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  • #BWPT -M15
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  • BCAS Technical View 17 Jan 2019

    Stock pick

    1. IHSG (6413) - SOS (6355-6500)
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    Hari ini IHSG masih akan berfluktuasi dengan potensi profit taking dan bergerak dalam range 6355-6500 dengan pertimbangan: Muncul Hanging man candle dengan RSI melemah dan SO berpotensi DX serta volume perdagangan menurun. Menguji resistance level terdekat di 6415-6460 dan menguji support level awal di 6373-6408.

    2. BBTN (2.750) – BOW (2.670-2.880)
    Muncul Inverted hammer candle dengan MA5 berpotensi GX diikuti kenaikan volume perdagangan namun RSI melemah dan SO berpotensi DX. Hari ini menguji support level terdekat di 2.670-2.720 dengan potensi rebound dan menguji resistance level awal 2.770-2.820. HOLD jika mampu break dan bertahan di atas 2.800. Stop loss jika break support level 2.670.

    3. DOID (615) - Spec BUY (550-715)
    Menguji Three white soldiers pattern candle dengan RSI menguat dan SO berpotongan GX diikuti kenaikan volume perdagangan. Hari ini menguji resistance level 625-665 namun rawan profit taking dan menguji support level awal 550-595. HOLD jika mampu break dan bertahan di 665. Stop loss jika break 550.

    4. HRUM (1.740) – Spec BUY (1.640-1.870)
    Muncul Bullish engulfing pattern candle dengan RSI menguat dan SO berpotongan GX diikuti kenaikan volume perdagangan. Hari ini menguji support level 1.640-1.720 dan menguji resistance level awal 1.760-1.800. HOLD jika mampu break dan bertahan di atas 1.800. Stop loss jika break support level 1.640.

    5. INDY (1.935) – Spec BUY (1.875-2.020)
    Muncul Inverted hammer candle dengan RSI menguat diikuti kenaikan volume perdagangan. Hari ini berpotensi menguji resistance level awal 1.950-2.020 namun rawan profit taking dan menguji support level 1.875-1.920. HOLD jika mampu break dan bertahan di atas 2.000-2.020. Stop loss jika break 1.875.

    6. KINO (2.930) – Spec BUY (2.860-3.010)
    Muncul Spinning top white candle dengan MACD berpotensi GX dan RSI menguat diikuti kenaikan volume perdagangan. Hari ini menguji resistance level 2.950-3.010 namun rawan profit taking dan menguji support level terdekat 2.870-2.910. Sell On Strength jika gagal break dan bertahan di atas 3.000. Stop loss jika break support level 2.860.

    7. PTBA (4.380) – Spec BUY (4.330-4.500)
    Menguji Three black crows pattern candle dengan volume perdagangan menurun namun RSI menguat. Hari ini menguji support level 4.330-4.360 dengan potensi rebound dan menguji resistance level awal di 4.400-4.450. HOLD jika mampu break dan bertahan di atas 4.450. Stop loss jika break 4.330.

    8. UNTR (26.050) – Spec BUY (25.275-27.150)
    Muncul Bullish harami pattern candle dengan RSI menguat namun volume perdagangan menurun. Hari ini menguji support level 25.275-25.850 dengan potensi rebound dan menguji resistance level awal 26.350-27.150. HOLD jika mampu break dan bertahan di atas 26.400-27.150. Stop loss jika break support level 25.275.

    9. WOOD (605) – Spec BUY (575-670)
    Muncul Inverted hammer candle dengan RSI meelemah dan volume perdagangan menurun namun MA5 berpotongan GX dan MACD berpotensi GX. Hari ini menguji resistance level awal di 620-670 dan menguji support level 580-600. HOLD jika mampu break dan bertahan di atas 630. Stop loss jika break 575.

    10. BMRI (7.800) - SOS (7.575-8.100)
    Muncul Northern star doji candle dengan volume perdagangan menurun namun RSI menguat dan SO berpotongan GX. Hari ini menguji resistance level terdekat di 7.875-8.100 namun rawan profit taking dan menguji support level terdekat 7.575-7.750. HOLD jika mampu break dan bertahan di atas 7.900-8.000. Stop loss jika break 7.575.

    11. KRAS (470) – SOS (458-484)
    Menguji Three white soldiers pattern candle dengan RSI menguat namun SO berada di area jenuh beli dan volume perdagangan menurun. Hari ini menguji resistance level awal 474-484 namun rawan profit taking dan menguji support level awal di 458-466. HOLD jika mampu break dan bertahan di atas 480-484. Stop loss jika break 458.

