• "Wall Street's five-day rally flickers out as earnings near"

    Wall Street dipped slightly on Friday, breaking a five-session rally, as energy shares declined and investors looked ahead to earnings season, which kicks off next week with Citigroup, JPMorgan and other big banks.

    Underpinned by optimism over China-U.S. trade talks and expectations of a slow pace of interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, the stock market's winning streak through Thursday added 6 percent to the S&P 500 and left it up about 10 percent from the 20-month low it hit around Christmas.
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    The S&P 500 on Friday ended down just 0.01 percent after recovering from a loss of 0.74 percent earlier in the session.

    "We've clawed our way back and now the market is just waiting ahead of the start of earnings season next week," said Donald Selkin, Chief Market Strategist at Newbridge Securities in New York. "We're just drifting."

    The S&P energy index was off 0.63 percent, leading declines among 11 sectors, as oil prices dropped after nine days of gains. [O/R]

    The financial index climbed 0.17 percent. Citigroup Inc, which will report earnings on Monday, rose 0.44 percent after agreeing to give shareholder ValueAct Capital more access to its books and board of directors.

    JPMorgan Chase & Co, which reports on Tuesday, declined 0.48 percent. Some bargain hunters are betting on a stronger 2019 for banks after the S&P 500 bank index fell 18.4 percent in 2018.

    U.S. stocks took a severe beating in the last quarter of 2018 due to worries over trade, interest rate hikes and a slowdown in global growth.

    Analysts expect S&P 500 companies' earnings per share to grow by 6.4 percent this year, compared with 23.5 percent in 2018, when they were supercharged by newly enacted corporate tax cuts, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.

    General Motors gave a strong earnings forecast for 2019, sending the automaker's shares surging 7.05 percent.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended down 0.02 percent at 23,995.95 points, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.21 percent to 6,971.48.

    "Wall Street's five-day rally flickers out as earnings near" -
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  • [08:50, 11/21/2018] +62 815-7319-0777: FR CGS-CIMB (YU) : Strategy | PDF
    Index change: free float adjusted market cap
    Author(s): Erwan TEGUH +62 (21) 30061720, Peter P. SUTEDJA, Namira LAHUDDIN

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    ■ The Indonesia Stock Market (IDX) shall adjust its two leading indices (LQ45 and IDX30) from market cap to free float adjusted in its Jan 19 review.
    ■ The change shall increase weighting of banking and infra/utilities/transport sector, while consumer goods’ weighting will decrease the most.
    ■ Key beneficiaries from weighting changes are BBCA, TLKM, BBRI, ASII, BMRI, KLBF, ADRO, INTP. Losers are HMSP, UNVR, GGRM, ICBP, PTBA.
    [08:51, 11/21/2018] +62 815-7319-0777: FR CGS-CIMB (YU) : Property Devt & Invt | PDF
    10M18 presales: weaker-than-expected run-rate from rupiah depreciation
    OVERWEIGHT - Maintained

    Author(s): Jovent GIOVANNY +62 (21) 3006 1727, Timothy HANDERSON, Leonardo TUKIMAN


    ■ Aggregate 10M18 presales (ex-JRPT) of Rp15.7tr-15.8tr formed 74% of FY18 target. Oct sales were slow amid lack of launches and Rp depreciation.
    ■ So far, we think BSDE has the highest likelihood of achieving its presales target in FY18, followed by PWON and CTRA.
    ■ Maintain OW with PWON and CTRA as our top picks. Upside risk is better-than-expected launches, which will depend on Rp and political stability.
    [08:51, 11/21/2018] +62 815-7319-0777: FR CGS-CIMB (YU) : HM Sampoerna | PDF
    Structural de-rating due to outflows
    HMSP IJ / HMSP.JK | REDUCE - Downgrade | Rp3,420.00 tp:Rp2,800.00▼
    Mkt.Cap:US$27,225.00m | Avg.Daily Vol:US$5.83m | Free Float:7.50%
    Author(s): Patricia GABRIELA +62 (21) 3006 1734,


    ■ Since the announcement of the weighting base change for LQ45 and IDX30 to free float adjusted, HMSP’s share price has fallen by 13%.
    ■ HMSP’s weighting cut in the indices is the most significant, from 10.2% (as at end-Oct 18) to just 2.1% by Feb 19 (when rebalancing occurs).
    ■ If HMSP is valued at a 63.2% premium to its DDM, our TP is Rp2,800 or a 35% discount from 5 years’ P/E average. Downgrade from Add to Reduce.
    [08:51, 11/21/2018] +62 815-7319-0777: FR CGS-CIMB (YU) : Unilever Indonesia | PDF
    Weight loss hurts
    UNVR IJ / UNVR.JK | REDUCE - Downgrade | Rp41,475.00 tp:Rp31,700.00▼
    Mkt.Cap:US$21,657.00m | Avg.Daily Vol:US$6.91m | Free Float:15.00%
    Personal Products
    Author(s): Patricia GABRIELA +62 (21) 3006 1734,


    ■ UNVR’s share price has declined over the past 2 weeks as the talks of a change in LQ45 and IDX30 to free float adjusted weightings materialised.
    ■ Based on IDX’s assessment, UNVR’s weighting in LQ45 could drop from 7.6% at end-Oct 18 to 3.1% in Feb 19 (after rebalancing).
    ■ This may hit its lofty valuation which may revert to pre-1Q16 levels when it traded at 158% premium to its DDM, in our estimate. Cut TP to Rp31,700.
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  • Yuanta (FS)

    Sri Rejeki Isman (SRIL IJ)
    Indonesia’s textile giant

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    ► With 56% of the total revenue came from the export sales, SRIL’s earnings are considered naturally hedged
    against Rupiah depreciation. Furthermore, the company may be benefitted from the trade war between China
    and US, as there is rising demand from US retailers to non-China garment producers, including SRIL.

    ► An integrated textile and garment company... SRIL is Indonesia’s leading vertically integrated textile-garment
    producer with FY17F total revenue of USD 759mn, which was significantly higher than other major players in the
    country, including Pan Brothers (USD 549mn) and Ever Shine Tex (USD35mn). The company engages in both
    upstream and downstream processes, including spinning, weaving, dyeing/printing, and garment, which allows
    more optimal coordination and swift production process. SRIL’s production facilities are on close proximity to
    each other and an international port, allowing it to have transportation cost efficiency. Company’s operational
    area in Central Java is having lower wages level compared to its neighboring regions, West Java and East Java,
    resulting in competitive labor cost. In addition, Central Java is also known as one of the biggest textile centers in
    the country, providing the company with skillful workforce

    ► .. with world-class consumer base. With top-notch expertise in the textile business, SRIL has been appointed as
    one of major suppliers of army uniforms to several nations, including NATO members. It also supplies big
    fashion brands such as H&M, Disney, Guess, Uniqlo, in addition to retailers such as Walmart, TJ Maxx, and Sears.
    In domestic market, the company manufactures uniforms for companies, both private and government agencies.
    Aside from its garment products, SRIL also supplies prominent buyers such as Japanese trading company
    Marubeni Corporations, Belgian textile trader Chemitex, Chinese textile company Shengrun Textile, etc. With
    worldwide and diversified customer base, SRIL is expected to have lower business risk as it does not need to be
    dependent to just a few customers.

    ► Naturally hedged against Rupiah depreciation. SRIL is considered to be naturally hedged against currency
    fluctuation. About 53% of its revenue in 9M18 came from export sales and the exposure to export sales was in
    increasing trend over the past four years. On the other hand, the value of its raw material import was roughly
    about 44% of total revenue, in addition to USD denominated financing costs which accounted about 6.6% of
    9M18 total revenue.

    ► Opportunity from US-China trade war. Ongoing trade war between US and China may bring opportunity for the
    company to regain share in US markets, which has been falling in the past two years. Rupiah depreciation,
    attractive cost structure, and SRIL’s well-known expertise would provide opportunity for the company to get
    some orders previously fulfilled by China producers. The management expects export to US increasing to
    around 6% of total revenue next year from around 4% currently.

