Mandiri (CC) 5/10/2018
BWPT NEUTRAL TP 195
Eagle High Plantation: Entering the Prime Cycle (BWPT; Rp200; Neutral; TP :Rp195)
We re-initiate coverage on BWPT with a Neutral rating and Rp195 TP. BWPT is on the verge of a fundamental turnaround, as most of its planted areas are now under prime tree profile (57%) with average tree age at 9 years. Despite the potential up-cycle in the production, we prefer to wait until we see strong earnings momentum.
Heading into the up-cycle production trend. After years of heavy investment, BWPT is now entering its prime cycle given its 9 years average tree-age. The company currently manages 128,286ha of planted areas at the end of 2017, 57% of which are under prime profile (7-15 years). The average monthly FFB production is now at 130k in 1H18, 15% higher than the FY17 average monthly production. The 8M18 FFB production is now at 1.07MT and we forecast 1.65 MT of FFB productions for FY18 and 1.76 MT for FY19. The company is still expecting Sep-Dec’18 monthly production to reach above 170k, implying a FY18 production of 1.75 MT, 7% higher than our forecast.
2019 outlook. BWPT will enjoy the higher ASP from CPO price recovery and better production profile. We are expecting 6% FFB production growth at 1,76 MT, and 7% ASP growth, which will translate into 27% YoY EBIT growth. However, interest cost will still be a burden for the company and hence still resulted in a net loss of Rp67bn. Better than expected production profile will be the game changer, we believe.
Productivity improvement strategy. BWPT will emphasize on productivity improvement by introducing a better incentive program for the farmers starting from Apr’18. This incentive has pushed farmers to collect mature FFB right in time. This has increased the farmers’ take home pay to Rp7mn/month from Rp3mn/month in the past.
Re-initiate with a Neutral rating and Rp195 TP based on USD6,500 EV/Ha, 1 s.d. below its historical average. We use EV/Ha basis given the company’s depressed earnings from lofty interest expense on immature plantation financing. The up-cycle production trend should act as positive catalyst for the stock, as this will help the company’s profitability and further reduce its loan-dependency. However, we prefer to wait until the strong production number translates into earnings quality improvement.