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  • #BSDE -H1
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  • #BSDE -H1
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  • Maybank Kim Eng Research : Indonesia Strategy 2019 Outlook – Bit by Bit

    • Our HoR Isnaputra Iskandar and team set idx 2019 target at 7100 on expectation the macro picture will gradually improve and be less volatile than 2018. BI will continue to implement pro-active market policies and our Maybank strategists are long Indonesia in their 2019 outlook. Politics is not an issue in our view.
    • We think global economy will remain challenging, and as such we expect Indonesia’s monetary policy to lean towards currency stabilization.
    • We forecast a 50bps rate increase in 2019, lower than 2018’s 175bps. Oil price is the wild card in our base case assumptions for the current account deficit (CAD), currency, inflation and interest rate.
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    • We forecast the economy in 2019 to remain resilient, despite volatilities, at c. 5% YoY GDP growth, similar to 2018. The growth is likely to be supported by consumption (+5%) and investment (+6.4%). We forecast 2019 market earnings growth (with and without commodity companies) of 11.7-12.3%, driven by almost all sectors.
    • With low oil prices and a stable IDR, there could be potential upside to our 11.7% growth forecast and this will benefit the cement and consumer sectors.
    • Elections: what’s next? We expect the elections in April to be smooth and peaceful. There is no direct correlation between elections and GDP, but we note a tendency for rising fund flows and IDR appreciation ahead of past elections.
    • Our FX team forecasts the IDR could strengthen 10% into the elections. We think whoever wins the election, will focus on the same major issues: infrastructure, logistics, income distribution and quality of human capital.
    • Risk factors : global volatility, policy transmission time lag, unfavourable election outcome, disappointing earnings
    • IHSG 7100 is based on 17x FY19E P/E (+1SD above mean) and 11.7% EPS growth.
    • Our top picks are ASII, BBNI, BSDE, GGRM, ICBP, PTBA, PWON, RALS, SMGR and SMRA.
    • Links : https://factsetpdf.maybank-ke.com/PDF/120220_MACRO__2f74e196389f4d79a777984903401b2a.pdf?
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  • #BSDE -H1
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  • #BSDE -M15
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  • #BSDE -D1
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  • Maybank (ZP)

    BSDE BUY UPGRADE TP 1750 (fr 1250)

    Maybank-KE research: Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE)
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    Aurellia Setiabudi maintains BUY recommendation on Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE), and upping TP to IDR1,750 (from IDR1,250) per shares. New TP is based on 53% discount to RNAV, -1 Standard Deviation of its 5-year mean.

    Aurellia raises TP to IDR1,750 as she raises EPS by 10-25% in FY19E-FY20 on the back IDR is expected to strength as much 10% in 2019E will give beneficary from reversal of FX losess. Interest-rate hikes are also expected to stop in the near term, will impact to residential acceleration in FY19-FY20E.

    Based on latest strategy report on 30 Nov 2018, our regional team expects IDR to strengthen to IDR12,900 from IDR14,500, on the back of narrowing growth and yield differentials between the US and rest of the world. This should alleviate inflation and pressure on the BI to raise rates, potentially catalysing property demand in 2019E.

    Aurellia also increases presales assumptions by 2-8% as banks appear to have a high appetite for mortgage lending. They are offering competitive rates to sustain affordability.

    After booking high non-cash FX losses of IDR405b or 23% of its EBIT in 9M18 for its USD649m bond, Aurellia assume FX reversals in FY19E. FX gains plus higher presales lift her EPS forecasts for FY18-20E.

    Aurellia views that BSDE has underperformed JCI by 13% YTD as investors fret over its USD649m bond exposure. As of 9M18, it held USD331m of cash to parthedge its FX exposure. Net gearing of 20% was also one of the lowest in the sector.
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  • #BSDE -D1
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  • PT Valbury Sekuritas Indonesia
    Market Summary
    30 November 2018

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    Sentimen pasar dari dalam negeri:
    Presiden Joko Widodo menyatakan akan mengeluarkan UMKM dari rencana relaksasi Daftar Negatif Investasi (DNI), yang masuk dalam Paket Kebijakan Ekonomi ke-16. Keputusan tersebut diambil setelah mendapatkan masukan dari Kamar Dagang dan Industri Indonesia (Kadin) dan Umum Himpunan Pengusaha Muda Indonesia (HIPMI).  Hal ini dengan mempertimbangkan bahwa kontribusi UMKM terhadap produk domestik bruto (PDB) Indonesia sangatlah besar. Mayoritas tenaga kerja Indonesia yang berada di sektor UMKM telah memberikan kontribusi terhadap PDB mencapai 60%.