    ► Valuation. SRIL is currently trading at 5.4x LTM P/E, which is at the lower end of range compared to peers.
    However, taking out the one-time gain from the acquisition of subsidiaries, it is trading at around 8x LTM P/E
    vs. peers’ of between 2.2x-32.5x. Meanwhile, the counter’s EV/sales and EV/EBITDA are at 1.2x and 5.8x,
    relatively at the middle of the range of 0.2x-2.1x and 1.7x-14.8x, respectively. In the past twelve months, the
    company managed to grow its sales at higher pace of 26.1% YoY compared to most of its peers of below 20%
    YoY. Next year, it targets a conservative 15% YoY revenue growth supported by major capacity expansion in the
    past two years.
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  • [08:55, 11/1/2018] +62 815-7319-0777: FR CGS-CIMB (YU) : Ace Hardware Indonesia | PDF
    9M18 results: strong operations
    ACES IJ / ACES.JK | ADD - Maintained | Rp1,370.00 tp:Rp1,900.00
    Mkt.Cap:US$1,543.00m | Avg.Daily Vol:US$1.24m | Free Float:40.00%
    See More
    Author(s): Kevie ADITYA +62 (21) 3006 1738,


    ■ ACES’s 9M18 core net profit of Rp662bn (+25% yoy) formed 70% of consensus FY18F estimate, slightly above vs. 3-year average of 66%.
    ■ Amid investors’ concernsover the impact of rupiah depreciation (against US$), ACES’s GPM improved by 30bp qoq to 46.5%.
    ■ Retain forecasts and Rp1,900 TP. ACES remains our top sector pick.
    [08:55, 11/1/2018] +62 815-7319-0777: FR CGS-CIMB (YU) : Indofood CBP | PDF
    King of noodles
    ICBP IJ / ICBP.JK | HOLD - Maintained | Rp8,650.00 tp:Rp9,200.00▲
    Mkt.Cap:US$6,626.00m | Avg.Daily Vol:US$1.96m | Free Float:19.50%
    Food & Beverages
    Author(s): Patricia GABRIELA +62 (21) 3006 1734,


    ■ 9M18 net profit rose 15% yoy to Rp3.5tr on 3Q18 net profit rising 26% yoy.
    ■ Majority of its segment sales improved in 3Q18, with instant noodle forming 66% of total sales. Noodle EBIT contribution stayed at 88% in 3Q18.
    ■ ICBP’s high reliance on instant noodles could be a major risk to earnings growth, as we expect volume growth to normalise in FY19F. Maintain Hold.
    [08:56, 11/1/2018] +62 815-7319-0777: FR CGS-CIMB (YU) : Total Bangun Persada | PDF
    First read: 9M18 above expectations, but earnings growth could remain challenging
    TOTL IJ / TOTL.JK | HOLD - Maintained | Rp515.00 tp:Rp580.00
    Mkt.Cap:US$115.40m | Avg.Daily Vol:US$0.02m | Free Float:38.00%
    Author(s): Aurelia BARUS +62 (21) 3006 1721, Namira LAHUDDIN


    ■ 9M18’s results beat our expectations due to better-than-expected GPM. However, core NP of Rp177bn showed negative growth of 6% yoy.
    ■ Sustainable GPM at 17-18% and the absence of impairment of receivables/loss bookings till the end of FY18F could be upside risks.
    ■ We maintain our Hold rating with an unchanged TP of Rp580, still based on 8.7x P/E FY19F (-2 s.d. below 3-year mean).
    [08:57, 11/1/2018] +62 815-7319-0777: FR CGS-CIMB (YU) : Economic Update | PDF
    3Q18 direct investments
    Author(s): Yee Ping LIM +60 (3) 2261 9083, Michelle CHIA


    ■ Direct investments (DI) fell 5.7% yoy to US$12.5bn in 3Q18 due to a deeper contraction in foreign direct investments (FDI) of 20.2% yoy to US$6.6bn.
    ■ DI in manufacturing sector was the key laggard. DI in utilities, transportation and construction were supported by government’s national strategic projects.
    ■ Falling FDI, softer exports and volatile portfolio flows put a greater burden on reducing imports to lower current account deficit and ease rupiah weakness.
    [09:00, 11/1/2018] +62 815-7319-0777: FR CGS-CIMB (YU) : Indofood Sukses Makmur | PDF
    CBP remains the growth driver
    INDF IJ / INDF.JK | HOLD - Maintained | Rp5,975.00 tp:Rp6,500.00
    Mkt.Cap:US$3,446.00m | Avg.Daily Vol:US$2.50m | Free Float:49.90%
    Food & Beverages
    Author(s): Patricia GABRIELA +62 (21) 3006 1734,


    ■ 9M18 net profit reached Rp2.8tr (-14% yoy), within our expectations at 80% of our full-year forecast but below consensus expectations at 67% of theirs.
    ■ Consumer branded and agribusiness 3Q18 EBIT margin improved, but Bogasari remained under pressure due to the late price adjustment.
    ■ We lift our FY18-20F EPS forecasts but are still below consensus. Although valuation is -1.5 s.d. 5-year mean, we maintain Hold in absence of catalysts.
    [09:00, 11/1/2018] +62 815-7319-0777: FR CGS-CIMB (YU) : Mitra Adi Perkasa | PDF
    Steady 9M18 results
    MAPI IJ / MAPI.JK | ADD - Maintained | Rp800.00 tp:Rp1,000.00
    Mkt.Cap:US$872.30m | Avg.Daily Vol:US$0.67m | Free Float:44.00%
    Author(s): Kevie ADITYA +62 (21) 3006 1738,


    ■ MAPI’s solid 9M18 core net profit of Rp691bn (+87% yoy) exceeded expectations. This was on the back of strong 8% 9M18 SSSG.
    ■ Restructuring at its department store unit lifted its EBIT margin from 0.2% in 9M17 to 7.5% in 9M18, leading to a 90bp yoy EBIT margin risefor MAPI.
    ■ MAPI's strong fundamentals justified its 29% share price increase YTD. Maintain Add and Rp1,000 TP
    [09:01, 11/1/2018] +62 815-7319-0777: FR CGS-CIMB (YU) : Ramayana Lestari | PDF
    9M18 results: A sweet surprise
    RALS IJ / RALS.JK | ADD - Maintained | Rp1,190.00 tp:Rp1,500.00
    Mkt.Cap:US$554.70m | Avg.Daily Vol:US$0.33m | Free Float:30.80%
    Author(s): Kevie ADITYA +62 (21) 3006 1738,


    ■ RALS’s 3Q18 results were a major positive surprise as it recorded Rp40bn core net profit, in contrast to a Rp3bn core net loss in 3Q17.
    ■ 9M18 results exceeded expectationsdue to a winning combination of solid GPM, better operating leverage and supermarket turnaround.
    ■ As such, we see potential upside risk to our punchy 41.7% yoy earnings growth forecast. Maintain Add with an unchanged TP of Rp1,500.
    [09:01, 11/1/2018] +62 815-7319-0777: FR CGS-CIMB (YU) : Cement | PDF
    3Q18 results: another quarter of stark divergence, especially in opex; maintain UW
    UNDERWEIGHT - Maintained

    Author(s): Jovent GIOVANNY +62 (21) 3006 1727, Timothy HANDERSON, Leonardo TUKIMAN


    ■ Both SMGR and INTP published their results today; SMGR beat expectations while INTP fell significantly short. It has been two quarters of divergence.
    ■ The divergence mainly came from costs, especially opex. Historical performance suggests that the cost/margin deviation used to be minimal.
    ■ Maintain Underweight with our preference for INTP. Better operating environment from the acquisition of Holcim by an incumbent is an upside risk.
    [09:03, 11/1/2018] +62 815-7319-0777: FR CGS-CIMB (YU) : Gudang Garam | PDF
    Weak 3Q18 results; expect a surprise in 4Q18F
    GGRM IJ / GGRM.JK | ADD - Maintained | Rp72,300.00 tp:Rp80,000.00▼
    Mkt.Cap:US$9,150.00m | Avg.Daily Vol:US$4.47m | Free Float:24.50%
    Author(s): Patricia GABRIELA +62 (21) 3006 1734,


    ■ 9M18 net profit grew 6% yoy, in line at 69% of Bloomberg consensus's full-year forecast but below ours at 65%. 3Q18 net profit declined 4% yoy.
    ■ Sales growth was robust at 16% yoy in 3Q18. However, 3Q18 net profit declined by 4% yoy due to lower GPM.
    ■ Volume momentum and ASP hikes in 4Q18F should support FY18F earnings growth. Maintain Add.
    [09:03, 11/1/2018] +62 815-7319-0777: FR CGS-CIMB (YU) : Property Devt & Invt | PDF
    3Q18 recap: miss due to sluggish revenue recognition; PWON was an exception
    OVERWEIGHT - Maintained

    Author(s): Jovent GIOVANNY +62 (21) 3006 1727, Timothy HANDERSON, Leonardo TUKIMAN


    ■ Residential developers under our coverage posted 9M18 net profit of Rp3.9tr (-25% yoy), behind at 46%/52% of our/Bloomberg consensus’ FY estimates.
    ■ All developers were below expectations largely due to sluggish revenues (from slower revenue recognition), except PWON which beat expectations.
    ■ Aggregate net gearing was stable yoy and qoq at 29% in 3Q18. Maintain Overweight as underperformance has priced-in earnings downside risk.
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  • SMCB

    STRATEGY 2022

    The execution of Strategy 2022 – “Building for Growth” is at full speed and well on track on all four value drivers: Growth, Simplification & Performance, Financial Strength and Vision & People.
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    On Growth: to date four bolt-on acquisitions have already been completed in highly attractive markets, the most recent being the acquisition of Denver (US)-based ready-mix concrete manufacturer Metro Mix in August. The July 2018 acquisition of the Vritz sandpit (FR) helps secure reserves in a well-positioned market for the next three decades. The business segments Aggregates and Ready-Mix Concrete achieved improved margins, a significant step in the implementation of the company’s Strategy 2022 - “Building for Growth”.

    On Simplification & Performance: with the successful implementation of a new operating model based on a corporate-light structure and simple reporting lines, the company has achieved significant progress in its CHF 400 million SG&A savings program. The execution of this program is ahead of plan and has started to deliver results in Q3. The corporate offices in Singapore and Miami have been closed and the Zurich and Paris offices will be closed within Q1 2019.

