profitable.

    OKI’s eligibility for tax holiday to provide further earnings upside: Given the sizeable amount of new investment made through the mill development (c.USD4bn), OKI is eligible to claim a tax holiday from the government. The tax holiday program will be applicable for as long as 10 years under the scheme of 8 years zero-percent tax and 2 years (year 9th and year 10th) of 50% tax-rate discount. According to management, the administration for the tax holiday claim is already being processed. However, given its early stage of operation, we assume OKI starts its tax holiday in 2020F, and hence still apply a 25% corporate income tax rate for OKI in our 2019F model (0% for 2020F). If the tax holiday were to be applied in 2019, we estimate TKIM’s 2019F net profit would rise 45% y-y to USD1.2bn, driving up our fair-value estimate further to IDR24,525.

    Valuation still attractive at current levels: TKIM shares trade at 2018F/2019F PERs of 10/7x, respectively. We see this as undemanding, given its global peers are trading at 2018F/2019F mean PERs of 14/11x, based on the Bloomberg consensus. Also, we believe TKIM is more attractive than INKP given its i) lower valuation (INKP: PER of 10/9x in 2018F/2019F), ii) higher ROE (TKIM: 24% vs. INKP’s 18% in 2018F) and iii) stronger earnings growth profile (TKIM: 39% vs. INKP: 13% CAGR in 2018-20F), on our forecasts.
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  • [Forwarded from Liza Suryanata]
    SMRA mulai berusaha naik ke atas MA10/1010. Status : Spec. Buy, average up : above 1040. Next target : MA20/1080, MA50/1200
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  • LG: CTRA TP Rp 1700

    The Cheapest & Laggard Stock

    Three reasons why we like CTRA
    See More

    We initiate CTRA with a Buy and a TP of 1,700 (44% upside) on the back of: 1) Nation-wide exposure, made even better post-CTRS 100% incorporation, 3) Main beneficiary of currently cheap, incentive-rich Indonesia mortgage, and 3) Potential upside from government’s nation-wide infrastructure strengthening effort given their asset distribution. 

    The first to absorb commodity-driven demand surge

    As of now, CTRA operates 71 projects spread across the country, while 35% are being located within Indonesia’s top-3 regions with highest growth rate. As commodity prices began steadily creep in value, we expect region’s average income to increase as well, thus giving CTRA an edge over its competition as none other listed developer has as widely-spread asset distribution as they do.


    Our TP is derived using DCF for both development property and capitalization on 2017’s NOI for investment property (see p.3 for valuation details). CTRA currently trades at 18.7x 2017 PE and 16% discount to its replacement cost.

    Research Division

    PT. Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia, Tbk.

    18th Fl, Artha Graha Building

    Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 52-53, Jakarta 12190

    Phone : (021) 2924-9088 Fax. : (021) 2924-9163

    Mail :
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  • proudly presents :

    Workshop Saham by Liza Suryanata
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  • WIKA: Clarification on HSR cancellation rumor
    • Yesterday, WIKA share price dropped by -3.7%, deepest among the peers’ as there was market rumor on cancellation of HSR project.
    • We checked with WIKA’s management, it mentioned that the project remains on going despite delay on loan disbursement. It mentioned that KCIC has fulfilled all the condition of precedents required by CDB. Hence, total loan of US$5.9bn with 2% fixed rate for 40 years an 10 years grace period is estimated to be disbursed by end of Aug-17.
    • Despite delay in HSR project realization, WIKA mentioned that it will still achieve its FY17F target net profit of Rp1.2tr supported by better than expected other projects realization progress.
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  • Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Daily Focus (July 7, 2017)
    Research Team (

    Market comment by Andy Wibowo (
    We expect that JCI to trade lower today on the back of fewer US hiring employee data in June. US ADP employment change stood at 158,000 in June, while survey showed at 188,000. Furthermore, WTI is currently trading below USD45.0/barrel for this morning, which means that will be additional negative sentiment for JCI today.
    See More

