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  • [09:00, 1/21/2019] +62 815-7319-0777: FR CGS-CIMB (YU) : Banks | PDF
    Nov 18 stats: Stable NIM due to elevated LDR; smaller banks have raised rates
    OVERWEIGHT - Maintained

    Author(s): Jovent GIOVANNY +62 (21) 3006 1727, Timothy HANDERSON, Leonardo TUKIMAN
    ...
    See More

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    ■ System loans grew 12% yoy (flat mom) in Nov 18 while deposits grew slower at 7% yoy (flat mom) – LDR remained high at 93% indicating tighter liquidity.
    ■ NIM remained stable despite higher rates from small-mid sized banks in Nov (c.20bp vs. 7bp mom increase for big banks).
    ■ Asset quality was resilient despite a slight mom uptick in SML. We stay sector Overweight with BBNI as our sector top pick.
    [09:00, 1/21/2019] +62 815-7319-0777: FR CGS-CIMB (YU) : Sarimelati Kencana PT | PDF
    Undervalued despite strengthening rupiah
    PZZA IJ / PZZA.JK | ADD - Maintained | Rp930.00 tp:Rp1,550.00▲
    Mkt.Cap:US$198.00m | Avg.Daily Vol:US$0.03m | Free Float:30.50%
    Food Retail
    Author(s): Kevie ADITYA +62 (21) 3006 1738,

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    ■ We believe SSSG picked up in 4Q18F, backed by better purchasing power and aggressive promotions by various fintech players.
    ■ PZZA met its target of 59 net new outlets in 2018. We expect its franchise fee to go down by 20/30/20bp in FY18/19/20F, respectively.
    ■ The strengthening of the rupiah could significantly benefit PZZA, which we believe is not priced in. We maintain Add with a higher TP of Rp1,550.
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  • Watch Indonesian Plantation Stocks as Palm Oil Price Seen Rising
    2019-01-21 01:34:55.554 GMT


    By Harry Suhartono
    ...
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    (Bloomberg) -- Indonesian plantation shares may gain after
    a projection that the price of palm oil may advance by as much
    as $100 a metric ton through June as inventories of the tropical
    oil decline.
    * NOTE: Crude palm oil price depends on the outlook for
    stockpiles, which will shrink until the middle of the year,
    “especially if Indonesia maintains its heightened pace of
    biodiesel use,” LMC International Ltd. Chairman James Fry, a
    closely watched industry analyst, said on Saturday
    * NOTE: Crude palm oil futures traded at the equivalent of ~
    $540 as of Friday close
    * Stocks to watch are:
    ** Astra Agro Lestari, Perusahaan Perkebunan London Sumatra
    Indonesia, Tunas Baru Lampung, Salim Ivomas Pratama, Sampoerna
    Agro, Provident Agro, Sinar Mas Agro Resources and Technology
    * Jakarta Agricultural Index +1.2% since the start of 2019, the
    worst performer among 9 industry groups in Jakarta Composite
    Index
    ** Benchmark gauge +4.1% so far this month
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  • Good morning,

    Dow jumps more than 300 points, posts first 4-week winning streak since August

    Stocks rose on Friday as investors cheered potential progress in trade negotiations between China and the U.S.
    ...
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    Dow.....24706 +336.3 +1.38%
    Nasdaq..7157 +72.8 +1.03%
    S&P 500.2671 +34.8 +1.32%

    FTSE.......6868 +133.4 +1.95%
    Dax........11206 +286.9 +2.63%
    CAC........4876 +81.6 +1.70%

    Nikkei....20666 +263.8 +1.29%
    HSI.........27091 +335.2 +1.25%
    Shanghai.2596 +36.4 +1.42%
    ST Times.3224 +9.9 +0.31%
     
    Indo10Yr..8.3174 +0.0292 +0.35%
    INDOBex240.1755 -0.0066 -0.00%
    US10Yr....2.7840 +0.0350 +1.27%
    VIX...........17.80 -0.26 -1.44%

    USDIndx .....96.3360 +0.260 +0.27%
    Como Indx..182.21 +2.46 +1.37%
    (Core Commodity CRB)
    DJUSCL.......60.05 +0.93 +1.57%
    (Dow Jones US Coal Index) 

    IndoCDS...123.305 -3.495 -2.76%
    (5-yr INOCD5) 

    IDR........14177.50 -14.00 -0.10%
    Jisdor....14182 +24 +0.17%
    IDR Fut..14175.00 -5.00 -0.04%

    Euro.........1.1363 -0.0026 -0.23%

    TLKM......28.39 +0.24 +0.85%
    (4026)
    EIDO.........27.04 +0.07 +0.26%
    EEM..........41.55 +0.20 +0.48%

    Oil........53.80 +1.55 +3.04%
    Gold ......1282.60 -9.00 -0.70%
    Timah....20600.00 -12.50 -0.06%
    Nickel....11807.50 +225 +1.94%

    Coal price 99.75 -0.55 -0.55%
    (Jan/Newcastle)
    Coal price 101.80 -0.50 -0.49%
    (Feb/Newcastle)
    Coal price 83.20 -0.20 -0.24%
    (Jan/Rotterdam)
    Coal price 85.50 -0.20 -0.23%
    (Feb/ Rotterdam)

    CPO(Apr) 2223 +26 +1.18%
    (Source: bursamalaysia.com)
    Corn...........381.75 +1.75 +0.46%
    SoybeanOil 29.01 +0.24 +0.83%
    Wheat........517.75 unch +0%

    Rubber.......186.20 +2.70 +1.47%
    (Tokyo)JPY/kg

    Pulp(BHKP) - - -

    (DE/ls 21-01-19)
     
    ***
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  • Good morning,

    Stocks rise after report says US considering easing China tariffs during negotiations

    Stocks rose on Thursday on the back of a report that said the U.S. could ease tariffs on Chinese goods during their trade negotiations with China.
    ...
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    Dow.....24370 +162.9 +0.67%
    Nasdaq..7085 +49.8 +0.71%
    S&P 500.2636 +19.9 +0.76%

    FTSE.......6835 -27.8 -0.40%
    Dax........10919 -12.6 -0.12%
    CAC........4794 -16.4 -0.34%