    On Financial Strength: since June 2018, more than CHF 1.3 billion has been successfully refinanced at attractive terms leading to an improved debt maturity profile and a decrease in financing costs. Progress towards the divestment target of CHF 2 billion has been made.
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  • Sector Update
    Tobacco - The expansion of SKM market share continues by Christine Natasya (
    Oct 18, 2018

    - Based on our observation, companies under our coverage (GGRM & HMSP) have sold more lower-priced products in 1H18. In our view, lower-income people have deeper pockets for spending on items like cigarettes thanks to various populist/social aid policies (village fund, conditional cash transfers, etc.) that the government is implementing in an attempt to boost purchasing power as the election year approaches.
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    - We downgrade our call on the sector to Neutral.

    Therefore, our preference still lies with GGRM due to 1) it is the leading producer of SKM FF cigarettes in the market; 90% of GGRM’s sales come from SKM (vs. 67% at HMSP), 2) our EPS growth forecast for 2018 for GGRM is higher than HMSP (10% vs 4% YoY), 3) attractive valuation.
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  • Good morning,

    Dow plunges more than 800 points in worst drop since February, Amazon and tech shares lead the rout
    The tech sector had its worst day in seven years, leading the Dow to its worst day in eight months.

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    Dow.......25599 -831.8 -3.2%!!
    Nasdaq...7422 -315.97 -4.08%!!
    S&P 500..2786 -94.7 -3.29%!!

    FTSE........7146 -91.9 -1.27%
    Dax........11713 -264.7 -2.21%
    CAC.........5206 -112.3 -2.11%

    Nikkei.....23506 +36.7 +0.16%
    HSI.........26193 +20.2 +0.08%
    Shanghai..2726 +4.8 +0.18%
    ST Times..3132 -35.1 -1.11%
    Indo10Yr..8.6384 +0.0385 +0.45%
    INDOBex230.9331 +0.0644 +0.03%
    US10Yr......3.225 +0.017 +0.53%
    VIX...........22.96 +7.01 +43.95%!!

    USDIndx .....95.5080 -0.187 -0.20%
    Como Indx..198.12 -2.26 -1.13%
    (Core Commodity CRB)
    DJUSCL.......59.19 -2.61 -4.22%
    (Dow Jones US Coal Index) 

    IndoCDS...146.82 +0.18 +0.12%
    (5-yr INOCD5) 

    IDR........15200.5 -37.50 -0.25%
    Jisdor....15215 -18 -0.12
    IDR Fut..15406.5 +189.2 +1.24%!!

    Euro.........1.1530 +0.0036 +0.31%

    TLKM.......23.19 -0.32 -1.36%
    EIDO.........21.05 -0.44 -2.05%
    EEM..........39.54 -1.21 -2.97%

    Oil...........73.17 -1.79 -2.39%
    Gold ......1193.40 +1.90 +0.16%
    Timah...19022.50 +52.50 +0.28%
    Nickel...12710.00 -267.50 -2.06%

    Coal price.109.85 -1.10 -0.99%
    Coal price.108.40 -2.20 -1.99%
    Coal price....99.90 -0.90 -0.89%
    Coal price...99.10 -1.90 -1.88%
    (Nov/ Rotterdam)

    CPO(Sept) 2205 closed +0%
    Corn...........362.75 -1.75 -0.48%
    SoybeanOil 28.93 -0.33 -1.13%
    Wheat........510.50 -4.50 -0.87%

    Rubber.......172.90 -0.20 -0.12%

    Pulp(BHKP) - - -
    (02Okt- 08Okt)

    * : weekly

    (DE/ls 11-10-18)
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  • #Leading
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  • FR CGS-CIMB (YU) : Total Bangun Persada | PDF
    Muted guidance overshadows new contracts surprise
    TOTL IJ / TOTL.JK | HOLD - Maintained | Rp620.00 tp:Rp660.00▼
    Mkt.Cap:US$144.00m | Avg.Daily Vol:US$0.02m | Free Float:38.00%
    See More
    Author(s):Aurelia BARUS +62 (21) 3006 1721, Namira LAHUDDIN


    ■ The 8M18 new contracts booking is better than expected at Rp2.6tr, having already surpassed our previous new contracts estimate for the full year FY18F of Rp2.5tr.
    ■ But TOTL has guided for a hefty downward revision in FY18F revenue and net profit, both by 16%, blaming it on the current muted property market.
    ■ As such, we cut our core EPS in FY18-20F by 4.8-10.3%, leading to a lower TP of Rp660, based on 9.9x FY19F P/E (-1 s.d. below 3-year mean).
    ■ We keep our Hold call given: 1) its robust balance sheet and above peers’ and the market’s dividend yields; 2) share price may have bottomed, though lacking catalysts
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  • ■ We think there are potentially two negative surprises in store: 1) additional VAT at the distributor level, and 2) specific excise tax to cover the universal healthcare deficit.
    ■ Going by past experience, such as in 2014 when excise tax was flat in favour of a 10% regional tax, the net increase could again be capped at c.9-10%.
    ■ Given the ongoing cigarette industry consolidation, an aggressive hike would inflict more pain and job losses, something the government may avoid in an election year.
    ■ Our estimate is for a c.9% excise tax hike in 2019F, with stick prices to be announced in Sep/Oct 18. The state budget on 17 Aug should provide more clarity.
    See More
    ■ Maintain Overweight on the sector with our preference for GGRM.
    [15:50, 8/16/2018] +62 815-7319-0777: FR CGS-CIMb (YU) : Economic Update | PDF
    Aug 2018 BI meeting
    Author(s):Yee Ping LIM +60 (3) 2261 9083, Michelle CHIA


    ■ Bank Indonesia (BI) raised its 7-day Reverse Repo Rate (7DRRR) by 25bp to 5.50% in an effort to maintain financial stability and manage the current account deficit.
    ■ The rate hike is aimed at maintaining attractive yield differentials, particularly with US interest rates, to stem outflows of portfolio investments and further rupiah weakness.
    ■ Yesterday’s decision complements the government’s recent import reduction measures to rectify the deteriorating current account deficit.
    ■ However, the persistence of external uncertainty is likely to keep pressure on EMs, leading us to pencil in a further 25bp policy rate hike for a year-end target of 5.75%.
    [15:51, 8/16/2018] +62 815-7319-0777: FR CGS-CIMB (YU) : Cement | PDF
    Jul 18 volume: better-than-expected demand pick-up
    UNDERWEIGHT - Maintained
    Author(s):Jovent GIOVANNY +62 (21) 3006 1727, Timothy HANDERSON


    ■ National cement sales grew by 13% yoy (+91% mom) in Jul, which brought the cumulative 7M18 growth to 5% yoy.
    ■ Jun-Jul volume grew 4% yoy (vs. 5-yr avg of +1% yoy) despite a longer Lebaran holiday in Jun 18 – largely due to bag cement (+5% yoy) as opposed to bulk (flat).
    ■ Incumbents gained more traction in Jun-Jul (especially INTP and SMCB). Merah Putih and Bima slowed down, while Conch still grew at an impressive pace.
    ■ Our check suggests that retail pricing in Greater Jakarta has been stable since Apr.
    ■ We maintain Underweight amid steep valuations and higher costs outlook. INTP is ourpreferred pick over SMGR. Upside risk is stronger demand recovery.
    [15:52, 8/16/2018] +62 815-7319-0777: FR CGS-CIMb (YU) : Bank Permata | PDF
    2Q18 results: pick-up in loan growth and margin; drop in headline profit largely due to one-off item
    BNLI IJ / BNLI.JK | ADD - Maintained | Rp520.00 tp:Rp700.00
    Mkt.Cap:US$999.90m | Avg.Daily Vol:US$0.51m | Free Float:10.80%
    Author(s):Timothy HANDERSON +62 (21) 30061724, Jovent GIOVANNY


    ■ BNLI’s 1H18 net profit of Rp289bn (-53% yoy) was below at 42% of our FY18F estimate. Lower headline profit was due to a one-off gain from NPL sale in 1H17.
    ■ NIM improved to 4% in 1H18 from 3.8% in 1H17 largely due to lower cost of funds. We expect stable NIM in 2H as higher COF could be offset by strong loan growth.
    ■ Loan growth was robust (+11% yoy/+3% qoq), largely driven by retail (auto, mortgage, SME). Corporate loan also saw a pick-up although disbursements remain selective.
    ■ NPL improved to 4.3% in 2Q18 from 4.7% in 2Q17. SML rose to 13.6% in 2Q18 from 12.8% in 2Q17. Loans-at-risk rose improved to 20.5% in 2Q18 from 21.2% in 2Q17.
    ■ Maintain Add. BNLI is our top pick among the small banks
    [15:53, 8/16/2018] +62 815-7319-0777: FR CGS-CIMB (YU) : Consumer Discretionary - Overall | PDF
    Impact of new import restrictions
    OVERWEIGHT - Maintained
    Author(s):Kevie ADITYA +62 (21) 3006 1738, Patricia GABRIELA