    Market Indicator
    JCI: 5,849.58 (+0.42%)
    EIDO: 26.92 (-0.92%)
    DJIA: 21,320.04 (-0.74%)
    FTSE100: 7,337.28 (-0.41%)
    USD/IDR: 13,392 (+0.20%)
    10yr GB yield: 6.93% (+11bps)
    Oil Price: 45.52 (+0.86)
    Foreign net purchase: -IDR517.3bn

    Foreign net purchase on single stocks (HOTS screen #0141)

    Most actively traded stocks (HOTS screen #0102)

    Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Equity Movers
    Investment Information Team (

    *U.S. crude-oil inventories down by 6.3 million barrels last week: EIA
    *U.S. trade deficit falls 2.3% to $46.5 billion in May
    *U.S. weekly jobless claims climb 4,000 to 248,000

    *ACES +7.8%. Ace Hardware shares jumped sharply after June sales report that rose 32.2% yoy as same-store sales growth climbed 22.8%.
    *MABA +25%. Indonesia Stock Exchange includes MABA shares into UMA category. Marga Abhinaya shares jumped sharply for 5 consecutive days since its debut on June 22.
    *INTA +4%. Intraco Penta seeks up to IDR421.6 billion from rights and warrants' issuance with 1.16 million new shares and 756 warrants, respectively.
    *PWON +1.5%. Moody's Investors raised Pakuwon Jati's debt rating from Ba3 to Ba2.
    *TBIG +8.2%. Broker CG raises Tower Bersama rating to ‘buy’.
    *GJTL -0.9%. Gajah Tunggal announced the voluntary recall of tire products distributed in US.

    Daily write up
    Malindo Feedmill (MAIN): Demand and costs are two big hurdles by Mimi Halimin (

    - We remain Hold on Malindo Feedmill (MAIN) with a target price of IDR1,180.

    - On the positive side, 2Q17 financial results likely improved QoQ on the back of the Ramadan celebration in May-June, and the government’s recent culling programs are also encouraging.

    - On the other hand, we are concerned about 1) muted revenue growth due to weak purchasing power, 2) higher raw material costs due to corn import restrictions, and 3) last year’s high base effect.

    <Market Headlines>

    BBNI will strengthen the mid-upper segment (Bisnis Indonesia)
    BBNI will encourage the growth of property industry in South Sulawesi, which was stagnant in the first half of the year.

    MDRN to change its business focus (Bisnis Indonesia)
    After all 7-Eleven outlets have been closed at the end of June 2017, MDRN will focus on distributing medical and printing equipment.

    Amman Mineral is ready to go public for this year (Investor Daily)
    PT Amman Nusa Tenggara (AMNT) as one of PT Medco Energi International Tbk (MEDC) subsidiaries will be ready to go public for this year. According to MEDC statements, AMNT has a special team to do that corporate action (go-public).

    Intraco Penta will do right issue of IDR232.6bn (Investor Daily)
    PT Intraco Penta Tbk (INTA) will issue new shares through right issue scheme with total target raising fund amounting IDR232.6bn. The exercise right is IDR200/share with ratio 13:7.

    Meikarta’s marketing sales reached IDR8tr (Kontan)
    PT Lippo Karawaci Tbk claimed that Meikarta has been sold 16,800 units.

    Realization of tax revenue in the first semester only up 9.6% (Kontan)
    Tax revenues realization during the first semester of 2017 reached IDR571.9tr. The amount is up 9.6% over the same period last year.

    (Jakarta Post)
    Jokowi, Erdogan write new chapter in RI, Turkey relations
    Govt reassures Japan involvement in rail project
    Q2 growth lower than expected: RI
    RI to enjoy easier payment process with new BI rule
    PLN vows to retain electricity prices
    BMRI to finally open full branch in Malaysia

    (Jakarta Globe)
    Indonesia proposes to raise 2017 budget deficit to close to legal limit
    Indonesia, Turkey agree to strengthen economic, defense ties
    Domestic smartphone sales jump 13% as Chinese brands expand market share
    MDRN to focus on other businesses after closing 7-eleven stores
    Malaysian palm firm FGV’s stake sale plan to Indonesia tycoons on hold: sources
    US prepared to use force on North Korea ‘if we must’: UN envoy
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  • Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Daily Focus (July 4, 2017)
    Research Team (