    Nikkei....20402 -40.5 -0.20%
    HSI.........26756 -146.5 -0.54%
    Shanghai.2600 -10.8 -0.42%
    ST Times.3214 -14.7 -0.45%
     
    Indo10Yr..8.2882 +0.0396 +0.48%
    INDOBex240.1821 -0.3748 -0.16%
    US10Yr....2.7490 +0.0180 +0.66%
    VIX...........18.06 -0.98 -5.15%

    USDIndx .....96.0760 -0.007 -0.007%
    Como Indx..179.76 +0.12 +0.06%
    (Core Commodity CRB)
    DJUSCL.......59.12 +2.69 +4.77%
    (Dow Jones US Coal Index) 

    IndoCDS...126.80 +2.605 +2.10%
    (5-yr INOCD5) 

    IDR........14191.50 +64.00 +0.4/%
    Jisdor....14158 +4 +0.03%
    IDR Fut..14180.00 +57.50 +0.41%

    Euro.........1.1389 -0.0006 -0.05%

    TLKM......28.15 -0.17 -0.60%
    (3985)
    EIDO.........26.97 +0.20 +0.75%
    EEM..........41.35 +0.18 +0.44%

    Oil..........52.21 -0.14 -0.27%
    Gold ......1291.60 -2.00 -0.15%
    Timah....20612.50 +90.00 +0.44%
    Nickel....11582.50 -25 -0.22%

    Coal price 100.30 +0.60 +0.60%
    (Jan/Newcastle)
    Coal price 102.30 -0.20 -0.20%
    (Feb/Newcastle)
    Coal price 83.40 +0.65 +0.79%
    (Jan/Rotterdam)
    Coal price 85.70 +1.55 +1.84%
    (Feb/ Rotterdam)

    CPO(Apr) 2197 +23 +1.06%
    (Source: bursamalaysia.com)
    Corn...........380.00 +6.00 +1.60%
    SoybeanOil 28.77 +0.54 +1.91%
    Wheat........517.75 +5.25 +1.02%

    Rubber.......183.50 +0.80 +0.44%
    (Tokyo)JPY/kg

    Pulp(BHKP) - - -

    (DE/ls 18-01-19)
     
    ***
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  • BCAS Technical View 17 Jan 2019

    Stock pick

    1. IHSG (6413) - SOS (6355-6500)
    ...
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    Hari ini IHSG masih akan berfluktuasi dengan potensi profit taking dan bergerak dalam range 6355-6500 dengan pertimbangan: Muncul Hanging man candle dengan RSI melemah dan SO berpotensi DX serta volume perdagangan menurun. Menguji resistance level terdekat di 6415-6460 dan menguji support level awal di 6373-6408.

    2. BBTN (2.750) – BOW (2.670-2.880)
    Muncul Inverted hammer candle dengan MA5 berpotensi GX diikuti kenaikan volume perdagangan namun RSI melemah dan SO berpotensi DX. Hari ini menguji support level terdekat di 2.670-2.720 dengan potensi rebound dan menguji resistance level awal 2.770-2.820. HOLD jika mampu break dan bertahan di atas 2.800. Stop loss jika break support level 2.670.

    3. DOID (615) - Spec BUY (550-715)
    Menguji Three white soldiers pattern candle dengan RSI menguat dan SO berpotongan GX diikuti kenaikan volume perdagangan. Hari ini menguji resistance level 625-665 namun rawan profit taking dan menguji support level awal 550-595. HOLD jika mampu break dan bertahan di 665. Stop loss jika break 550.

    4. HRUM (1.740) – Spec BUY (1.640-1.870)
    Muncul Bullish engulfing pattern candle dengan RSI menguat dan SO berpotongan GX diikuti kenaikan volume perdagangan. Hari ini menguji support level 1.640-1.720 dan menguji resistance level awal 1.760-1.800. HOLD jika mampu break dan bertahan di atas 1.800. Stop loss jika break support level 1.640.

    5. INDY (1.935) – Spec BUY (1.875-2.020)
    Muncul Inverted hammer candle dengan RSI menguat diikuti kenaikan volume perdagangan. Hari ini berpotensi menguji resistance level awal 1.950-2.020 namun rawan profit taking dan menguji support level 1.875-1.920. HOLD jika mampu break dan bertahan di atas 2.000-2.020. Stop loss jika break 1.875.

    6. KINO (2.930) – Spec BUY (2.860-3.010)
    Muncul Spinning top white candle dengan MACD berpotensi GX dan RSI menguat diikuti kenaikan volume perdagangan. Hari ini menguji resistance level 2.950-3.010 namun rawan profit taking dan menguji support level terdekat 2.870-2.910. Sell On Strength jika gagal break dan bertahan di atas 3.000. Stop loss jika break support level 2.860.

    7. PTBA (4.380) – Spec BUY (4.330-4.500)
    Menguji Three black crows pattern candle dengan volume perdagangan menurun namun RSI menguat. Hari ini menguji support level 4.330-4.360 dengan potensi rebound dan menguji resistance level awal di 4.400-4.450. HOLD jika mampu break dan bertahan di atas 4.450. Stop loss jika break 4.330.

    8. UNTR (26.050) – Spec BUY (25.275-27.150)
    Muncul Bullish harami pattern candle dengan RSI menguat namun volume perdagangan menurun. Hari ini menguji support level 25.275-25.850 dengan potensi rebound dan menguji resistance level awal 26.350-27.150. HOLD jika mampu break dan bertahan di atas 26.400-27.150. Stop loss jika break support level 25.275.

    9. WOOD (605) – Spec BUY (575-670)
    Muncul Inverted hammer candle dengan RSI meelemah dan volume perdagangan menurun namun MA5 berpotongan GX dan MACD berpotensi GX. Hari ini menguji resistance level awal di 620-670 dan menguji support level 580-600. HOLD jika mampu break dan bertahan di atas 630. Stop loss jika break 575.

    10. BMRI (7.800) - SOS (7.575-8.100)
    Muncul Northern star doji candle dengan volume perdagangan menurun namun RSI menguat dan SO berpotongan GX. Hari ini menguji resistance level terdekat di 7.875-8.100 namun rawan profit taking dan menguji support level terdekat 7.575-7.750. HOLD jika mampu break dan bertahan di atas 7.900-8.000. Stop loss jika break 7.575.