    ■ News reports say the government plans to restrict imports of capital goods (for SOE), some 500 consumer goods and online sales imports, amid the financial volatility.
    ■ This is not a new fix. A similar policy was implemented a few years ago in a bid to stabilise the rupiah. The measures were relaxed once volatility subsided.
    ■ Any adverse impact would be short term, in our view. However, it could limit procurement or increase the cost to retailers with high imports, like ACES and MAPI.
    ■ Consumer staples should be largely unaffected given that they have lower import content and their import needs have few local substitutes.
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  • ■ Bank Indonesia (BI) raised its 7-day Reverse Repo Rate (7DRRR) by 25bp to 5.50% in an effort to maintain financial stability and manage the current account deficit.
    ■ The rate hike is aimed at maintaining attractive yield differentials, particularly with US interest rates, to stem outflows of portfolio investments and further rupiah weakness.
    ■ Yesterday’s decision complements the government’s recent import reduction measures to rectify the deteriorating current account deficit.
    ■ However, the persistence of external uncertainty is likely to keep pressure on EMs, leading us to pencil in a further 25bp policy rate hike for a year-end target of 5.75%.
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  • AGENDA 07 AGUSTUS 2018

    Agenda Emiten
    • Pencatatan/Listing Perdana di BEI : PT MD Pictures Tbk (FILM) Rp 210
    See More
    • Pubex IPO/Due Diligence : PT Madurasa Murni Indah Tbk
    • Cum Dividen Tunai : SMSM Rp 15
    • Non Deal Roadshow (NDR) : BTPS
    • HUT Ke 61 Tahun : SMGR

    Agenda Ekonomi
    • Indonesia : Rilis Statistik Cadangan Devisa Juli 2018
    • Indonesia : Lelang Surat Berharga Syariah Negara (SBSN) atau Sukuk Negara, Seri SBSN yang akan dilelang adalah seri SPN-S (Surat Perbendaharaan Negara - Syariah) dan PBS (Project Based Sukuk) untuk memenuhi sebagian dari target pembiayaan dalam APBN 2018
    • Indonesia : Jatuh Tempo Surat Berharga Negara Pemerintah Republik Indonesia seri Surat Berharga Syariah Negara seri SPNS07082018
    • Indonesia : Foreign Direct Investment YoY Q2 (6-7 Agustus 2018)
    • China : Foreign Exchange Reserves Jul
    • Japan : Household Spending Jun, Foreign Exchange Reserves Jul, Average Cash Earnings YoY Jun, Leading Economic Index Prel Jul, Coincident Index Prel Jun
    • United Kingdom : Halifax House Price Index Jul
    • United States : IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Aug, JOLTs Job Openings Jun, 4-Week Bill Auction

    • 02-12 Agustus 2018 : Gabungan Industri Kendaraan Bermotor Indonesia (Gaikindo) akan menyelenggarakan Gaikindo Indonesia International Auto Show (GIIAS) di Indonesia Convention Exhibition (ICE) BSD City

    • 4-10 Agustus 2018 : Pendaftaran pemilihan calon presiden dan wakil presiden untuk Pilpres 2019

    • 07 Agustus 2018 : PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (Telkom) akan meluncurkan Satelit Merah Putih dari Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida. Satelit ini akan memperkuat posisi TelkomGroup dalam bisnis satelit baik lokal maupun regional.

    • 07 Agustus 2018 : PT Krakatau Nippon Steel Sumikin (KNSS) akan mengadakan opening ceremony (?)

    • 07 Agustus 2018 : Maybank Roundtable - Invitation - INDY

    • 07 Agustus 2018 : Wakil Ketua DPR RI/Korkesra Mengadakan Peluncuran Buku yang berjudul "Mengapa Indonesia Belum Sejahtera? Sebuah Upaya Merekonstruksi Makna dan Indikator Kesejahteraan Indonesia"

    • 08-09 Agustus 2018 : JPMorgan Automotive Conference

    • 09 Agustus 2018 : Morgan Stanley Telecom & Media Corporate Access Day

    • 10 Agustus 2018 : LRT Kelapa Gading akan diresmikan (Proyek ini dimiliki oleh Jakpro dan dibangun oleh WIKA)

    • 13 Agustus 2018 : MSCI August 2018 Quarterly Index Review : Announcement date: August 13, 2018, Effective date: September 3, 2018

    • 13 Agustus 2018 : AS berencana menerapkan tarif tinggi, yaitu sampai 25% atas US$ 200 miliar produk impor China. Angka ini lebih tinggi dari sebelumnya yang sebesar 10%. (AS akan merilis daftar barang-barang China yang diajukan untuk dikenakan tarif : Bahan kimia dan ban, ratusan produk makanan juga tembakau, barang-barang elektronik termasuk komponen televisi, furnitur, sampai baja dan aluminium - tarif tambahan bagi China dapat berlaku setelah masa konsultasi publik berakhir pada 30 Agustus 2018)

    • 20-23 Agustus 2018 : Pemerintah US akan mengadakan audiensi publik terkait kebijakan Penerapan penambahan tarif impor produk China sebesar 15% dan membuat total tarif masuk menjadi 25% untuk total nilai perdagangan sejumlah USD 200 milyar dan melaksanakannya pada 30 Agustus 2018. Terkait kebijakan ini, China juga mengenakan tarif masuk produk US sebesar USD 60 milyar dengan mengajukan tarif sebesar 25% untuk LNG, bijih tembaga, panel surya, dan lain-lain

    • 15-16 Agustus 2018 : Credit Suisse Indonesia Conference (BBCA, BBTN, BIRD, BSDE, DOID, BWPT, ERAA, INPP, JPFA, KINO, LPKR, MEDC, SILO, MIKA, ROTI, PRDA, RALS, SRIL, Sumber Segara Primadaya, SCMA, TLKM, WTON)

    • 18 Agustus 2018 - 2 September 2018 : Asian Games XVIII ke-18, (Jakarta & Lampung)

    • 27 Agustus 2018 : Rilis Laporan Keuangan ANTM

    • 27-28 Agustus 2018 : dbAccess Indonesia Corporate Day @Deutsche Bank HK, Hong Kong (ANTM, BBNI, INDF, JSMR, ROTI, PWON, RALS, SMGR, SCMA)

    • 27-29 Agustus 2018 : Macquarie - ASEAN Conference 2018 @The Fullerton Hotel, Singapore (ACES, ADRO, BMRI, BBRI, PTBA, BSDE, OCBC, BBNI, SMGR, TLKM, WILMAR INTERNATIONAL, EXCL)

    • 01 September 2018 : Efektif berlaku Rencana pemerintah memperluas penggunaan mandatori biodiesel 20% atau (B20) untuk non public service obligation (PSO)

    • 04 September 2018 : Maybank Kim Eng Corporate Access 2018 @Singapore

    • 05 September 2018 : FTSE All-World and FTSE Global Small Cap Asia Pacific ex Japan Review - Semi-Annual (Announcement Date/after market close : Wednesday 05 September 2018, Effective Date/as of open : Monday 24 September)

    • 05 September 2018 : FTSE Global Equity Index Series Inclusion and Exclusion levels - Quarterly (Announcement Date/after market close : Wednesday 05 September 2018, Effective Date/as of open : Monday 24 September)

    • 05 September 2018 : UBS - Global Chemicals & Paper and Packaging Conferences @New York City

    • 07 September 2018 : FTSE Shariah Global Equity Index Series - Quarterly (Announcement Date/after market close : Friday 07 September, Effective Date/as of open : Monday 24 September)

    • 10 September 2018 : Rupslb PGAS

    • 10-15 September 2018 : 25th CLSA Investor’s Forum @Grand Hyatt, Hong Kong (TLKM, BUMI)

    • 12 September 2018 : FTSE All-World ex Coal Index Series - Semi-Annual (Announcement Date/after market close : Wednesday 12 September, Effective Date/as of open : Monday 24 September)

    • 20 September 2018 : Penetapan dan pengumuman pasangan calon peserta pemilu Presiden dan Wakil Presiden

    • Rencana Penggabungan PT Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Tbk dan PT Bank Sumitomo Mitsui Indonesia :
    24 September 2018 - 19 Oktober 2018 : Tanggal periode pernyataan kehendak untuk menjual dari pemegang saham BTPN
    01 Oktober 2018 : Tanggal Pernyataan Efektif dari OJK atas rencana Penggabungan
    05 Oktober 2018 : Tanggal RUPSLB BTPN dan SMBCI
    27 Desember 2018 : Tanggal Pembayaran atas pembelian saham milik pemegang saham BTPN yang menjual sahamnya
    30 Desember 2018 : Tanggal perdagangan terakhir saham BTPN sebelum penggabungan
    01 Januari 2019 : Tanggal efektif penggabungan

    • 01 Oktober 2018 : Mulai berlaku Kewajiban pemenuhan Giro Rasio Intermediasi Makroprudensial (RIM) Syariah bagi BUS dan UUS serta kewajiban pemenuhan Penyangga Likuiditas Makroprudensial (PLM) bagi BUS

    • 1 Oktober 2018 : Efektif Pengenaan cukai sebesar 57 persen dari harga jual terhadap cairan rokok elektrik atau vape