    Market comment by Taye Shim (
    As largely expected, JCI kicked off the first trading day of 2H17 with a solid rally leading the index to a new record high. This is broadly in line with our BUY INDONESIA theme which we introduced end of last year. China's Caixin manufacturing PMI posted surprise expansion for the month of June (reported 50.4 vs. consensus 49.5) which was in line with the official PMI. This was supported by US ISM manufacturing PMI which printed 57.8, beating estimates of 55.2. Foreign investors were net buyers (IDR477bn) of the local market driving the rally. #RANKING CHANGES: TLKM (new historical high) is now undisputed largest market cap (IDR482.8tr) name in the JCI followed by BBCA (IDR451.6tr) and HMSP (IDR447.8tr). #BUYING CRITERIA? TLKM rallied 6% yesterday, driven by aggressive foreign net buying. We think foreign investors were BUYing INDONESIA proxies based on valuations. Post-rally valuation (17F P/E) for TLKM stands at 20.63x, BBCA @ 19.95x, HSMP @ 33.05x
    See More

    Market Indicator
    JCI: 5,910.237 (+1.38%)
    EIDO: 27.39 (+0.66%)
    DJIA: 21,479.27 (+0.61%)
    FTSE100: 7,377.09 (+0.88%)
    USD/IDR: 13,368 (+0.15%)
    10yr GB yield: 6.88% (+5bps)
    Oil Price: 47.07 (+2.24%)
    Foreign net purchase: IDR476.8bn

    Foreign net purchase on single stocks (HOTS screen #0141)

    Most actively traded stocks (HOTS screen #0102)

    Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Equity Movers
    Investment Information Team (

    *ISM manufacturing index rises to 57.8 in June from 54.9, at highest level since 2014
    *IHS Markit manufacturing PMI falls to 52.0 in June from 52.7
    *Eurozone unemployment stays at 9.3% in May, lowest since March 2009
    *U.K. manufacturing PMI slips to 3-month low at 54.3 in June, missing forecasts
    *Eurozone June manufacturing PMI comes in at 57.4, compared with 57.3 flash estimate
    *Germany's June manufacturing PMI comes in at 59.6, compared with 59.3 flash estimate
    *France June manufacturing PMI comes in at 54.8, compared with 55.0 flash estimate

    *TLKM +5.9%, leading gain in Indonesian stocks today after better-than-expected June inflation data, signaling recovery in consumer purchasing power.
    *BIRD +3.9%. Blue Bird led gains in taxi company stocks amid positive sentiment over the government regulation of minimum and maximum prices for online car transportation services.
    *MLPL +0.9%. Multipolar signed a $250 million loan from Bank Negara Indonesia.
    *TINS +0.6%. In 1Q17, Timah posted a net profit of IDR66.5 billion after suffering a loss of IDR138.9 billion in the same period last year.
    *ADRO +3.1%. Adaro Energy is rated BBB- with a positive outlook from Japan Credit Agency (JCA).
    *ROTI -0.8%. In 1Q17, Nippon Indosari's net profit dropped by 65% yoy to IDR29.9 billion. Meanwhile, sales fell to IDR602.4 billion vs IDR610.9 billion.

    Daily write up
    Sawit Sumbermas Sarana (SSMS) : Every cloud has a silver lining by Andy Wibowo Gunawan (

    - With SSMS still keeping its floor CPO extraction rate at 23.0% for 2017F, we believe its total FFB production will still see domination from nucleus plantation this year.

    - As mentioned in our previous report on 2H17F palm oil sector outlook, “Dark clouds on the horizon”, SSMS targets a whopping 150,000 ha in total planted area by 2018 (from just 34,000 ha in 2014).