    11. KRAS (470) – SOS (458-484)
    Menguji Three white soldiers pattern candle dengan RSI menguat namun SO berada di area jenuh beli dan volume perdagangan menurun. Hari ini menguji resistance level awal 474-484 namun rawan profit taking dan menguji support level awal di 458-466. HOLD jika mampu break dan bertahan di atas 480-484. Stop loss jika break 458.

    Link Report : https://goo.gl/eVuw6W

    Watchlist
    ADHI, APIC, APLN, ASII, ASRI, AUTO, BABP, BBCA, BBNI, BDMN, BEST, BKSL, BNBA, BNII, BTPS, BWPT, CTTH, DYAN, ESSA, FINN, GZCO, HEXA, IKAI, IMAS, INCO, INDF, INDR, INTP, IPCM, JSMR, JTPE, KBLI, KRAS, KREN, LPKR, MAPI, MBAP, MPMX, MPRO, PGAS, PPRO, PZZA, RBMS, RISE, ROTI, SDMU, SGRO, SIDO, SMDR, SMGR, SMSM, SRIL, SMSM, TINS, TIRA, TLKM, TKIM, TOPS, WEGE, WSBP,

    Disclaimer On
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  • Good morning,

    Dow gains more than 100 points as Goldman posts best day in 10 years

    Stocks rose on Wednesday as investors cheered strong quarterly earnings from major banks like Goldman Sachs and Bank of America.
    ...
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    Dow.....24207 +141.6 +0.59%
    Nasdaq..7035 +10.9 +0.15%
    S&P 500.2616 +5.8 +0.22%

    FTSE.......6863 -32.3 -0.47%
    Dax........10931 +39.5 +0.36%
    CAC........4810 +24.6 +0.51%

    Nikkei....20443 -112.5 -0.55%
    HSI.........26902 +71.8 +0.27%
    Shanghai.2570 +0.08 +0.00%
    ST Times.3229 +16.8 +0.52%
     
    Indo10Yr..8.2486 +0.0165 +0.20%
    INDOBex240.5569 -0.2122 -0.09%
    US10Yr....2.7310 +0.020 +0.74%
    VIX...........19.04 +0.44 +2.37%

    USDIndx .....96.0830 +0.114 +0.12%
    Como Indx..179.64 +0.66 +0.37%
    (Core Commodity CRB)
    DJUSCL.......56.43 +1.82 +3.33%
    (Dow Jones US Coal Index) 

    IndoCDS...124.195 -4.105 -3.20%
    (5-yr INOCD5) 

    IDR........14127.50 +37.50 +0.27%
    Jisdor....14154 +70 +0.50%
    IDR Fut..14122.50 -1.50 -0.01%

    Euro.........1.1395 -0.0018 -0.16%

    TLKM......28.32 +0.69 +2.50%
    (4008)
    EIDO.........26.77 +0.35 +1.32%
    EEM..........41.17 +0.50 +1.23%

    Oil..........52.35 +0.43 +0.83%
    Gold ......1293.60 +4.40 +0.34%
    Timah....20552.50 -145.00 -0.70%
    Nickel....11607.50 unch +0%

    Coal price 99.70 +1.00 +1.01%
    (Jan/Newcastle)
    Coal price 102.50 +2.80 +2.80%
    (Feb/Newcastle)
    Coal price 82.75 +0.35 +0.42%
    (Jan/Rotterdam)
    Coal price 84.15 +1.45 +1.75%
    (Feb/ Rotterdam)

    CPO(Apr) 2174 -10 -0.46%
    (Source: bursamalaysia.com)
    Corn...........374.00 +2.75 +0.74%
    SoybeanOil 28.23 -0.01 -0.04%
    Wheat........512.50 +1.50 +0.29%

    Rubber.......182.70 +1.90 +1.05%
    (Tokyo)JPY/kg

    *Pulp(BHKP) - -

    (DE/ls 17-01-19)
     
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  • [10:19, 1/16/2019] +62 815-7319-0777: FR CGS-CIMB (YU) : Bank Rakyat Indonesia | PDF
    Lower proportion of KUR and improvement in liquidity are a boon to margins
    BBRI IJ / BBRI.JK | ADD - Maintained | Rp3,790.00 tp:Rp4,700.00
    Mkt.Cap:US$33,096.00m | Avg.Daily Vol:US$24.62m | Free Float:43.30%
    Banks
    ...
    See More
    Author(s): Jovent GIOVANNY +62 (21) 3006 1727, Timothy HANDERSON, Leonardo TUKIMAN

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    ■ BBRI’s KUR target for 2019 is raised by 9% to c.Rp87tr, a relatively mild increase. The interest and subsidy rates for 2019 KUR are left unchanged.
    ■ The benign KUR target should create room for a higher proportion of Kupedes (conventional micro), which is reflected in 4Q18 numbers.
    ■ Improving liquidity should also be positive for its margin outlook. Subsiding M&A risk could also lift the overhang on the stock. Maintain Add.
    [10:19, 1/16/2019] +62 815-7319-0777: FR CGS-CIMB (YU) : Economic Update | PDF
    Dec 2018 trade
    Author(s): Yee Ping LIM +60 (3) 2261 9083, Michelle CHIA

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    ■ Dec’s trade deficit improved to US$1.1bn amid sharp deceleration in gross imports though lower commodity exports deepened export contraction.
    ■ We project higher goods trade deficit and lower travel services surplus to outweigh smaller primary income deficit in 4Q18, lifting CAD to 4.4% of GDP.
    ■ We maintain our gross export growth at 6.2% and gross import growth at 4.9% for 2019.
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  • Foreigners Return to Indonesian Stocks as Rupiah Advances: Chart
    2019-01-15 23:36:36.621 GMT


    By Harry Suhartono
    ...
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    (Bloomberg) -- Indonesian stocks are enjoying the biggest net inflows among Southeast Asian peers this month as a stronger rupiah is boosting confidence among foreigners. Overseas investors added money to the nation’s equity funds for a 12th straight day, the longest streak in a year. The benchmark
    Jakarta Composite Index has advanced 3.5 percent in January
    through Tuesday, with the rupiah’s 2.1 percent advance
    propelling it to the region’s best performer.
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  • MNC Daily Scope Wave
    16 Januari 2019

    Dengan menguatnya IHSG ke level 6,408 pada penutupan perdagangan kemarin, dapat diperkirakan bahwa posisi IHSG sudah berada pada akhir wave (v) dari wave iii yang idealnya berada pada level 6,415-6,420. IHSG berpotensi untuk terkoreksi membentuk wave iv ke level 6,290.