    Link Report : https://goo.gl/eVuw6W

    Watchlist
    ADHI, APIC, APLN, ASII, ASRI, AUTO, BABP, BBCA, BBNI, BDMN, BEST, BKSL, BNBA, BNII, BTPS, BWPT, CTTH, DYAN, ESSA, FINN, GZCO, HEXA, IKAI, IMAS, INCO, INDF, INDR, INTP, IPCM, JSMR, JTPE, KBLI, KRAS, KREN, LPKR, MAPI, MBAP, MPMX, MPRO, PGAS, PPRO, PZZA, RBMS, RISE, ROTI, SDMU, SGRO, SIDO, SMDR, SMGR, SMSM, SRIL, SMSM, TINS, TIRA, TLKM, TKIM, TOPS, WEGE, WSBP,

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  • #BWPT -D1
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  • Mandiri (CC) 5/10/2018

    BWPT NEUTRAL TP 195

    Eagle High Plantation: Entering the Prime Cycle (BWPT; Rp200; Neutral; TP :Rp195)
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     We re-initiate coverage on BWPT with a Neutral rating and Rp195 TP. BWPT is on the verge of a fundamental turnaround, as most of its planted areas are now under prime tree profile (57%) with average tree age at 9 years. Despite the potential up-cycle in the production, we prefer to wait until we see strong earnings momentum.

     Heading into the up-cycle production trend. After years of heavy investment, BWPT is now entering its prime cycle given its 9 years average tree-age. The company currently manages 128,286ha of planted areas at the end of 2017, 57% of which are under prime profile (7-15 years). The average monthly FFB production is now at 130k in 1H18, 15% higher than the FY17 average monthly production. The 8M18 FFB production is now at 1.07MT and we forecast 1.65 MT of FFB productions for FY18 and 1.76 MT for FY19. The company is still expecting Sep-Dec’18 monthly production to reach above 170k, implying a FY18 production of 1.75 MT, 7% higher than our forecast.

     2019 outlook. BWPT will enjoy the higher ASP from CPO price recovery and better production profile. We are expecting 6% FFB production growth at 1,76 MT, and 7% ASP growth, which will translate into 27% YoY EBIT growth. However, interest cost will still be a burden for the company and hence still resulted in a net loss of Rp67bn. Better than expected production profile will be the game changer, we believe.

     Productivity improvement strategy. BWPT will emphasize on productivity improvement by introducing a better incentive program for the farmers starting from Apr’18. This incentive has pushed farmers to collect mature FFB right in time. This has increased the farmers’ take home pay to Rp7mn/month from Rp3mn/month in the past.

     Re-initiate with a Neutral rating and Rp195 TP based on USD6,500 EV/Ha, 1 s.d. below its historical average. We use EV/Ha basis given the company’s depressed earnings from lofty interest expense on immature plantation financing. The up-cycle production trend should act as positive catalyst for the stock, as this will help the company’s profitability and further reduce its loan-dependency. However, we prefer to wait until the strong production number translates into earnings quality improvement.
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  • #BWPT -D1
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  • #BWPT -W1
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  • Rekap Laba (-Rugi) Emiten 9M18 vs 9M17
    31.10.17

    BANK & FINANCE
    • BBRI Rp23.5t vs Rp20.5t
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    • BBCA Rp18.5t vs Rp16.8t
    • BMRI Rp18.1t vs Rp15.1t
    • BBNI Rp11.4t vs Rp10.1t
    • BDMN Rp2.69t vs Rp2.75t
    • BNGA Rp2.59t vs Rp2.19t
    • BBTN Rp2.24t vs Rp2.00t
    • PNBN Rp2.11t vs Rp2.09t
    • BTPN Rp1.62t vs Rp1.37t
    • BNII Rp1.49t vs Rp1.45t
    • ADMF Rp1.35t vs Rp1.09t
    • BJBR Rp1.34t vs Rp1.07t
    • BFIN Rp1.09t vs Rp842t
    • BJTM Rp1.06t vs Rp1.01t
    • BTPS Rp698m vs Rp469m
    • BNLI Rp494m vs Rp707m
    • BBKP Rp327m vs Rp199m
    • CFIN Rp226m vs Rp164m
    • AGRO Rp166m vs Rp102m
    • WOMF Rp152m vs Rp101m
    • BRIS Rp151m vs Rp127m
    • BABP Rp102m vs -Rp70.9m
    • MCOR Rp67.6m vs Rp60.3m
    • PNBS Rp11.8m vs Rp15.1m
    • BBHI -Rp19.5m vs Rp7.58m
    • POOL -Rp75.6m vs Rp61.4m

    TELCO, TECH & MEDIA
    • TLKM Rp14.2t vs Rp17.9m
    • TOWR Rp1.71t vs Rp1.63t
    • SCMA Rp1.19t vs Rp1.09t
    • MDIA Rp226m vs Rp277m
    • MTDL Rp191m vs Rp155m
    • ASGR Rp138m vs Rp136m
    • BALI Rp43.8m vs Rp24.6m
    • CENT Rp32.2m vs -Rp78.8m
    • MARI Rp25.3m vs Rp29.8m
    • VIVA -Rp204m vs Rp217m