    • 12 - 14 Oktober 2018 : 2018 Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Group @Bali Nusa Dua, Indonesia

    • 31 Oktober 2018 - 02 November 2018 : 14th Indonesian Palm Oil Conference and 2019 Price Outlook "Palm Oil Development : Contribution to SDGs", organized by the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) @The Bali International Convention Centre (BICC) The Westin Resort Nusa Dua Bali

    • 6-7 November 2018 : 7th Coaltrans Emerging Asian Coal Markets @Sheraton Hanoi Hotel Vietnam

    • 16 November 2018 : FTSE Global Equity Index Series Inclusion and Exclusion levels - Quarterly (Announcement Date/after market close : Friday 16 November, Effective Date/ as of open : Monday 24 December)

    • 26 November 2018 : Penerapan Penyelesaian Bursa T+2 (T+2)

    • 03 Desember 2018 : 175th (Ordinary) OPEC Meeting @Vienna, Austria

    • 07 December 2018 : FTSE Shariah Global Equity Index Series - Quarterly (Announcement Date/after market close : Friday 07 December, Effective Date/as of open : Monday 24 December)

    • 11 Desember 2018 : FTSE4Good Index Series - Semi-Annual (Announcement Date/after market close : Tuesday 11 December, Effective Date/as of open : Monday 24 December)

    • 15 - 16 Januari 2019 : Nomura Indonesia All Access 2019 @Jakarta

    • 01 Februari 2019 : Pemerintah memutuskan untuk menunda pemberlakuan kewajiban penggunaan asuransi nasional dalam kegiatan ekspor batu bara dan minyak kelapa sawit mentah hingga 1 Februari 2019.

    • 8-17 April 2019 : Pemungutan dan pengitungan suara

    • 2-4 September 2019 : Penetapan hasil Pemilu

    • 20 Oktober 2019 : Sumpah janji pelantikan presiden dan wakil presiden

    • 08 Agustus 2021 : Pertamina akan menjadi operator di Blok Rokan dari 2021 sampai 2041


    (LS/OCBC - Source : Idx, Bank Indonesia, Trading Economic, Bloomberg, RTI, Depositary Receipts Calendar, Bisnis Indonesia, Kontan - Disclaimer On)
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  • Good morning,

    Dow notches record close after Fed hikes rates

    The move by the Fed lifts the target range to 1.25 percent to 1.5 percent.
    See More

    The Fed also raised its GDP outlook for 2018.

    The 30-stock index rose 81 points, with Caterpillar leading advancers. The Dow also posted an intraday record.

    Dow........24585 +80.6 +0.33%
    Nasdaq....6876 +13.5 +0.20%
    S&P 500...2663 -1.3 -0.05%

    FTSE........7497 -3.9 -0.05%
    Dax........13126 -57.9 -0.44%
    CAC.........5399 -27.7 -0.51%

    Nikkei....22758 -108.1 -0.47%
    HSI.........29222 +428.2 +1.49%
    Shanghai.3303 +22.2 +0.68%
    ST Times.3469 +3.2 +0.09%

    Indo10Yr..6.7096 -0.0119 -0.18%
    INDOBex240.5412 +0.1309 +0.05%
    US10Yr.......2.35 -0.05 -2.25%
    VIX.............10.14 +0.22 +2.22%

    USDIndx ....93.436 -0.392 -0.42%
    Como Indx183.3645 -0.0496 -0.03%

    (Core Commodity CRB)
    DJUSCL....50.44 -1.60 -3.07%
    (Dow Jones US Coal Index)

    IndoCDS...91.65 +0.16 +0.17% (5-yr INOCD5)

    IDR...........13590 +16 +0.12%
    Jisdor.......13589 +39 +0.29%
    IDR Fut.....13547 -68.5 -0.50%

    Euro.......1.1826 +0.0082 +0.70%

    TLKM.......31.20 +0.57 +1.86%
    EIDO.........27.37 +0.45 +1.67%
    EEM..........46.41 +0.55 +1.20%

    Oil..........56.71 -0.53 -0.93%
    Gold ......1257.90 +11.60 +0.93%
    Timah..18785.00 -367.50 -1.92%
    Nickel..11095.00 -12.50 -0.11%

    Coal price...99.65 +1.00 +1.01%
    Coal price.101.00 +0.50 +0.50%
    Coal price...95.00 -0.65 -0.68%
    Coal price..94.55 -1.00 -1.05%
    (Jan/ Rotterdam)

    CPO(Dec) 2462 -9 -0.36%
    Corn...........349.00 +1.25 +0.36%
    SoybeanOil 33.40 -0.20 -0.60%
    Wheat........416.75 +6.00 +1.46%

    Rubber.......204.80 +0.30 +0.15%

    *Pulp(BHKP).968.78 +14.31 +1.50%**
    (12 Des)

    * : weekly

    (DE/ls 14-12-17)

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  • Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Daily Focus (July 4, 2017)
    Research Team (

    Market comment by Taye Shim (
    As largely expected, JCI kicked off the first trading day of 2H17 with a solid rally leading the index to a new record high. This is broadly in line with our BUY INDONESIA theme which we introduced end of last year. China's Caixin manufacturing PMI posted surprise expansion for the month of June (reported 50.4 vs. consensus 49.5) which was in line with the official PMI. This was supported by US ISM manufacturing PMI which printed 57.8, beating estimates of 55.2. Foreign investors were net buyers (IDR477bn) of the local market driving the rally. #RANKING CHANGES: TLKM (new historical high) is now undisputed largest market cap (IDR482.8tr) name in the JCI followed by BBCA (IDR451.6tr) and HMSP (IDR447.8tr). #BUYING CRITERIA? TLKM rallied 6% yesterday, driven by aggressive foreign net buying. We think foreign investors were BUYing INDONESIA proxies based on valuations. Post-rally valuation (17F P/E) for TLKM stands at 20.63x, BBCA @ 19.95x, HSMP @ 33.05x
    See More

    Market Indicator
    JCI: 5,910.237 (+1.38%)
    EIDO: 27.39 (+0.66%)
    DJIA: 21,479.27 (+0.61%)
    FTSE100: 7,377.09 (+0.88%)
    USD/IDR: 13,368 (+0.15%)
    10yr GB yield: 6.88% (+5bps)
    Oil Price: 47.07 (+2.24%)
    Foreign net purchase: IDR476.8bn

    Foreign net purchase on single stocks (HOTS screen #0141)

    Most actively traded stocks (HOTS screen #0102)

    Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Equity Movers
    Investment Information Team (

    *ISM manufacturing index rises to 57.8 in June from 54.9, at highest level since 2014
    *IHS Markit manufacturing PMI falls to 52.0 in June from 52.7
    *Eurozone unemployment stays at 9.3% in May, lowest since March 2009
    *U.K. manufacturing PMI slips to 3-month low at 54.3 in June, missing forecasts
    *Eurozone June manufacturing PMI comes in at 57.4, compared with 57.3 flash estimate
    *Germany's June manufacturing PMI comes in at 59.6, compared with 59.3 flash estimate
    *France June manufacturing PMI comes in at 54.8, compared with 55.0 flash estimate

    *TLKM +5.9%, leading gain in Indonesian stocks today after better-than-expected June inflation data, signaling recovery in consumer purchasing power.
    *BIRD +3.9%. Blue Bird led gains in taxi company stocks amid positive sentiment over the government regulation of minimum and maximum prices for online car transportation services.
    *MLPL +0.9%. Multipolar signed a $250 million loan from Bank Negara Indonesia.
    *TINS +0.6%. In 1Q17, Timah posted a net profit of IDR66.5 billion after suffering a loss of IDR138.9 billion in the same period last year.
    *ADRO +3.1%. Adaro Energy is rated BBB- with a positive outlook from Japan Credit Agency (JCA).
    *ROTI -0.8%. In 1Q17, Nippon Indosari's net profit dropped by 65% yoy to IDR29.9 billion. Meanwhile, sales fell to IDR602.4 billion vs IDR610.9 billion.

    Daily write up
    Sawit Sumbermas Sarana (SSMS) : Every cloud has a silver lining by Andy Wibowo Gunawan (

    - With SSMS still keeping its floor CPO extraction rate at 23.0% for 2017F, we believe its total FFB production will still see domination from nucleus plantation this year.

    - As mentioned in our previous report on 2H17F palm oil sector outlook, “Dark clouds on the horizon”, SSMS targets a whopping 150,000 ha in total planted area by 2018 (from just 34,000 ha in 2014).

    - Given the S&P’s rating upgrade, SSMS will refinance its bank loans through bond issuance. In our view, this should be a good time for SSMS to refinance its debt due to lower cost of funds going forward.

    - We maintain our 12-month forward TP for SSMS at IDR1,900 with a Trading Buy call. We like SSMS mainly thanks to the young age profile of its palm oil plantations.

    <Market Headlines>

    Lotte Chemical Titan cut IPO targets (Kontan)
    Lotte Chemical Titan will do IPO USD1.12bn in Malaysia for expansion in Indonesia.

    SGRO targets to increase CPO production by 30% (Kontan)
    SGRO targets this year's CPO production volume to increase 20% to 30% compared to last year’s realization.