    ...
    See More
    Support: 6,320, 6,240
    Resistance: 6,480, 6,570

    Commodity - Tin
    Pergerakan harga timah yang terus menguat kami perkirakan sedang membentuk wave [iii], dengan target penguatan pada area 21,200.

    UNTR - Buy on Weakness
    Kami memperkirakan UNTR masih dapat terkoreksi kembali yang kami perkirakan dapat mencapai level 24,525 untuk membentuk wave (v) dari wave (C) dari wave [4]. Buy on Weakness 24,525-25,500; target price 27,525, 29,450; stoploss 22,000.

    ADRO - Buy on Weakness
    Kami memperkirakan ADRO sudah menyelesaikan wave (ii) dan sedang membentuk wave (iii) dengan target 1,600. Buy on Weakness 1,430-1,450; target price 1,500, 1,540, 1,600; stoploss 1,300.

    TBIG - Sell on Strength
    Posisi TBIG kami perkirakan sudah berada pada akhir wave (iii) dari wave [iii] dan berpotensi terkoreksi untuk membentuk wave (iv) dari wave [iii] ke level 4,720. Sell on Strength TBIG 4,980-5,050.

    TINS - Sell on Strength
    Posisi TINS kami perkirakan saat ini sedang berada pada akhir wave [iii] dan berpotensi terkoreksi untuk membentuk wave [iv] ke arah 850-855. Sell on Strength 945-975.

    Disclaimer On
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  • Good morning,

    Dow rises more than 100 points, Netflix leads tech rally

    Stocks rose on Tuesday as Netflix led a rally in tech-related names after news that it would hike its monthly membership prices.
    ...
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    Dow.....24066 +155.8 +0.65%
    Nasdaq..7024 +117.9 +1.71%
    S&P 500.2610 +27.7 +1.07%

    FTSE.......6895 +40.0 +0.58%
    Dax........10892 +35.9 +0.33%
    CAC........4786 +23.4 +0.49%

    Nikkei....20555 +195.6 +0.96%
    HSI.........26830 +531.96 +2.02%
    Shanghai.2570 +34.6 +1.36%
    ST Times.3212 +38.8 +1.22%
     
    Indo10Yr..8.2321 +0.0235 +0.29%
    INDOBex240.7691 -0.3279 -0.14%
    US10Yr....2.7110 +0.010 +0.04%
    VIX...........18.60 -0.47 -2.46%

    USDIndx .....95.9690 +0.382 +0.40%
    Como Indx..178.98 +1.19 +0.67%
    (Core Commodity CRB)
    DJUSCL.......54.61 -1.30 -2.33%
    (Dow Jones US Coal Index) 

    IndoCDS...128.30 -2.765 -2.11%
    (5-yr INOCD5) 

    IDR........14090.00 -34.50 -0.24%
    Jisdor....14084 +34 +0.23%
    IDR Fut..14124.00 -31.50 -0.22%

    Euro.........1.1413 -0.0056 -0.49%

    TLKM......27.63 +0.23 +0.84%
    (3891)
    EIDO.........26.42 +0.10 +0.38%
    EEM..........40.67 +0.28 +0.69%

    Oil..........51.92 +1.19 +2.35%
    Gold ......1289.20 -2.60 -0.20%
    Timah....20667.50 +150.00 +0.73%
    Nickel....11607.50 +210.00 +1.84%

    Coal price 98.70 +1.35 +1.39%
    (Jan/Newcastle)
    Coal price 99.70 +2.20 +2.26%
    (Feb/Newcastle)
    Coal price 82.40 +0.35 +0.43%
    (Jan/Rotterdam)
    Coal price 82.70 +1.40 +1.72%
    (Feb/ Rotterdam)

    CPO(Mar) 2147 +13 +0.61%
    (Source: bursamalaysia.com)
    Corn...........371.25 -7.25 -1.92%
    SoybeanOil 28.24 -0.16 -0.56%
    Wheat........511.00 -3.25 -0.63%

    Rubber.......180.80 -2.40 -1.31%
    (Tokyo)JPY/kg

    Pulp(BHKP) - - -

    (DE/ls 16-01-19)
     
    ***
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  • FR CGS-CIMB (YU) : Summarecon Agung | PDF
    2019 presales target seems fair, though still highly reliant on Serpong; upside is from deleveraging
    SMRA IJ / SMRA.JK | HOLD - Maintained | Rp1,000.00 tp:Rp1,150.00
    Mkt.Cap:US$1,027.00m | Avg.Daily Vol:US$1.13m | Free Float:57.50%
    Property Devt & Invt
    ...
    See More
    Author(s): Jovent GIOVANNY +62 (21) 3006 1727, Timothy HANDERSON, Leonardo TUKIMAN

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    ■ After missing its 2018 target, SMRA has set a 2019 presales target of Rp4tr (+18% yoy/flat from initial 2018 target). Serpong will remain the driver (50%).
    ■ We think SMRA’s target is achievable given: 1) the improving currency outlook, 2) expectations of a peaceful election, and 3) an infra spillover.
    ■ Maintain Hold in the absence of catalysts. Key upside risks will be better presales and successful deleveraging.
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  • MNC Daily Scope Wave
    15 Januari 2019

    Penutupan IHSG diawal pekan ini melemah 0,4%, kami menganggap bahwa pelemahan ini merupakan koreksi wajar yang harus dialami oleh IHSG. Hal ini berarti IHSG sudah menyelesaikan wave (v) dari wave iii dan sedang mengawali pembentukan wave iv. Idealnya IHSG akan terkoreksi ke arah 6,250.