    CONSUMER & PHARMACY
    • HMSP Rp9.69t vs Rp9.34t
    • UNVR Rp7.30t vs Rp5.23t
    • ICBP Rp3.48t vs Rp3.04t
    • INDF Rp2.82t vs Rp3.26t
    • KLBF Rp1.80t vs Rp1.78t
    • MYOR Rp1.10t vs Rp928m
    • MLBI Rp799m vs Rp921m
    • SIDO Rp480m vs Rp380m
    • TCID Rp150m vs Rp162m
    • ROTI Rp103m vs Rp97.3m
    • HOKI Rp70.8m vs Rp36.3m
    • CLEO Rp46.8m vs Rp38.1m
    • CEKA Rp41.1m vs Rp75.1m
    • ADES Rp35.5m vs Rp23.2m
    • PYFA Rp32.5m vs Rp59.6m

    RETAIL
    • LPPF Rp1.49t vs Rp1.50t
    • FAST Rp96.8m vs Rp104m
    • HERO Rp86.2m vs Rp70.4m
    • MCAS Rp60.8m vs Rp7.22m
    • CSAP Rp55.4m vs Rp57.3m
    • RANC Rp32.7m vs Rp28.2m

    PROPERTY & RELATED
    • ELTY Rp3.10t vs -Rp17.4m
    • PWON Rp1.78t vs Rp1.42t
    • PPRO Rp306m vs Rp275m
    • BEST Rp153m vs Rp283m
    • ARNA Rp116m vs Rp83.9m
    • SSIA -Rp65.6m vs Rp1.23t
    • MDLN limited review

    CONSTRUCTION
    • WSKT Rp4.49t vs Rp2.92t
    • WSBP Rp885m vs Rp8.25m
    • WIKA Rp860m vs Rp683m
    • ADHI Rp335m vs Rp205m
    • WEGE Rp289m vs Rp175m
    • WTON Rp279m vs Rp220m
    • ACST Rp91.2m vs Rp111m
    • IDPR Rp31.5m vs Rp78.4m
    • DGIK -Rp77.8m vs Rp20.3m

    INFRASTRUCTURE RELATED
    • JSMR Rp1.77t vs Rp1.90t
    • AKRA Rp1.29t vs Rp1.02t
    • BUKK Rp386m vs Rp151m
    • IPCC Rp147m vs Rp107m
    • KARW $692rb vs $1.74jt
    • MPOW -Rp3.19m vs Rp9.73m
    • PGAS limited review

    AUTO & HEAVY EQUIPMENT
    • ASII Rp17.1t vs Rp14.1t
    • UNTR Rp9.07t vs Rp5.64t
    • AUTO Rp414m vs Rp370m
    • SMSM Rp400m vs Rp346m
    • KOBX $1.86jt vs $1.14jt

    MANUFACTURING
    • SRIL $70.5jt vs $47.2jt
    • FASW Rp867m vs Rp285m
    • POLY $16.8jt vs -$5.97jt
    • WOOD Rp180m vs Rp138m
    • KBLI Rp105m vs Rp285m
    • MOLI Rp63.7m vs Rp63.4m
    • BOLT Rp61.3m vs Rp82.5m
    • MARK Rp58.8m vs Rp32.2m
    • CINT Rp12.1m vs Rp20.6m
    • DPNS Rp9.37m vs Rp4.79m
    • INRU $452rb vs -$86rb
    • KBRI -Rp124m vs -Rp76.6m
    • NIKL -$3.20jt vs $391rb
    • KRAS -$37.4jt vs -$75.0jt

    TRADE & SERVICES
    • ABMM $30.2jt vs $9.54jt
    • BIRD Rp335m vs Rp302m
    • PSSI $12.1jt vs $1.35jt
    • SHIP $8.15jt vs $7.50jt
    • PRDA Rp106m vs Rp98.9m
    • ASSA Rp106m vs Rp73.1m
    • TPMA $5.87jt vs $2.79jt
    • SAME Rp50.4m vs Rp71.1m
    • DYAN Rp23.1m vs -Rp36.8m
    • TMAS Rp11.7m vs -Rp10.9m
    • INTD Rp3.78m vs Rp1.66m
    • SILO Rp2.99m vs Rp62.9m
    • APOL audit

    OIL & MINING RELATED
    • BYAN $388jt vs $215jt
    • INCO $55.2jt vs -$19.6jt
    • DOID $49.6jt vs $31.4jt
    • MYOH $21.5jt vs $8.63jt
    • ELSA Rp221m vs Rp85.6m
    • KKGI $2.42jt vs $8.34jt
    • BOSS Rp30.2m vs Rp20.8m
    • RIGS -$4.81jt vs -$8.24jt
    • BRMS -$93.9jt vs -$96.6jt
    • PTBA pending
    • TINS limited review
    • MEDC limited review
    • PSAB limited review

    AGRICULTURE & POULTRY
    • JPFA Rp1.67t vs Rp802m
    • AALI Rp1.12t vs Rp1.37t
    • SIMP Rp84.4m vs Rp378m
    • MGRO Rp45.4m vs -Rp17.3m
    • SGRO Rp169m vs Rp203m
    • BWPT -Rp266m vs -Rp209m
    ***
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