    Kabar lainnya, tantangan bagi perekonomian nasional di 2019 diperkirakan masih cukup besar. Di tataran global, dampak perang dagang yang dilancarkan AS pada sejumlah mitra dagang terutama China akan semakin terasa di sektor riil. Menteri Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian Darmin Nasution mengatakan, Indonesia bukan negara yang terlibat langsung dalam perang dagang AS dan China. Namun, kedua negara besar itu merupakan partner dagang utama bagi Indonesia. Namun, Darmin menuturkan bahwa perang dagang dapat memberikan dampak positif meski tidak langsung, terutama relokasi investasi baik investor Cina, AS maupun Eropa ke dalam negeri.

    Gubernur Bank Indonesia (BI) Perry Warjiyo mengatakan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada 2019 diperkirakan tetap meningkat hingga mencapai kisaran 5,0% hingga 5,4% Inflasi 2019 tetap terkendali pada kisaran sasaran 3,5% plus 1%.

    Sentimen pasar dari luar negeri :
    Dari AS, Presiden Donald Trump mengatakan pemberlakuan tarif impor AS pada truk kecil buatan luar negeri akan mencegah penutupan beberapa pabrik General Motors (GM) dan hilangnya ribuan lapangan kerja manufaktur yang didambakan. Menurutnya kenaikan penjualan truk kecil AS di Amerika disebabkan oleh tarif impor sebesar 25% terhadap impor truk kecil.

    Prediksi IHSG :
    Terbatasnya katalis positif bagi pasar serta sinyalemen akan teknikal koreksi atas indeks global dapat menjadi faktor penekan bagi IHSG pada perdagangan saham hari ini. Selain itu, koreksi saham AS pada Kamis semakin menguatkan potensi koreksi saham Asia.

    Perspektif tenikal
    Support Level :    6055/6004/5978
    Resistance Level :   6133/6159/6211
    Major Trend : Down
    Minor Trend : Up
    Pattern : Down



    TRADING IDEAS :
    These recommendations based on technical and only intended for one day trading

    SMGR: Trading Buy
    • Close 12000, TP 12175
    • Boleh buy di level 11625-12000
    • Resistance di 12175 & support di 11625
    • Waspadai jika tembus di 11625
    • Batasi resiko di 11575

    INDF: Trading Buy
    • Close 6400, TP 6500
    • Boleh buy di level  6200-6400
    • Resistance di 6500 & support di 6200
    • Waspadai jika tembus di 6200
    • Batasi resiko di 5150

    WIKA : Trading Buy
    • Close 1495, TP 1530
    • Boleh buy di level  1445-1495
    • Resistance di 1530 & support di 1445
    • Waspadai jika tembus di 1445
    • Batasi resiko di 1430

    PTPP:  Trading Buy
    • Close 1865, TP 1925
    • Boleh buy di level  1745-1865
    • Resistance di 1925 & support di 1745
    • Waspadai jika tembus di 1745
    • Batasi resiko di 1730

    BBCA:  Trading Buy
    • Close 26200, TP 26500
    • Boleh buy di level  25725-26200
    • Resistance di 27125 & support di 25725
    • Waspadai jika tembus di 25725
    • Batasi resiko di 25600

    UNTR:  Trading Buy
    • Close 29350, TP 29875
    • Boleh buy di level  28775-29350
    • Resistance di 29875 & support di 28775
    • Waspadai jika tembus di 28775
    • Batasi resiko di 28600

    Ket.  TP : Target Price


    WATCHING ON SCREEN;
    BSDE, PTPP, WIKA, ADHI, WSKT, BBNI.