    MNCN to maintain 10% growth performance (Bisnis Indonesia)
    MNCN is optimistic to maintain a CAGR of 10% growth in the next 5 years, along with optimism that television industry will still dominate the Indonesian advertising market.

    Double digit credit growth in sight (Bisnis Indonesia)
    Bank’s credit growth in 1H17 is predicted to reach double digit, and will continue to improve in the next semester.

    Multipolar gets a USD250mn of loans (Investor Daily)
    PT Multipolar Tbk (MLPL) gets new borrowings amounting USD250mn from PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI). The proceeds of that loans will be used for refinancing and working capital.

    Nusantara Infrastructure will not distribute dividend (Investor Daily)
    PT Nusantara Infrastructure Tbk (META) will not distribute dividend. As a note that META’s net profit reached IDR220bn in 2016.

    (Jakarta Post)
    JCI at full throttle after long break
    Inflationary pressure may recede as food prices ease off
    Foreign tourists: Despite tension, RI sees jump in arrivals
    RI eyes euro bond issuance amid rating upgrade, stable market
    Govt to lobby FPNI to realize investment
    Coal price recovery encourages BYAN to aim higher

    (Jakarta Globe)
    Indonesian diaspora network presents leadership award to Jokowi for looking after expats
    Indonesia to join FATF in war against money laundering and terrorism funding
    Indonesia’s inflation rate picks up slightly in June
    Indonesia hopes for additional USD10bn inflows after S&P upgrade, president says
    It’s 7-eleven Indonesia, not the retail industry: Fitch
    Most SE Asia stocks gain as China data cheers, Indonesia at record closing high
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    *•Stock Code* : WOOD

    See More
    *•Listing date on IDX* : 21 Jun 2017

    *•Offering price (Rp)* : Rp 260

    *•Business Scope* : Wooden furniture and other wooden product industry, forest concession, retail and distribution of furniture and home decorating fixtures

    *• Integra Indocabinet Overview* :
    ~~PT. Integra Indocabinet was established in 1989. The company’s initial production were plastic and wooden CD racks for US market. As the company gained more experience in production process, it started to invest in machineries to produce simple furniture which led to the company’s rapid growth in business and in its global recognition as a leading furniture manufacturer company. (80% Export, 20% Domestic)

    *•Lead Underwriter* : PT Bahana Sekuritas, PT DBS Vickers Sekuritas Indonesia dan PT BCA Sekuritas

    *•Purposes of fund Rised From IPO* :
    ~~90% Capital expenditures (purchase of machinery and equipment, purchase of land, and outlet opening)
    ~~10% Working capital (purchase of raw materials, payment of account payable, production expense, marketing expense, etc.)

    *•Financial Information - Shareholders Information* :
    ~~Total Assets (In Billion Rp) 3,081.874 (31 Dec 16) vs 2,014.473 (31 Dec 15)
    ~~Profit (Loss) For The Period (In Billion Rp) 141,081 (31 Dec 16) vs 38.531 (31 Dec 15)

    *•Propectus* :


    *(LS/OCBC, Source : Web Integra Indocabinet, Idx - Disclaimer On)*
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  • *Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day*
    Get caught up on what’s moving markets in Asia.
    by Luke Kawa
    Fri Jun 16 2017 04:28:56 GMT+0700 (WIB)

    See More
    *》Investors fear Fed policy error, Bank of Japan on deck, and China's Treasury holdings rise to six-month high.*

    *Here are some of the things people in markets are talking about.*

    *》The Feared Flattener*

    The shrinking spread between yields on short and longer-term U.S. debt is front-and-center in markets. The bond market is signaling the Federal Reserve may be committing a policy error by continuing to raise its policy rate in the face of below-target—and decelerating—inflation. The divide between monetary policymakers and fixed-income markets suggests traders are trying to dissuade the central bank from following through on its tightening plans.

    *》Exit Strategy?*

    The Bank of Japan is slated to deliver its interest rate decision on Friday, with economists expecting the central bank to keep its policy rate and 10-year yield target unchanged at -0.1 and 0 percent, respectively. What may change, however, is how many bonds the Bank of Japan aims to purchase per year after Governor Haruhiko Kuroda admitted that the pace of purchases has fallen meaningfully shy of its annual target. The governor will hold a press conference at 3:30 p.m. Tokyo time. Shares of Japanese exporters struggled Thursday and could be in for a rough time Friday if the Bank of Japan makes any reference to an exit strategy from its unprecedented unconventional easing program.

    *》$1.09 Trillion*

    In April, China's holdings of U.S. Treasuries rose to their highest level since October, the third consecutive monthly increase. Roughly $1.09 trillion in American debt is owned by the Chinese. Earlier this month, reports surfaced that the world's second largest economy was ready to add to its hoard of Treasuries as its currency stabilized. China's central bank declined to follow the Fed in hiking rates on Thursday, a switch from the last time Janet Yellen and her counterparts delivered an increase in March.

    *》Tech Difficulties*

    The technology-centric selloff is back on. Benchmark U.S. equity indexes declined Thursday, with mega-cap tech names leading the way down. Oil prices continued to retreat with West Texas Intermediate futures falling as low as $44.22 per barrel. Shares of social media company Snap Inc. briefly touched their March IPO price before rebounding on heavy volume.

    *》Futures Up*

    Despite the retreat in U.S. risk assets, the Japanese yen was the worst-performing G10 currency Thursday. Nikkei 225 and S&P/ASX 200 futures are in positive territory as of 5:30 a.m. Tokyo time after both indexes gave back ground the prior session. Asia Pacific stocks stumbled Thursday, with particularly poor showings from energy companies.

    *What we’ve been reading*

    The potential winners from U.S. bank deregulation.

    Bitcoin gets crushed.
    BOE trio wants to hike rates now.

    The Fed Chair sweepstakes.

    Greece's creditors agree to payout.

    Mexican equities now beating Russia's since the U.S. election.

    The case for Summer Fridays.
    Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day
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  • ERAA TP Rp 1.100 (68%Upside)

    Fly With Drone

    See More
    We initiate coverage on ERAA with a BUY call and a TP of IDR 1,100. The expectation of higher quarterly revenues from recent product launches – which would lead to strong earnings growth - should support the share price performance going forward. At the current share price, ERAA is trading at an attractive valuation of just 6.1x 2017 P/E, below the average 3-year PE of 10.6x. BUY!


    Recent product launches to lead to higher revenues in 2Q17 onward.Indonesia is experiencing rapid growth in mobile data usage, 4G LTE. This, we believe, offers the national leading mobile phone distributor, ERAA, ample room for business expansion going forward.  Based on our recent discussions with the management, the recent product launches combined with cash back programs with telco operators have met with a positive response. This should translate into a higher top line in the coming quarters, we believe. We forecast higher revenues growth of 9.5% yoy in 2017F.
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  • Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Daily Focus (June 7, 2017)
    Research Team (

    Market comment by Taye Shim (
    Market likely to trend sideways as investors await 1) ECB meeting, 2) UK general election results, and 3) Comey's testimony (all on Thursday). The dollar index slipped a low of 96.5, returning to the level before President Trump's victory. FOMC is scheduled next week Wednesday and while market is pricing in 25bps rate hike, Yellen's comments will be scrutinized. Conflict between Qatar and Arab nations should keep oil price pressured, as this may hamper OPEC/non-OPEC's oil production cut.
    See More

    Market Indicator
    JCI: 5,707.83 (-0.70%)
    EIDO: 26.98 (-0.66%)
    DJIA: 21,136.23 (-0.23%)
    FTSE100: 7,524.95 (-0.01%)
    USD/IDR: 13,297 (+0.14%)
    10yr GB yield: 6.95% (Unchanged)
    Oil Price: 48.19 (+1.67%)
    Foreign net purchase: -IDR679.2bn

    Foreign net purchase on single stocks (HOTS screen #0141)

    Most actively traded stocks (HOTS screen #0102)

    Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Equity Movers
    Investment Information Team (

    *EIA ups 2018 U.S. oil output forecast by 0.4% to 10.01 mln bbls/day
    *U.S. job openings rise in April to record 6 million

    *ADRO +3.8%. Indonesian miners continued their rally as coal climbed to 5-week high.
    *SMMT +13% amid company's plan to enter the mine-mouth power plant business which will need USD360 million-USD720 million of investments.
    *TPIA +0.1%. Chandra Asri conducted a land purchase transaction from PT Pancapuri Indoperkasa (PIP) which will be used to support company’s business expansion plan in Cilegon.
    *AISA -4.5%. In 1Q17, Tiga Pilar Sejahtera posted a net profit of IDR103.5 billion, down 15.8% yoy and 58.3% qoq.
    *ASII -1.3%. Broker LG downgraded Astra International to "neutral" from "buy" amid tight competition in automotive industry.

    Daily write up
    Cement: At a crossroads by Mimi Halimin (

    - While cement volume demand is improving, we note that the recovery is still in a very early stage and the modest recovery being seen now is not yet strong enough to offset negative sentiment from the YoY fall in ASP.

    - However, a turning point could come if volume demand keeps showing solid improvement, leading to more stable ASP.

