[08:54, 1/3/2019] +62 815-7319-0777: FR CGS-CIMB (YU) : Gudang Garam | PDF
Puff up the volume
GGRM IJ / GGRM.JK | ADD - Maintained | Rp83,825.00 tp:Rp96,000.00▲
Mkt.Cap:US$11,208.00m | Avg.Daily Vol:US$5.20m | Free Float:24.50%
Tobacco
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Author(s): Patricia GABRIELA +62 (21) 3006 1734,

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■ Assuming no excise tax hike in 2019F, GGRM’s volume and market share should increase given its past two years’ track record and product lineup.
■ We think GGRM will keep its price increases moderate, perhaps in line with inflation at c.4%, but sufficient to generate 14% earnings growth in FY19F.
■ We project robust earnings momentum in 1Q19, notwithstanding uncertainty on excise hike in Apr 19. M&A talks may pick up by then. Maintain Add.
[08:54, 1/3/2019] +62 815-7319-0777: FR CGS-CIMB (YU) : Economic Update | PDF
Dec 2018 CPI inflation
Author(s): Yee Ping LIM +60 (3) 2261 9083, Michelle CHIA

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■ Headline inflation eased slightly to 3.1% yoy in Dec as decelerating food inflation outweighed rising transport costs.
■ Lower oil prices are the main downside risk to our 2019 inflation forecast of 4.0%, which assumes a subsidised fuel price hike in 2H19F.
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