    ...
    See More
    Support: 6,280, 6,210
    Resistance: 6,400, 6,480

    WIIM - Buy on Weakness
    Kami memperkirakan WIIM sudah berada pada akhir wave [b] dan akan menguat untuk membentuk wave [c]. Buy on Weakness 170-173; target price 195, 202, 209; stoploss 150.

    ASII - Buy on Weakness
    Kami memperkirakan ASII sedang berada pada awal wave [v] dan berpotensi menguat ke arah 9,300. Buy on Weakness 8,000-8,100; target price 9,000-9,275; stoploss 7,825.

    DMAS - Sell on Strength
    Kami memperkirakan posisi DMAS sudah berada pada akhir wave (b) dari wave [B] dan berpotensi melemah untuk membentuk wave (c) ke arah 152. Sell on Strength 180-195.

    BBRI - Sell on Strength
    Posisi BBRI saat ini sudah berada pada akhir wave (i) dari wave [v], dimana BBRI berpotensi melemah untuk membentuk wave (ii) ke arah 3,680. Sell on Strength 3,790-3,860.

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  • [ASII IJ]: Toyota launched new Avanza facelifted today. In line with our previous note, it has major change in exterior and upgrade features. We see this should boost Astra vehicles sales. Reiterate BUY on Astra with IDR9,500 TP ( 17% upside).

    Our previous note on Astra: https://research.rhbtradesmart.com/attachments/1/rhb-report-ind_astra-international_company-update_20190109_rhb-87623439139529505c3521570a900.pdf
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  • [RHB Planet Series]: New Trans-Java Toll Road To Spur Java’s Growth
    Andrey Wijaya - RHB Sekuritas
    Michael Setjoadi - RHB Sekuritas

    ♦ We travelled from Jakarta to Semarang along the newly-inaugurated 402km Trans-Java toll road. Total travel time from Cikarang to Semarang can now be as short as 5.5 hours (vs 9.5 hours via the Pantura highway).
    ...
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    ♦ This should improve growth in Central Java, as the new road incentivises labour-intensive manufacturers to migrate to the area, as the minimum wage is less than half than that of greater Jakarta.

    ♦ Jasa Marga is a key beneficiary of the full connection of this toll road. Companies we visited (Jasa Marga, Sido Muncul, Pan Brothers, Sri Rejeki Isman and Erajaya Swasembada) should also benefit from lower logistics costs.

    Details is in our 26 pages report: https://research.rhbtradesmart.com/attachments/17/rhb-report-ind_trans-java-toll-road_on-the-road_20190115_rhb-339735018618220985c3d085a8cb6a.pdf
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  • Good morning,

    Stocks post back-to-back losses for the first time this year on earnings worries

    Stocks fell on Monday as the U.S. corporate earnings season kicked off. Concerns over an economic slowdown in China also dampened sentiment to start off the week.
    ...
    See More

    Dow.....23910 -86.1 -0.36%
    Nasdaq..6906 -65.6 -0.94%
    S&P 500.2583 -13.7 -0.53%

    FTSE.......6855 -63.2 -0.91%
    Dax........10856 -31.6 -0.29%
    CAC........4763 -18.6 -0.39%

    Nikkei....20360 +195.9 +0.97%
    HSI.........26298 -368.9 -1.38%
    Shanghai.2536 -18.1 -0.71%
    ST Times.3174 -25.2 -0.79%
     
    Indo10Yr..8.2086 +0.0162 +0.20%
    INDOBex241.0970 -0.0060 -0.00%
    US10Yr....2.7100 +0.009 +0.33%
    VIX...........19.07 +0.88 +4.84%

    USDIndx .....95.5870 -0.0830 -0.09%
    Como Indx..177.79 -0.29 -0.16%
    (Core Commodity CRB)
    DJUSCL.......55.91 +0.64 +1.16%
    (Dow Jones US Coal Index) 

    IndoCDS...131.065 +3.285 +2.57%
    (5-yr INOCD5) 

    IDR........14124.50 +77.00 +0.55%
    Jisdor....14052 -24 -0.17%
    IDR Fut..14124.00 +79.00 +0.56%

    Euro.........1.1468 -0.0001 -0.01%

    TLKM......27.40 -0.15 -0.54%
    (3850)
    EIDO.........26.32 -0.15 -0.57%
    EEM..........40.39 -0.34 -0.83%

    Oil..........50.73 -0.86 -1.67%
    Gold ......1291.80 +2.30 +0.18%
    Timah....20517.50 +232.50 +1.15%
    Nickel....11397.50 -65.00 -0.57%

    Coal price 97.35 -0.70 -0.71%
    (Jan/Newcastle)
    Coal price 97.50 -0.35 -0.36%
    (Feb/Newcastle)
    Coal price 82.05 -0.50 -0.61%
    (Jan/Rotterdam)
    Coal price 81.30 -1.20 -1.45%
    (Feb/ Rotterdam)

    CPO(Mar) 2134 -39 -1.79%
    (Source: bursamalaysia.com)
    Corn...........378.50 +0.25 +0.07%
    SoybeanOil 28.40 -0.01 -0.04%
    Wheat........514.25 -5.25 -1.01%

    Rubber.......183.20 unch +0%
    (Tokyo)JPY/kg

    Pulp(BHKP) - - -

    (DE/ls 15-01-19)
     
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  • IHSG: 6361.47
    Hari ini faktor global diperkirakan cenderung netral menyusul penutupan indeks Dow Jones dan Nasdaq yang melemah tipis cenderung flat. Pola pergerakan indeks global tersebut mengindikasikan bahwa pasar global sedang melakukan konsolidasi setelah dalam 5 hari perdagangan sebelumnya mengalami penguatan harga secara berturut-turut. Selain itu, mulai meningkatnya kekhawatiran terhadap diperpanjangnya US government shutdown menjadi pendorong bagi investor yang tidak menyukai risiko untuk melakukan profit taking. Sementara itu indeks kawasan regional yang cenderung mixed dan harga minyak yang juga sedang melakukan konsolidasi diperkirakan akan netral pengaruhnya terhadap indeks BEI. Pergerakan indeks diperkirakan masih akan cenderung fluktuatif dan pergerakan saham masih mixed sehingga investor sebaiknya selektif dalam melakukan transaksi day trading.