    - Given the S&P’s rating upgrade, SSMS will refinance its bank loans through bond issuance. In our view, this should be a good time for SSMS to refinance its debt due to lower cost of funds going forward.

    - We maintain our 12-month forward TP for SSMS at IDR1,900 with a Trading Buy call. We like SSMS mainly thanks to the young age profile of its palm oil plantations.

    <Market Headlines>

    Lotte Chemical Titan cut IPO targets (Kontan)
    Lotte Chemical Titan will do IPO USD1.12bn in Malaysia for expansion in Indonesia.

    SGRO targets to increase CPO production by 30% (Kontan)
    SGRO targets this year's CPO production volume to increase 20% to 30% compared to last year’s realization.

    MNCN to maintain 10% growth performance (Bisnis Indonesia)
    MNCN is optimistic to maintain a CAGR of 10% growth in the next 5 years, along with optimism that television industry will still dominate the Indonesian advertising market.

    Double digit credit growth in sight (Bisnis Indonesia)
    Bank’s credit growth in 1H17 is predicted to reach double digit, and will continue to improve in the next semester.

    Multipolar gets a USD250mn of loans (Investor Daily)
    PT Multipolar Tbk (MLPL) gets new borrowings amounting USD250mn from PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI). The proceeds of that loans will be used for refinancing and working capital.

    Nusantara Infrastructure will not distribute dividend (Investor Daily)
    PT Nusantara Infrastructure Tbk (META) will not distribute dividend. As a note that META’s net profit reached IDR220bn in 2016.

    (Jakarta Post)
    JCI at full throttle after long break
    Inflationary pressure may recede as food prices ease off
    Foreign tourists: Despite tension, RI sees jump in arrivals
    RI eyes euro bond issuance amid rating upgrade, stable market
    Govt to lobby FPNI to realize investment
    Coal price recovery encourages BYAN to aim higher

    (Jakarta Globe)
    Indonesian diaspora network presents leadership award to Jokowi for looking after expats
    Indonesia to join FATF in war against money laundering and terrorism funding
    Indonesia’s inflation rate picks up slightly in June
    Indonesia hopes for additional USD10bn inflows after S&P upgrade, president says
    It’s 7-eleven Indonesia, not the retail industry: Fitch
    Most SE Asia stocks gain as China data cheers, Indonesia at record closing high
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  • TOKYO -- Stocks and bonds pulled back noticeably toward the end of the week, as stock investors worldwide came to the realization that the U.S. and European central banks could start cutting back on their monetary easing programs sooner than they had thought.

    The Nikkei Stock Average dipped below 20,000 temporarily Friday for the first time in about two weeks. Greater than expected consumer price growth has fueled prospects for the European Central Bank to taper monetary easing. Surplus funds have spurred market upticks since the start of the year, but that optimism now must be reassessed.
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  • 20062017 (4)

    Sales realization among retailers until second week of June have not shown better performance compared to same period last year. However, retailers such as Ramayana and Matahari are still optimistic to book good performance during 2Q17. On the separate news, Jokowi will ensure all civil servants to receive their religious holiday allowance (THR) the latest by today, which we think might encourage consumer to spend. Therefore, maintain BUY on RALS and *LPPF*. (Bisnis Indonesia, Investor Daily)

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  • 20062017 (5)

    Yesterday we attended PRDA’s analyst meeting and took some key takeaways:
    • 2H17 progress development as follows: 1) 7-8 clinical labs; 2) one specialty clinic, PWHC in Jakarta (another one, PSHC, to open in 4Q17); 3) Jakarta regional reference lab; 4) 13-14 Point of care (POC); 4) 2 hospital labs. Reference lab in Medan is expected to finish in 2017 while the construction of Semarang reference lab to start in 2018 and fully operational in 2019.
    See More
    • Company highlights opportunity to collaborate with premium insurance and regional hospital to increase number of esoteric and utilization rate. Note that company has added 4 new tests in esoteric. Company will also starts operation next generation lab in Jakarta in June 2017 which will focus on personalized medicine.
    • Company is preparing for collection of cancer screenings test types which will be used to work together with BPJS. Company mentioned enormous demand from BPJS, but will cautiously select the project as it tend to have lower test per patient.
    Reiterate BUY on PRDA on the back of in line execution plan and solid company’s plan. PRDA is now trading cheap at EV/EBITDA FY17F of 13.4x, lower compared to its peers, MIKA at 28.8x and SILO at 18.8x EV/EBITDA FY17 on Bloomberg consensus, reiterate BUY.