    - For now, we maintain our Underweight call on the cement sector.

    Company update
    SMGR: Demand recovery in home market by Mimi Halimin (

    - Despite our bearish stance on the cement sector, we think the improvement in consumption demand, especially for SMGR, is noteworthy.

    - We revised up our revenue target to reflect the company’s better sales volume outlook as well as the revenue-boosting potential of other businesses.

    - However, as ASP remained weak in April, we maintain our Hold recommendation but with a higher target price of IDR9,000.

    <Market Headlines>

    PTPP realizes 31% from 2017 new contracts target (Bisnis Indonesia)
    PTPP obtained new contract of IDR12.6tr in 5M17, increased 77% compared to IDR7.1tr from same period last year.

    APLN to issue USD300mn bond (Bisnis Indonesia)
    The bond which would amount to 40.4% of APLN's equity will mature in 2024 with fixed coupon rate of 5.95% p.a.

    Indoritel will expand to fiber optic (Investor Daily)
    PT Indoritel Makmur International Tbk (DNET) continue to use 2015 capex plan for expanding its subsidiary, which namely PT Mega Akses Perdana (MAP). This capex was amounting IDR2.3tr.

    Tunas Baru sets an IDR8tr of revenue (Investor Daily)
    PT Tunas Baru Lampung Tbk (TBLA) sets an IDR8tr of revenue for this year, from IDR6.5tr of revenue in 2016. This higher 2017F revenue target will boost 2017F net profit to IDR625bn (+20.0% YoY).

    PTPP’s new contract reached IDR12.6tr at the end of May (Kontan)
    The value surged 77% vs. the contract value achievement in the same period last year of IDR7.1tr.

    TBLA is eyeing IDR8tr sales (Kontan)
    TBLA targets this year’s sales will grow 23% YoY to IDR8tr.

    (Jakarta Post)
    Overhaul underway in oil, gas sector
    Indonesia wants bold, firm acts against illegal fishing in UN
    Pertamina struggles to put policy into action
    Govt defends ‘realistic’ 2018 state budget
    Unleashing obstacles to PPP in infrastructure development
    PLN to issue bonds for power projects
    CPIN scraps 7-Eleven takeover

    (Jakarta Globe)
    KLBF to ramp up capex by 20% this year to build new factories
    New OJK head to be selected this week
    Indonesian farmers befriend soil to protect harvests from climate stress
    Indonesia’s 2017 budget deficit estimated at 2.5% of GDP : Finance Minister
    Indonesian companies step up moves to get funds after S&P’s upgrade
    Mandiri, SMI grant IDR1.7Tr syndicated loan to train manufacturer INKA
    [08:57, 6/7/2017] +62 811-8841-288: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia on Cement: At a crossroads by Mimi Halimin (
    - Kami menilai bahwa pemulihan permintaan volume semen masih dalam tahap awal dan saat ini belum cukup kuat untuk mengimbangi sentimen negatif dari penurunan YoY ASP.
    - Namun, titik balik bisa terjadi jika permintaan volume terus menunjukkan peningkatan yang solid, membuat ASP menjadi lebih stabil.
    - Untuk saat ini, kami masih mempertahankan Underweight call kami di sektor semen. (Ilustrasi selengkapnya dapat dibaca
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    By: Bloomberg News

    *》Pound falls as May may lost majority, euro-area inflation slows, and China growth is robust despite deleveraging campaign*

    See More
    *Hung parliament?*

    The pound fell to the lowest level in more than five weeks after a projection by Yougov Plc, a U.K. polling company, showed that Theresa May's Conservative Party may fall short of winning a majority in Parliament in the June 8 election. The projection, which is based on a new methodology, is out of step with other polls that continue to show a solid Conservative lead. It does, however, have people more seriously addressing the question of what it would take for Labour's Jeremy Corbyn to win the election. 

    *Euro data*

    Euro-area inflation slowed to 1.4 percent in May, slightly below economist expectations, and the weakest reading this year. Core inflation dropped to 0.9 percent. The numbers are likely to aid ECB President Mario Draghi's call for continued accommodative monetary policy ahead of next week's governing council meeting. Meanwhile, unemployment data for the common-currency zone showed a drop to 9.3 percent, the lowest level since March 2009.

    *No China slowdown*

    Official manufacturing data released overnight showed that growth in China is holding up, despite worries that a leverage crackdown would feed through to investment in the world's second-largest economy. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.2 percent, paring its monthly loss to 1.2 percent. One place that the deleveraging campaign is apparent, however, is in the government bond market, with the nation's 10-year security falling for the second month in a row. 

    *Markets quiet*

    *Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed, while Japan's Topix index slipped 0.3 percent with energy companies leading the losses.*

    *In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was unchanged at 5:48 a.m. Eastern Time, with London's FTSE 100 Index gaining on the back of the drop in the pound. S&P 500 futures were also unchanged.*

    *Coming up..*

    *It is a fairly light day for U.S. data today, with Chicago PMI due at 9:45 a.m. and pending home sales at 10:00 a.m.*

    *It will be worth keeping an eye on Brazil, where the central bank is expected to cut the main Selic rate by 100 basis points.*

    *Also due today is a European Commission report into the future of the monetary union, which may suggest the need to issue collective bonds.*

    *Here's what you should read today*

    ◇This is what the demise of oil looks like.

    ◇The world could enter a climate 'danger zone' if Trump exits Paris deal. 

    ◇The Trump trade's so dead you may as well buy it, says Citigroup. 

    ◇North Korea has more friends than you think.

    ◇Larry Fink says Europe has a brighter economic outlook than U.S.

    ◇The sixth-best soccer team in England is the world's richest.

    ◇Five reasons people are still skeptical about Bitcoin
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  • Ciptadana Securities (KI) - Daily and Technical Updates as of May 31, 2017

    Daily Technical View

    We expect JCI to trade between 5,630 (support) – 5,730 (resistance) level today
    See More

    UNTR: Sell on strength at Rp 27,500-Rp 28,000
    Comment: Testing resistance level

    BBCA: Buy on weakness at Rp 17,350-Rp 17,100
    Comment: Testing suport level

    TLKM: Buy on weakness at Rp 4,270-Rp 4,200
    Comment: Testing support level

    BNLI: Speculative buy at Rp 700-Rp 690
    Comment: Closed above resistance level

    Market Movement


    U.S. equities fell lower on Tuesday as investors digested key economic data, but a rise in tech stocks helped capped losses. DJIA fell 50.81 points, or 0.24 percent, to close at 21,029.47, with Goldman Sachs as the leading decliner and Verizon outperforming. S&P 500 slipped 2.91 points, or 0.12 percent, to end at 2,412.91, with energy leading seven sectors lower and telecommunications the biggest advancer. In economic news, personal income rose 0.4 percent in April, in line with expectations, and consumer spending increased by 0.4 percent. The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, rose 0.2 percent. Other data released Tuesday include consumer confidence reading for May, which came in at 117.9, slightly below a consensus estimate of 119. Brent oil price inched up by 0.1% to USD51.9/barrel while CPO price was down by 1.08% to MYR2,757/ton


    JCI fell by 18.94 points or -0.33% to close at 5,693, where UNVR (-2.80% to 46,000), TLKM (-1.37% to 4,330), BBCA (-0.98% to 17,600) consecutively became the lagging movers. Trading value was Rp3.9 tn and foreign investors sold Rp149 bn of stocks on a net basis. Rupiah slightly weakened by 3 points to 13,323/USD. From our technical desk, JCI is expected to trade at technical range of 5,680-5,780 with possibility of closing at higher territory.

    Business News

    • BPS to announce May inflation tommoro
    • Revised state budget: Lower tax income, higher GDP growth
    • GEMS to acquire several companies in September
    • ANTM starts to export low-grade nickel ore
    • Rimo to allocate Rp 1 tn, develop property

    Currency Trading Range of Today

    US$/Rp: 13,270 – 13,370
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  • Good morning,

    U.S. stocks rose on Monday as PresidentDonald Trump continued his first trip abroad since taking office.

    The Dow Jones industrial average advanced about 90 points, with Boeing and 3M contributing the most gains.
    See More

    The S&P 500 rose 0.5 percent, with information technology leading advancers. Tech has been the best-performing sector in the S&P this year, rising 18 percent.