    Aspek teknikal, indeks pada perdagangan hari ini diperkirakan akan bergerak dalam trend konsolidasi menyusul indikator volatilitas yang kian menurun. Range pergerakan indeks untuk hari ini diperkirakan akan berada di rentang 6310-6415. Sedangkan untuk minggu ini, indeks diperkirakan masih berpotensi untuk bergerak dengan trend menguat setelah pada perdagangan minggu lalu ditutup positif. Range pergerakan minggu ini diperkirakan akan berada di rentang 6240-6480.

    ...
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    Rekomendasi Harian

    INTP – BUY

    Harga melakukan rebound sehingga aksi beli dapat dilakukan di level Rp18,000 dengan target keuntungan di level Rp19,000.

    ASII – BUY

    Harga ditutup diatas garis MA 20-hari sehingga aksi beli dapat dilakukan di level Rp8,275 dengan target keuntungan di level Rp8,600.

    Berita Korporasi

    INTP membukukan volume penjualan sebesar 18 juta ton pada 2018 atau naik 6% yoy dari tahun sebelumnya.

    INTA menggeser penjualan produknya dari sektor pertambangan batu bara ke sektor lain untuk antisipasi resiko pelemahan harga batu bara.

    MMLP berencana menambah 3 gudang baru dengan luas diatas 100.000 M2.

    WEGE menyiapkan belanja modal sekitar Rp650 miliar untuk pengembangan bisnis konsesi pada 2019.

    PTPP: Konsorsium Perseroan, PT Bumi Karsa, PT China Communications Construction Engineering Indonesia, dan PT Iroda Mitra akan membentuk perusahaan patungan (Joint Venture/JV) untuk mengerjakan proyek perkeretaapian umum Makasar-Parepare yang dimenangkan konsorsium tersebut.

    PDIB akan membangun pabrik baru di wilayah Jawa Tengah diatas lahan seluas 12 Ha yang akan diakuisisi.

    LPKR menjual saham di dua rumah sakit di Myanmar kepada OUE Lippo Healthcare Limited melalui PT Waluya Graha Loka senilai US$19.5 juta pada tanggal 10/1/2019.

    PGAS akan mengalokasikan dana investasi 2019 sebesar US$500 juta untuk pembangunan pipa tambahan sekitar 700 km.

    STTP: Pemeringkat Efek Indonesia (Pefindo) memberikan peringkat idA untuk perseroan dan obligasi berkelanjutan I tahun 2016.

    Info lengkap baca UOBKH retail monitor

    Please click here for full disclosures/disclaimers:
    http://research.uobkayhian.com/content_download.jsp?id=29176&h=90664f7d1cde0398e10c9466ef495b89
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  • MNC Daily Scope Wave
    14 Januari 2019

    IHSG pada perdagangan akhir pekan kemarin (11/1) menguat 0.5% dan ditutup pada level 6,361. Kami perkirakan hari ini IHSG masih cenderung menguat menuju area 6,400 untuk membentuk wave (v) dari wave iii.

    ...
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    Support: 6,300, 6,230
    Resistance: 6,430, 6,500

    ANTM - Buy on Weakness
    Kami memperkirakan posisi ANTM sedang membentuk wave (iii) dari wave [c] ke arah 835. Buy on Weakness 775-785; target price 810, 835; stoploss 755.

    HOKI - Buy on Weakness
    HOKI kami perkirakan telah berada pada akhir wave (ii) dari wave [iii] dan akan menguat idealnya ke 830 untuk membentuk wave (iii) dari wave [iii]. Buy on Weakness 710-730; target price 780, 830; stoploss 685.

    KIJA - Sell on Strength
    Posisi KIJA kami perkirakan sedang membentuk wave (c) dari wave [iv] ke arah 264 dan idealnya ke 250. Sell on Strength 272-276.

    ACES - Sell on Strength
    ACES kami perkirakan sudah selesai membentuk wave [5] pada puncaknya di harga 1,760, dan saat ini ACES kami perkirakan melemah untuk membentuk wave [a] ke arah 1,600 dan idealnya ke 1,510. Sell on Strength 1,690-1,715.

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  • "Dollar gains, but outlook suggests weak trend"

    The dollar rose against the euro on Friday, boosted by technical factors after the single currency hit key resistance levels, even as the greenback's outlook remained bleak amid cautious signals from the Federal Reserve about further rate hikes.

    "It seems like we're getting some model and stop-loss buying on the dollar after the euro hit resistance on the upside," said John Doyle, vice president of dealing and trading at Tempus Inc in Washington.
    ...
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    "The sharpest move was in euro/dollar and it has become this across-the-board buying of the dollar," he added.

    That said, investors remained wary of pushing the dollar a lot higher.

    This week's Fed minutes, which underscored the U.S. central bank's flexibility on monetary policy, triggered dollar selling that lifted the euro as high as $1.1581 and propelled it past a 100-day moving average for the first time in three months.

    Greg Anderson, global head of FX strategy at BMO Capital Markets in New York, said the Fed's rate outlook was just one factor for the dollar's weakness so far in January.

    The Fed chairman said on Thursday in a forum at the Economic Club of Washington that the U.S. central bank intends to shrink its balance sheet further, suggesting it is not done tightening monetary policy just yet.

    Markets, however, are pricing in no further rate hikes by the Fed this year.

    Data showing U.S. consumer prices in December fell for the first time in nine months in December had little impact on the market, but it backed the Fed's cautious stance about raising rates this year.
    •••••••••••••

    "Dollar gains, but outlook suggests weak trend" - http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-forex/dollar-gains-but-outlook-suggests-weak-trend-idUSKCN1P501T
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  • "Wall Street's five-day rally flickers out as earnings near"

    Wall Street dipped slightly on Friday, breaking a five-session rally, as energy shares declined and investors looked ahead to earnings season, which kicks off next week with Citigroup, JPMorgan and other big banks.

    Underpinned by optimism over China-U.S. trade talks and expectations of a slow pace of interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, the stock market's winning streak through Thursday added 6 percent to the S&P 500 and left it up about 10 percent from the 20-month low it hit around Christmas.
    ...
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    The S&P 500 on Friday ended down just 0.01 percent after recovering from a loss of 0.74 percent earlier in the session.