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  • ADHI is seeking *IDR1.5t building construction contract* from the new LPCK’s *Meikarta project*. The apartment project is expected to start in 2H17 but will not entirely completed this year. Currently company is on the discussion to secure the payment terms with LPCK, according to CFO. Note ADHI 5M17 new contract was IDR5.3t or 23% of FY17 internal target and management predicts the new contract realization 6M17 will reach 45% of FY17 target. In addition, co delayed to spin-off Adhi Persada Gedung to 1Q18.

    ADHI to issue 5-year IDR3.5t bond with coupon rate of 9.25%. The bond will be listed on 3 Jul-17. Co will allocate IDR500b proceeds to repay the outstanding debt and the rest for working capital ie. LRT project.
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  • #BUMI New BOD - 7 (from present 4)

    Pres Dir - Ari Hudaya
    Director (CFO) - Andrew Beckham
    Independent Director (&Corp Secy) - Dileep Srivastava
    See More
    Director (HR & Legal) - RA Sri Dharmayanti.
    Lenders nominees (3)
    - Wayne Yao (CIC)
    -Haiyong Yu (CIC)
    - Ruang Xuefeng (China Development Bank)

    All resolutions approved in AGM

    - approval to 2016 accounts, discharge of boards & utilization of profit

    - appointment of RSM as auditor for 2017

    - New BOC
    Pres Com - Eddie Subari
    2 from CIC (Jinping Ma, Benjamin Mao)
    1 from Argentum Funds (bond holders- Tom Kearney, US citizen))
    2 Independent ie
    Kanaka Puradiredja & YA Didik Cahyanto
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  • *Moody's changes outlook for Indonesian banking system to positive from stable*
    2017-06-13 03:04:04.954 GMT
    Singapore, June 13, 2017

    -- Moody's Investors Service has changed its
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    outlook on the Indonesian banking system to positive from stable, reflecting their view that banks will see improvements in their
    operating environment, asset quality, as well as the capacity by the government to extend support when necessary.

    "Indonesian banks will benefit from an improving operating environment
    in the coming 12-18 months, as economic growth picks up due to
    supporting macroeconomic policies and a stronger market for the country's key commodities," says Srikanth Vadlamani, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Credit Officer.

    "Our baseline scenario assumes real GDP growth in Indonesia of 5.2% in
    2017 and 5.3% in 2018, compared to 5.0% in 2016," adds Vadlamani.

    Moody's conclusions are contained in its just-released Banking System
    Outlook for Indonesia, "Improving Operating Environment Drives Positive Outlook".

    Moody's assessment of Indonesia's banking system is based on five
    factors: operating environment (improving); asset quality and capital
    (improving/stable); funding and liquidity (stable); profitability and
    efficiency (improving); and systemic support (improving).

    The operating environment for the banks is, as indicated, improving on
    supporting macroeconomic policies and a stronger market for the country's key commodities..

    Asset quality will improve, driven by a recovery in corporate revenues
    that should constrain further rises in loan delinquency. Furthermore,
    this trend is accompanied by falling debt levels, which should result in
    stronger debt servicing capacity.

    In addition, despite potential faster loan growth, capitalization at
    Indonesian banks will remain broadly stable -- their structurally high
    core profitability and loan loss coverage ratios provide them with strong buffers to withstand asset quality deterioration, which in our view has already peaked.

    Funding and liquidity for the banking system will be stable. The pressure from faster loan growth will be modest overall as bank deposits will also be growing at a similar pace.

    The system's loan to deposit ratio (LDR) should stabilize at the 90%
    level, from 89% at end-March 2017. Yet some banks could see their LDR
    approach the regulatory LDR limit of 92%.