    (Disclaimer ON)
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  • #BSDE -H1
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  • MNCS Property Sector Update - Neutral

    Expected Trajectory, Still Down!

    9M18 Results: Kinerja yang Bervariatif, BSDE dan ASRI terkena Dampak Penurunan Rupiah
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    Kami mencatat emiten properti melaporkan kinerja yang bervariasi pada 9M18. Pendapatan terpantau meningkat rata-rata -1,68% YoY (vs 13,84% YoY di 9M17), mencerminkan 67,91%/64,88% dari perkiraan MNCS/Konsensus. PWON membukukan pendapatan 3Q18 tertinggi pada 19,00% YoY, menjadi Rp5,23 triliun, diikuti oleh CTRA (7,89% YoY), ASRI (1,05% YoY) dan SMRA (0,71% YoY). Sementara itu, BSDE dan DMAS melaporkan pendapatan menurun -18,94%/-19,77% YoY, akibat penjualan lahan & bangunan yang melambat. Di sisi lain, presales rata-rata di 9M18 mencapai 73,91%/70,23% dari target MNCS/ Perusahaan. Meskipun pendapatan 9M18 benar-benar menampakkan perubahan positif, bottom line tertekan kerugian Forex losses. SMRA membukukan laba bersih tertinggi sebesar 70,24% YoY, diikuti oleh PWON (25,23% YoY) dan CTRA (2,40% YoY) sementara DMAS, ASRI dan BSDE mencatatkan penurunan laba bersih, disebabkan USD/IDR melemah ke level Rp14,929 (-10,24% YTD).
    Katalis Utama FY19F: Relaksasi LTV dan FDI Berkelanjutan di Sektor Properti
    Kami percaya relaksasi LTV di 8M18 diharapkan menjadi katalis khususnya bagi mid-low segmen dengan skema KPR menjadi pilihan sebagian besar pembeli, sejalan dengan pelonggaran LTV oleh BI untuk semua jenis pembelian rumah pertama. Relaksasi rasio LTV menjadi salah satu strategi yang dijalankan untuk meningkatkan persentase kepemilikan rumah, meskipun baru akan tercermin dalam 6-12 bulan mendatang. Selain itu, kami yakin peluang FDI di sektor properti tetap meningkat. Menurut kami, tenaga kerja yang terjangkau dan ketersediaan lahan & infrastruktur menjadi keunggulan kompetitif nasional. Investasi di segmen perumahan & segmen industri meningkat secara signifikan sebesar 73,42% YoY, senilai USD3,528.88 mn di 9M18.
    Potensi Risiko berasal dari Suku Bunga Tinggi dan Rupiah yang Melemah
    Hingga 11M18, BI telah melakukan peningkatan suku bunga sebanyak enam (6) kali, meningkat 175bps menjadi 6% dan berpotensi meningkatkan suku bunga KPR/KPA meskipun pada 9M18 suku bunga berada di level 9.40%/9.37% (vs10.15%/10.59% pada 9M17). Lebih lanjut, pergerakan nilai tukar rupiah yang cenderung melemah hingga ±Rp14.900 di 9M18, berpotensi menurunkan margin laba bersih beberapa perusahaan yang memiliki eksposur USD.

    Rekomendasi Neutral dengan Saham Pilihan: CTRA, DMAS,SMRA
    Kami mempertahankan pandangan NEUTRAL untuk sektor properti di FY19E, mengharapkan presales untuk stagnan, di FY18E / FY19F di 3,91% / 2,34%, YoY karena: 1) Loosening LTV, dengan potensi untuk menarik lebih banyak pembeli pertama kali; 2) Prospective residential segment untuk pasar bawah dan menengah: 3) FDI yang berkelanjutan di sektor properti. Potensi risiko: 1) Tingkat bunga; 2) NJOP lebih tinggi; 3) Nilai tukar Rupiah. Saham pilihan kami adalah CTRA (HOLD; TP: Rp1,100), DMAS (BUY; TP: Rp202), dan SMRA (BUY; TP: Rp875).

    Disclaimer On
    MNCS Institutional Research Team

    https://www.mncsekuritas.id/category/company-focus
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  • #BSDE -D1
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