    "We've clawed our way back and now the market is just waiting ahead of the start of earnings season next week," said Donald Selkin, Chief Market Strategist at Newbridge Securities in New York. "We're just drifting."

    The S&P energy index was off 0.63 percent, leading declines among 11 sectors, as oil prices dropped after nine days of gains. [O/R]

    The financial index climbed 0.17 percent. Citigroup Inc, which will report earnings on Monday, rose 0.44 percent after agreeing to give shareholder ValueAct Capital more access to its books and board of directors.

    JPMorgan Chase & Co, which reports on Tuesday, declined 0.48 percent. Some bargain hunters are betting on a stronger 2019 for banks after the S&P 500 bank index fell 18.4 percent in 2018.

    U.S. stocks took a severe beating in the last quarter of 2018 due to worries over trade, interest rate hikes and a slowdown in global growth.

    Analysts expect S&P 500 companies' earnings per share to grow by 6.4 percent this year, compared with 23.5 percent in 2018, when they were supercharged by newly enacted corporate tax cuts, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.

    General Motors gave a strong earnings forecast for 2019, sending the automaker's shares surging 7.05 percent.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended down 0.02 percent at 23,995.95 points, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.21 percent to 6,971.48.
    •••••••••••••

    "Wall Street's five-day rally flickers out as earnings near" - http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/wall-streets-five-day-rally-flickers-out-as-earnings-near-idUSKCN1P51FS
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  • Good morning,

    Stocks rise more than 2% for the week

    Stocks posted solid weekly gains, but an ongoing U.S. government shutdown and worries about an economic slowdown in China pushed shares marginally lower on Friday.
    ...
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    Dow.....23996 -5.97 -0.02%
    Nasdaq..6972 -14.6 -0.21%
    S&P 500.2596 -0.4 -0.01%

    FTSE.......6918 -24.7 -0.36%
    Dax........10887 -34.1 -0.31%
    CAC........4781 -24.3 -0.51%

    Nikkei....20360 +195.9 +0.97%
    HSI.........26667 +145.8 +0.55%
    Shanghai.2554 +18.7 +0.74%
    ST Times.3199 +15.1 +0.48%
     
    Indo10Yr..8.1924 +0.0216 +0.26%
    INDOBex240.9960 -0.3074 -0.13%
    US10Yr....2.7010 -0.03 -1.10%
    VIX...........18.19 -1.31 -6.72%

    USDIndx .....95.6700 +0.1290 +0.14%
    Como Indx..178.08 -0.52 -0.29%
    (Core Commodity CRB)
    DJUSCL.......55.27 -0.12 -0.22%
    (Dow Jones US Coal Index) 

    IndoCDS...127.78 -1.71 -1.32%
    (5-yr INOCD5) 

    IDR........14047.50 -5.00 -0.04%
    Jisdor....14076 -17 -0.12%
    IDR Fut..14045.00 -10.00 -0.07%

    Euro.........1.1469 -0.0029 -0.25%

    TLKM......27.55 +0.21 +0.77%
    (3878)
    EIDO.........26.47 -0.20 -0.75%
    EEM..........40.73 -0.20 -0.49%

    Oil..........51.59 -0.73 -1.40%
    Gold ......1289.50 +2.40 +0.19%
    Timah....20285.00 +137.50 +0.68%
    Nickel....11462.50 +235.00 +2.09%

    Coal price 98.05 +0.20 +0.20%
    (Jan/Newcastle)
    Coal price 97.85 +0.15 +0.15%
    (Feb/Newcastle)
    Coal price 82.55 +0.55 +0.67%
    (Jan/Rotterdam)
    Coal price 82.50 +0.50 +0.61%
    (Feb/ Rotterdam)

    CPO(Mar) 2173 +9 +0.42%
    (Source: bursamalaysia.com)
    Corn...........378.25 +2.00 +0.53%
    SoybeanOil 28.41 +0.22 +0.78%
    Wheat........519.50 +5.75 +1.12%

    Rubber.......183.20 +3.20 +1.78%
    (Tokyo)JPY/kg

    Pulp(BHKP) - - -

    (DE/ls 14-01-19)
     
    ***
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  • Good morning,

    S&P 500 posts first 5-day winning streak since September

    Stocks rose on Thursday, but gains were capped as disappointing holiday sales from Macy's and a revenue guidance cut from American Airlines pressured retail and airline shares. Fear that the U.S. government shutdown might continue for a long time also weighed on stocks.
    ...
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    Dow.....24002 +122.8 +0.51%
    Nasdaq..6986 +28.99 +0.42%
    S&P 500.2597 +11.7 +0.45%

    FTSE.......6943 +36.2 +0.52%
    Dax........10922 +28.3 +0.26%
    CAC........4806 -7.9 -0.17ax%

    Nikkei....20164 -263.3 -1.29%
    HSI.........26521 +59.1 +0.22%
    Shanghai.2535 -9.3 -0.36%
    ST Times.3183 +25.4 +0.81%
     
    Indo10Yr..8.1708 -0.0163 -0.20%
    INDOBex241.3035 +0.0687 +0.03%
    US10Yr....2.7310 +0.003 +0.11 %
    VIX...........19.50 -0.48 -2.40%

    USDIndx .....95.5410 +0.3530 +0.37%
    Como Indx..178.60 -0.44 -0.25%
    (Core Commodity CRB)
    DJUSCL.......55.39 +0.41 +0.75%
    (Dow Jones US Coal Index) 

    IndoCDS...129.49 +3.275 +2.59%
    (5-yr INOCD5) 

    IDR........14052.50 -72.50 -0.51%
    Jisdor....14093 -27 -0.19%
    IDR Fut..14055.00 -70.00 -0.50%

    Euro.........1.1498 -0.0047 -0.41%

    TLKM......27.34 +0.64 +2.40%
    (3853)
    EIDO.........26.67 +0.49 +1.87%
    EEM..........40.93 +0.29 +0.71%

    Oil..........52.32 +0.16 +0.31%
    Gold ......1287.10 -7.60 -0.59%
    Timah....20147.50 unch +0%
    Nickel....11227.50 -27.50 -0.24%

