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  • #ICBP -H1
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  • #ICBP -W1
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  • #ICBP -D1
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  • #ICBP -H1
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  • #ICBP -H1
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  • #ICBP -H1
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  • #ICBP -D1
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  • Maybank Kim Eng Research : Indonesia Strategy 2019 Outlook – Bit by Bit

    • Our HoR Isnaputra Iskandar and team set idx 2019 target at 7100 on expectation the macro picture will gradually improve and be less volatile than 2018. BI will continue to implement pro-active market policies and our Maybank strategists are long Indonesia in their 2019 outlook. Politics is not an issue in our view.
    • We think global economy will remain challenging, and as such we expect Indonesia’s monetary policy to lean towards currency stabilization.
    • We forecast a 50bps rate increase in 2019, lower than 2018’s 175bps. Oil price is the wild card in our base case assumptions for the current account deficit (CAD), currency, inflation and interest rate.
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    • We forecast the economy in 2019 to remain resilient, despite volatilities, at c. 5% YoY GDP growth, similar to 2018. The growth is likely to be supported by consumption (+5%) and investment (+6.4%). We forecast 2019 market earnings growth (with and without commodity companies) of 11.7-12.3%, driven by almost all sectors.
    • With low oil prices and a stable IDR, there could be potential upside to our 11.7% growth forecast and this will benefit the cement and consumer sectors.
    • Elections: what’s next? We expect the elections in April to be smooth and peaceful. There is no direct correlation between elections and GDP, but we note a tendency for rising fund flows and IDR appreciation ahead of past elections.
    • Our FX team forecasts the IDR could strengthen 10% into the elections. We think whoever wins the election, will focus on the same major issues: infrastructure, logistics, income distribution and quality of human capital.
    • Risk factors : global volatility, policy transmission time lag, unfavourable election outcome, disappointing earnings
    • IHSG 7100 is based on 17x FY19E P/E (+1SD above mean) and 11.7% EPS growth.
    • Our top picks are ASII, BBNI, BSDE, GGRM, ICBP, PTBA, PWON, RALS, SMGR and SMRA.
    • Links : https://factsetpdf.maybank-ke.com/PDF/120220_MACRO__2f74e196389f4d79a777984903401b2a.pdf?
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  • #ICBP -D1
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  • #ICBP -H1
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  • 1st SESSION JCI on 17.12.18
    (By: D'ORIGIN - Veni Fitriani)

    JCI @6108.74 (-61.100pts) (-0.990%)
    (H: 6174.22 ; L: 6099.94)
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    (Value: 4.384 T (NG 1.494 T)
    Vol.: 74.880 Lot (NG 28.641 Lot)
    (Adv.114 ; Decl.274 ; Unchg.138 shr)
    Foreign Nett Sell 180.04 B
    Foreign Value 19.6%
    Incl.Crossing:
    - APIC @545 ~ 319.92 B (D vs D)
    - TRAM @353 ~ 313.30 B (D vs D)
    - POLA @1950 ~ 300.00 B (D vs D)
    LQ45...975.92(-1.09%)

    *BUY (Regular)
    F Buy 618.8 B
    D Buy 2270.4 B
    *SELL (Reguler)
    F Sell 745.4 B
    D Sell 2143.8 B

    USD/IDR:
    JISDOR: 14,538;14,617
    SPOT: 14,575;14,610

    JCI for today:
    Support: 6085, 6040
    Resist: 6145, 6190

    6 MARKETs DRIVEN BY SECTOR
    FINANCE (-0.53%) (1.46 T)
    INFRA (-0.06%) (670.19 B)
    MANUFACT (-1.52%) (657.26 B)
    PROPERTY (-1.51%) (355.46 B)
    CONSUMER (-1.69%) (319.34 B)
    MINING (-1.49%) (148.55 B)

    7 NET BUY STOCKs BY FOREIGNERS
    BBNI @8516 (34.71 B)
    ICBP @10148 (32.93 B)
    TLKM @3744 (16.87 B)
    BBRI @3652 (14.73 B)
    SMGR @11409 (10.20 B)
    ASII @8348 (8.58 B)
    LSIP @1288 (4.23 B)

    7 NET SELL STOCKs BY FOREIGNERS
    BBCA @25830 (108.12 B)
    BMRI @7487 (36.47 B)
    UNTR @29127 (18.03 B)
    MNCN @774 (17.42 B)
    INKP @11496 (9.90 B)
    INDF @6994 (7.23 B)
    UNVR @43637 (6.42 B)

    8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VALUE
    BBCA @25800 (-0.10%)
    POOL @4750 (-1.04%)
    BBRI @3650 (-0.82%)
    TLKM @3740 (+0.27%)
    MABA @286 (-0.69%)
    BMRI @7475 (-1.32%)
    BBNI @8525 (-0.87%)
    ASII @8350 (-1.18%)

    8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VOLUME
    MYRX @110 (9.266.437 lot)
    MABA @286 (4.954.409 lot)
    RIMO @142 (4.355.936 lot)
    IIKP @200 (3.226.476 lot)
    SRIL @360 (1.829.053 lot)
    FREN @85 (951.415 lot)
    TRAM @163 (871.414 lot)
    MAMI @122 (833.117 lot)

    "....Have a Nice Lunch...."
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  • #ICBP -D1
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  • ID - [ Consumer]: 2019 Outlook: Stimulus To Boost Spending
    Andrey Wijaya, Mutiara Nita - RHB Sekuritas

    Link to report: https://research.rhbtradesmart.com/attachments/84/rhb-report-ind_consumer-staples_sector-update_20181212_rhb-945763013974494625c1033a494919.pdf

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    ♦ Maintain OVERWEIGHT, with ICBP and MYOR as our Top Picks.

    ♦ We expect FY19F earnings growth of Indonesia consumer staples companies under our coverage (ICBP, ROTI, UNVR, and MYOR) to accelerate, driven by higher sales on expected improved consumer spending, thanks to higher government stimulus.

    ♦ The Government increased its social protection subsidies to boost consumer spending.

    ♦ Regional Governments ruled 2019 minimum wage hike of 8% YoY – which is much higher than inflation rate.

    ♦ Consumer Confidence Index is also at a high.

    ♦ Main risks are weaker IDR and higher subsidised fuel price
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  • #ICBP -D1
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