    Indonesian banks have little reliance on wholesale funding, and their balance sheets are liquid with government securities and other liquid assets comprising 27% of banking system assets at end-March 2017. All Moody's rated banks comfortably meet minimum Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) requirements.

    The banks' loan profitability will continue to be supported by net interest margins of around 5.3%, the widest amongst Indonesia's peers. Another profit contribution will come from lower credit costs, which took a heavy toll on earnings in 2016.

    Moody's further notes that system support is improving as the government's capacity to support banks benefits from the country's
    declining vulnerability to external shocks and lengthening track record
    of macroeconomic stability and fiscal discipline.

    Moody's considers Indonesia a high support system, because of the importance of the banking system to the overall economy, as well as the government's demonstrated past records of systemic support.

    Moody's rates nine banks in Indonesia. These banks accounted for 64% of
    total system assets as of end-March 2017. The standalone baseline credit
    assessments (BCA) of the nine banks range from ba2 to baa3, with an asset-weighted average of ba1.

    The local and foreign currency deposits for Bank Central Asia Tbk (P.T.), Bank Tabungan Negara (P.T.), PT Bank
    CIMB Niaga Tbk, Bank Rakyat Indonesia (P.T.), Bank Mandiri (P.T.), Bank
    Danamon Indonesia TBK (P.T.) and Bank Negara Indonesia TBK (P.T.) are
    all rated Baa3 and the outlooks for their ratings are positive, with the
    exception of Bank Permata TBK (P.T.) (Baa3 negative, ba2) and Pan Indonesia Bank TBK (P.T.) (Baa3 stable, ba2)
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  • From RX
    Today's Highlights
    ****************sales commentary*****************
    May cement volume indicated INTP benefited from improvement in retail spending in ex-Java on the back of better commodity prices, as evidenced by INTP’s market share gain in ex-Java and healthy bag volumes increase of 6.5% YoY. Meanwhile SMGR benefits more from infra projects in Java judging from its better performance in bulk volume in Java. The sector remains underowned with potential for earnings upgrade and beneficiary of anticipated higher public spending in 2H and property cycle. Key to watch is the industry utilization rate which should bottom in 2017. INTP chunky 88% dividend payout recently also signal the end of capacity expansion, and should ease concern on additional supply. Nathania maintains Outperform on the sector, with preference on Java-centric INTP. At 19x PE still attractive in the context of trough earnings.
    Cement: sign of commodity-led recovery?
    See More
    SMGR reported steady volumes in May 2017, with domestic sales growing at 3.6% YoY vs 4M17 at 4.1% YoY. We note that the incumbent also lost market share on a MoM basis from 41.8% to 40.0%, due to competition in Central and Eastern Java. Note that its peer Indocement (INTP IJ, Rp17,800, Outperform, TP: Rp18,800), in contrast, reported a MoM market share gain. Meanwhile, its ex-Java YoY growth trends seem to be mirroring those of the sector, with improvement in Sumatra but weaker demand in Sulawesi.
    Beneficiary of bulk demand, but losing bag volume momentum. SMGR's bulk volumes increased by 16% YoY and bag decreased by 3% YoY. In contrast, INTP's bag volumes are doing relatively better at 6.5% YoY and bulk volumes doing fairly at 4.1% YoY. Marrying this data point with INTP's strong market share grab in ex-Java, we believe that INTP has benefited from the improvement in retail spending in ex-Java on the back of a better commodities environment. Meanwhile, SMGR is a bigger beneficiary of the infra projects speeding up in Java, and hence the better performance in bulk volumes.
    Prices steadying, but May a seasonally strong month for price. The pricing decline reversed by +0.1% MoM, but we still need to see further improvements in the coming month to note this as a trough. May is also seasonally a strong month in terms of prices.
    SMGR reported domestic and total sales volume growth of 3.6% and 9.6% YoY, respectively, for the month of May. Its domestic volume growth is trailing behind the sector's 6.6% YoY improvement.
    Java biggest growth contributor, but market share seems to be falling. The biggest growth contributor is from the Java-centric Semen Gresik brand, with 8.8% YoY. However, this figure is trailing further behind the industry's improvement of 11.7%. We also note that the industry's Java volumes grew by 11.3% MoM, whereas Gresik only posted a 2.6% MoM improvement.
    Sumatra and Sulawesi gaining market share, but mixed demand momentum. Meanwhile, its Sumatra-based Semen Padang rebounded to 5.8% YoY growth after consecutive months of YoY declines since Sept 2016. Sulawesi-based brand Tonasa, however, reported another bad month with -12% YoY. On a MoM basis, however, the industry did worse than the incumbent.
    Bulk supporting overall demand. Bag volumes fell 2.6% YoY for the month, while bulk volumes posted a healthy growth at 16.3% YoY. This is a contrast to what its peer INTP reported, with bag and bulk both up by 6.5% and 4.1% YoY.
    Also read:
    Indocement (INTP IJ) - 5M17: Healthy volumes with MoM market share grab
    Indonesia cement – 4M17: clear improvements led by Java
    Indonesia cement sector - Java making a comeback?