    Dow........20895 +89.99 +0.43%
    Nasdaq....6134 +49.9 +0.82%
    S&P 500...2394 +12.3 +0.52%

    FTSE........7496 +25.6 +0.34%
    DAX.......12620 -19.2 -0.15%
    CAC.........5323 -1.5 -0.03%

    Nikkei...19678 +87.5 +0.45%
    HSI........25391 +337.6 +1.05%
    Shanghai.3076 -14.95 -0.48%
    ST Times.3213 -3.7 -0.11%

    Indo10Yr.7.2101 -0.017 -0.24%
    INDOBex224.4291 +0.4408 +0.20%
    US10Yr.....2.254 +0.09 +0.40%
    VIX............10.93 -1.11 -9.22%

    USDIndx ....96.976 -0.166 -0.17%
    Como Indx186.0732 +0.9965+0.54%
    (Core Commodity CRB)
    DJUSCL....39.63 -0.10 -0.25%
    (Dow Jones US Coal Index)

    IndoCDS...122.89 +0.595 +0.49% (5-yr INOCD5)

    IDR...........13302 -23 -0.17%
    Jisdor.......13297 -113 -0.84%
    IDR Fut.....13260 -69 -0.52%

    Euro.......1.1237 +0.0031 +0.28%

    TLKM.......33.71 +0.54 -1.58%
    EIDO.........27.21 -0.18 -0.66%
    EEM.........41.10 +0.04 +0.10%

    Oil.............50.73 +0.40 +0.79%
    Gold ........1260.50 +6.90 +0.55%
    Timah....20475.00 +112.50+0.55%*
    Nickel......9400.00 +42.50 +0.45%*

    Coal price...74.80 +0.55 +0.74%
    Coal price...75.20 +0.85 +1.14%
    Coal price...74.95 +0.75 +1.01%
    Coal price...77.00 +1.30 +1.72%
    (Jun/ Rotterdam)

    CPO(Agt) 2659 +24 +0.91%
    Corn...........375.00 +2.50 +0.67%
    SoybeanOil 32.94 -0.10 -0.30%
    Wheat........434.25 -1.00 -0.23%

    * source : Investing

    (DE/ls 23-05-17)

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  • [Forwarded from]
    Good morning,

    U.S. equities closed higher on Friday as concerns about Donald Trump's presidency recede for the time being.

    See More
    The Dow Jones industrial average rose about 140 points, with Boeing and Caterpillar contributing the most gains.

    The S&P 500 gained around 0.7 percent, with industrials leading all 11 sectors higher, as shares of Deere rose 7.3 percent after posting quarterly results that easily beat expectations.

    Dow........20805 +141.8 +0.69%
    Nasdaq....6084 +28.6 +0.47%
    S&P 500...2382 +16.01 +0.68%

    FTSE........7471 +34.3 +0.46%
    DAX.......12639 +48.6 +0.39%
    CAC.........5324 +34.7 +0.66%

    Nikkei...19591 +36.9 +0.19%
    HSI........25175 +38.4 +0.15%
    Shanghai.3091 +0.5 +0.02%
    ST Times.3217 -4.7 -0.15%

    Indo10Yr.7.2101 -0.077 -1.06%
    INDOBex223.8914 +0.7084 +0.32%
    US10Yr.....2.245 +0.012 +0.54%
    VIX............12.04 -2.62 -17.87%!!

    USDIndx ....97.142 -0.766 -0.78%
    Como Indx185.0767 +2.5701+1.41%
    (Core Commodity CRB)
    DJUSCL....39.73 +0.47 +1.20%
    (Dow Jones US Coal Index)

    IndoCDS...122.295 -14.395 -10.53%!! (5-yr INOCD5)

    IDR...........13325 -31 -0.23%
    Jisdor.......13410 +67 +0.50%
    IDR Fut.....13329 -82 -0.61%

    Euro.......1.1206 +0.0098 +0.88%

    TLKM.......34.25 +2.11 +6.57%!!
    EIDO.........27.39 +1.40 +5.39%!!
    EEM.........41.15 +0.86 +2.13%

    Oil.............50.33 +0.99 +2.01%
    Gold ........1253.60 +6.80 +0.55%
    Timah....20362.50 +125.00+0.62%*
    Nickel......9357.50 +190.0 +2.07%*

    Coal price...74.25 -0.25 -0.34%
    Coal price...74.35 +0.35 +0.47%
    Coal price...74.20 +0.10 +0.13%
    Coal price...75.70 +1.15 +1.54%
    (Jun/ Rotterdam)

    CPO(Agt) 2635 +7 +0.27%
    Corn...........372.50 +6.50 +1.78%
    SoybeanOil 33.04 +0.60 +1.85%
    Wheat........435.25 +9.50 +2.23%

    * source : Investing

    (DE/ls 20-05-17)

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  • Good morning,

    The S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite closed at record highs on Monday after a rise in tech and oil prices.

    The S&P climbed about 0.5 percent, with materials leading advancers. Energy was also among the best performers after a sharp rise in crude prices.
    See More

    Dow........20982 +85.3 +0.41%
    Nasdaq....6150 +28.4 +0.46%
    S&P 500...2402 +11.4 +0.48%

    FTSE........7454 +18.98 +0.26%
    DAX.......12807 +36.6 +0.29%
    CAC.........5417 +11.98 +0.22%

    Nikkei...19870 -14.1 -0.07%
    HSI........25372 +285.7 +0.89%
    Shanghai.3090 +6.7 +0.22%
    ST Times.3264 +8.9 +0.27%

    Indo10Yr.7.3266 -0.0455 -0.62%
    INDOBex222.7873 +0.7877 +0.35%
    US10Yr.....2.338 +0.003 +0.13%
    VIX..........10.42 +0.02 +0.19%

    USDIndx ....98.905 -0.347 -0.35%
    Como Indx182.7409 +1.0500 +0.58%
    (Core Commodity CRB)
    DJUSCL....40.15 unch +0%
    (Dow Jones US Coal Index)

    IndoCDS...130.01 +1.835 +1.43% (5-yr INOCD5)

    IDR...........13330 -16 -0.12%
    Jisdor.......13319 -21 -0.16%
    IDR Fut.....13309 -23 -0.17%

    Euro.......1.0978 +0.0044 +0.40%

    TLKM.......32.80 -0.36 -1.09%
    EIDO.........26.87 +0.18 +0.67%
    EEM.........41.64 +0.42 +1.02%

    Oil.............48.82 +0.98 +2.05%!!
    Gold ........1230.50 +2.80 +0.23%
    Timah....19857.50 +2.50 +0.01%*
    Nickel......9162.50 -165.0 -1.77%*

    Coal price...73.30 -0.30 -0.40%
    Coal price...71.25 -1.30 -1.79%
    Coal price...72.75 +0.05 +0.07%
    Coal price...71.50 +0.02 +0.07%
    (Jun/ Rotterdam)

    CPO(Juni) 2683 +28 +1.05%
    Corn...........367.75 -3.25 -0.88%
    SoybeanOil 33.02 +0.18 +0.55%
    Wheat........423.25 -9.50 -2.20%

    * source : Investing

    (DE/ls 16-05-17)

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  • Good morning,

    U.S. equities rose on Tuesday as investors digested strong consumer confidence data, with financials leading.

    Dow........20702 +150.5 +0.73%
    See More
    Nasdaq....5875 +34.8 +0.60%
    S&P 500...2359 +16.98 +0.73%

    FTSE........7343 +49.9 +0.68% 
    DAX.......12149 +153.4 +1.28%
    CAC.........5046 +28.8 +0.57%

    Nikkei...19203 +217.3 +1.14%
    HSI........24346 +152.2 +0.63%
    Shanghai.3253 -14 -0.43% 
    ST Times.3158 +30.9 +0.99%
    Indo10Yr.7.3962 closed +0%
    INDOBex219.6796closed +0%
    US10Yr.....2.41 +0.04 +1.52%

    VIX...........11.49 -1.01 -8.08%

    USDIndx ....99.688 +0.473 +0.48%
    Como Indx184.0784+0.9807+0.54%
    (Core Commodity CRB)
    DJUSCL....39.53 +0.94 +2.44%
    (Dow Jones US Coal Index) 

    IndoCDS...129.805 -1.33 -1.01% (5-yr INOCD5) 

    IDR...........13318 +8 +0.06%
    Jisdor.......13314 closed +0%
    IDR Fut.....13316 +3 +0.02%

    Euro.........1.0049 -0.0049 -0.45%

    TLKM.......30.78 -0.09 -0.29%
    EIDO.........25.81 +0.04 +0.16%
    EEM.........39.81 +0.11 +0.28%

    Oil.............48.44 +0.71 +1.49%
    Gold ........1254.80 -4.00 -0.32%
    Timah....20055.0 +152.5 +0.77%*
    Nickel....10002.5 +162.5 +1.65%*

    Coal price...80.75 -0.20 -0.25%
    Coal price...82.90 +0.65 +0.79%
    Coal price....73.70 +0.15 +0.20%
    Coal price....69.95 +0.75 +1.08%
    (April/ Rotterdam)

    CPO............2706 +13 +0.48%
    Corn...........357.75 +2.00 +0.56%
    SoybeanOil 32.47 +0.18 +0.56%
    Wheat........424.50 +3.75 +0.89%

    * source : Investing

    (DE/ls 29-03-17)
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  • Moody's Investors Service says that Indosat Tbk. (P.T.)'s (Indosat Ooredoo) strong financial performance in 2016 was in line with expectations and continues to support its Ba1 corporate family rating and positive outlook.
    Revenue for 2016 grew 9% year on year (YoY) to IDR29.2 trillion, primarily driven by solid growth (47% YoY) in data revenues, leading to 10% growth in cellular revenues. The cellular business remains the key contributor to the company's revenue base, contributing 83% of total revenue in 2016.
    "We expect revenue to grow at 7%-8% in 2017, supported by a continued increase in the contribution from data revenue with the increase in subscribers utilizing its 3G and 4G services," says Annalisa Di Chiara, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Credit Officer.
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