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  • Bahana (DX)
    Recommendation & outlook: *Upgrade sector to NEUTRAL and JPFA to BUY*
    At this stage, we are upgrading our sector view to NEUTRAL as the government takes a more proactive approach to stabilizing chicken prices, but the effect is yet to be seen. In our view, the 5-day culling program will only support broiler prices temporarily (1-2 weeks), unlike the culling initiation program at end-2015, where the government required the culling of up to 6mn parent stock (PS) that can lead to lower FS production over one semester.

    On stock picks, we are maintaining our preference for *JPFA within the sector*, given its attractive valuation, low net gearing level, well-diversified business, and the main beneficiary of stable chicken prices given its highest sales exposure to broiler and DOC products. As their share prices have corrected with limited downside potential to our target prices, we are upgrading CPIN (CPIN IJ, IDR3,030, HOLD) and MAIN (MAIN IJ, IDR1,095, HOLD) to HOLD with unchanged TPs of IDR2,900 (15x FY17F PE) and IDR1,100 (8.5x FY17F PE), while for JPFA (JPFA IJ, IDR1,295, BUY), we *upgrade to BUY from HOLD with an unchanged TP of IDR1,700* (12x FY17F PE).
    See More

    Upside risks: Successful government implementation on supply stabilization and stronger IDR. Downside risks: Unsustainable chicken prices post the culling effect and high domestic corn prices.
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  • Potential recovery ahead would hinge on whether we see stabilization of saturation in the legacy segment. Voice and SMS have been falling at an average rate of 10% per quarter. Further deceleration would need to be compensated by significant acceleration in data segment. This would need to come from further cut in data allowance. Success of data monetization would hinge on finding the right balance between bonus quota reduction and consumption elasticity. With the highest data user and data consumption per subscriber/month, further reduction in data allowance might be the right button to push. This, however, would be a challenging task to deliver in the subsequent quarter, as it would translate to at least one quarter of high single digit revenue growth and two quarters of 15%-16% YoY revenue growth in order to achieve its 2017F target of rowing in line with the sector average of 8%-9%. As such, we maintain our cautious optimistic stance on EXCL. Reiterate HOLD with unchanged TP of IDR3,000.
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  • Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Daily Focus (June 2, 2017)
    Research Team (

    Market comment by Giovanni Dustin (
    We expect JCI to trade flat today. We also expect a slow day for oil-related stocks (i.e. commodities), as global crude oil price continue its declining trend, triggered by higher production from key producers. However, we believe that macro trends still pin points to a positive outlook for Indonesia. As a reminder, MSCI rebalance may kick in today (effective date June 1, however, Indonesia was closed yesterday), but we suspect most investors to have already positioned ahead since MSCI rebalance announcement on May 15.
    See More

    Market Indicator
    JCI: 5,738.16 (+0.78%)
    EIDO: 26.90 (+1.28%)
    DJIA: 21,144.18 (+0.65%)
    FTSE100: 7,543.77 (+0.32%)
    USD/IDR: 13,307 (-0.12%)
    10yr GB yield: 6.95% (-1bps)
    Oil Price: 48.36 (+0.08%)
    Foreign net purchase: -IDR476.6bn

    Foreign net purchase on single stocks (HOTS screen #0141)

    Most actively traded stocks (HOTS screen #0102)

    Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Equity Movers
    Investment Information Team (

    *U.S. crude-oil inventories drop 6.4 million barrels last week: EIA
    *ISM May new orders up 2 points to 59.5%
    *Construction spending falls 1.4% in April
    *May ISM manufacturing was 54.9%, versus forecast of 55%
    *May final manufacturing PMI was 52.7

    *LSIP +2.6%. London Sumatra will distribute IDR35 per share dividend, equivalent to 40% of its 2016 net profit.
    *BISI +7.7%. Sales of corn seeds grew 38.7% in 1Q17.
    *KRAS +24.2% amid sentiment of downward in steel raw material prices which will benefit producers.
    *BRMS +8.9%. EGM approved Bumi Resources Minerals' plan to issue 36.75 billion B series of shares without HMETD at an exercise price of IDR84 per share.
    *ANTM +5.4%. Aneka Tambang started sales of low grade nickel ore overseas after receives the recommendation of mineral ore exports from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources.
    *GIAA +1.6%. Garuda is preparing 61,324 seats for additional flights in anticipation of a passenger surge during the Lebaran season.
    *PSAB -1.9%. J resources posted a decrease in sales by 22.9% yoy in 1Q17 to USD49.8 million.

    Daily write up
    Garuda Indonesia (GIAA) - Interview with the new CEO: Clearer skies ahead by Taye Shim (

    - We recently sat down with the new CEO of Garuda Indonesia, Mr. Pahala Mansury, to discuss his strategy for the airline.

    - “5 Quick Wins Priority” program: Fleet cost optimization (renegotiations with 27 lessors to reduce aircraft rental costs), cost reduction (reducing overall cost structure), route optimization (implement a better route strategy and enhance connectivity by improving aircraft utilization), enhancing value from subsidiaries (increase subsidiaries’ revenue contributions and reduce their costs), and revenue management system enhancement (enhance distribution channels)

    - The new CEO also aims to improve the corporate culture, revisit the loyalty program, and improve the overall customer experience.

    - We reiterate our Buy recommendation and expect to see clearer skies ahead.

    <Market Headlines>

    LSIP disburses IDR35 per share dividend (Kontan)
    PT PP London Sumatra Indonesia Tbk (LSIP) disburses IDR35 per share dividend. Total dividend value is IDR237.53bn, equivalent to 40% of net profit 2016.

    Build mini plant, DPUM needs IDR700bn (Kontan)
    PT Duta Putra Utama Makmur Tbk (DPUM) will intensively do expansion until next year. The proof is this fishery company has calculated capital expenditure budget in 2018 will reach IDR700bn.

    WSBP achieved IDR300bn loan from BRI syariah (Investor Daily)
    WSBP has signed a loan facility of IDR300bn from Bank BRI Syariah. The loan will be used for financing the 2nd section of Cimanggis-Cibitung Toll Ways project.

    June, PPRO aims to get marketing sales of IDR1.3tr (Investor Daily)
    PPRO projects its marketing sales to reach IDR 1.2-1.3 trillion in June 2017. Until the end of April, marketing sales of PTPP subsidiaries has reached IDR900bn.

    (Jakarta Post)
    No option but Pancasila
    Indonesia hopes to bring back past glory
    Indonesians safely evacuated from Marawi
    Platts approves RI’s Karimun in S’pore pricing
    Gov’t, BI to fully apply e-tollgates in 2018
    New regulation to boost geothermal exploration
    Maritime highway unable to cut prices
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  • #Liza
    utk yg mau mandiri dengan teknikal klasik
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