    Coal price 97.85 -0.25 -0.25%
    (Jan/Newcastle)
    Coal price 97.70 -0.10 -0.10%
    (Feb/Newcastle)
    Coal price 82.00 -0.10 -0.12%
    (Jan/Rotterdam)
    Coal price 82.00 +0.10 +0.12%
    (Feb/ Rotterdam)

    CPO(Mar) 2164 -19 -0.87%
    (Source: bursamalaysia.com)
    Corn...........376.25 -5.75 -1.51%
    SoybeanOil 28.19 -0.14 -1.43%
    Wheat........513.75 -6.25 -1.20%

    Rubber.......180.00 -4.30 -2.33%
    (Tokyo)JPY/kg

    Pulp(BHKP) - - -

    (DE/ls 11-01-19)
     
    ***
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  • Good morning,

    Dow posts 4-day winning streak as Fed meeting minutes confirm patience on rate hikes

    Stocks rose in another volatile session on Wednesday after a summary of the Federal Reserve's meeting in December reiterated comments from the central bank's chairman from last week about patience regarding monetary policy.
    ...
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    Dow.....23879 +91.7 +0.39%
    Nasdaq..6957 +60.1 +0.87%
    S&P 500.2585 +10.6 +0.41%

    FTSE.......6906 +45.03 +0.66%
    Dax........10893 +89.3 +0.83%
    CAC........4814 +40.3 +0.84%

    Nikkei....20427 +223.02 +1.10%
    HSI.........26462 +586.9 +2.27%
    Shanghai.2544 +17.9 +0.71%
    ST Times.3158 +35.1 +1.12%
     
    Indo10Yr..8.1871 +0.0801 +0.99%
    INDOBex241.2347 -0.4975 -0.21%
    US10Yr....2.7280 +0.012 +0.44 %
    VIX...........19.98 -0.49 -2.39%

    USDIndx .....95.1880 -0.7320 -0.76%
    Como Indx..179.04 +3.08 +1.75%
    (Core Commodity CRB)
    DJUSCL.......54.98 +0.90 +1.66%
    (Dow Jones US Coal Index) 

    IndoCDS...126.215 -5.445 -4.14%
    (5-yr INOCD5) 

    IDR........14125.00 -22.50 -0.16%
    Jisdor....14120 +89 +0.63%
    IDR Fut..14125.00 -20.00 -0.14%

    Euro.........1.1545 +0.0104 +0.91%

    TLKM......26.70 -0.46 -1.69%
    (3811)
    EIDO.........26.18 +0.05 +0.19%
    EEM..........40.64 +0.71 +1.78%

    Oil..........52.16 +2.38 +4.78%
    Gold ......1294.70 +8.60 +0.67%
    Timah....20147.50 +205.00 +1.03%
    Nickel....11255.00 +47.50 +0.42%

    Coal price 98.10 +0.30 +0.31%
    (Jan/Newcastle)
    Coal price 97.80 +0.40 +0.41%
    (Feb/Newcastle)
    Coal price 82.10 +0.05 +0.06%
    (Jan/Rotterdam)
    Coal price 81.90 +0.15 +0.18%
    (Feb/ Rotterdam)

    CPO(Mar) 2183 +5 +0.23%
    (Source: bursamalaysia.com)
    Corn...........382.00 +2.00 +0.53%
    SoybeanOil 28.60 +0.17 +0.60%
    Wheat........520.00 +2.25 +0.43%

    Rubber.......184.30 +2.60 +1.43%
    (Tokyo)JPY/kg

    Pulp(BHKP) - - -

    (DE/ls 10-01-19)
     
    ***
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  • Indo Construction: Mispricing, Misbelief, Misconception

    We re-initiate the Construction sector with an OVERWEIGHT rating and a 12-month share prices return of 18-47%. The recent outperformance has legs and shall continue as concerns over slowing new contracts growth, rising leverage and weakening cash flow are overdone. Our backward calculations suggest that the market is overly pessimistic in discounting the contractors’ 2019 EPS growth potential and their ongoing balance sheet improvement.

    Mispricing. Indonesian contractors have undergone a massive valuation de-rating as investors were pricing in concerns over slowing new contracts growth, rising leverage and weakening cash flow amidst the turnkey payment scheme. We believe the risk-reward is still attractive, even after the recent rally. Sector forward P/E now hovers at just 7.1x, a 38% discount to the 5-year mean even excluding the 2014-16 infrastructure bull cycle. We think the market is overly pessimistic as the current valuation implies that the market is only pricing in 2019 earnings growth of 6% (ex-WSKT), versus our 16% forecast.
    ...
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    Misbelief: infra budget, SOEs’ balance sheets, and election. The market perceived the flat growth in infra state budget 2019 has created a glass ceiling in the new order-booking. However, most of the recent projects have been driven by SOEs since 2015. Given the healthy leverage position of major unlisted-SOE project owners, we believe the shortening projects in 2019F/20F is just a misbelief. Contrary to popular belief, SOE contractors recorded positive new contracts growth in the both election years of 2009 and 2014. As new contracts achievement has surprisingly contracted earlier than expected in 2018, we believe new contracts will advance by 14.2% yoy in 2019F.

    Misconception on SOE holding creation. The establishment of Infrastructure and Housing holdings creates a separation between SOE contractors. WIKA and PTPP are set to be under Housing holding with Perumnas at the helm, while ADHI and WSKT are members of Infrastructure holding under Hutama Karya (HK). Given the degree of difference between Infrastructure and Housing holdings, concerns are raised on whether all the upcoming infrastructure projects will exclusively be given to SOE Infra holding. This shall not be the case as we think that the tender process is still required to determine an infra project’s tender-winner.

    OVERWEIGHT the sector. We are positive on the construction as the sector discount to JCI has widened to 53%, the largest since 2012. Our top pick on the sector are PTPP and WIKA as the major overhangs have been diminished, along with strong balance sheet and operating cash flow. We also like WTON for precast name due to its earnings stability and growing order book. Key risks on our recommendation are construction delay in turnkey projects, slower-than-expected land acquisition, and higher-than-expected land clearing costs.

    Link to report: https://www.mandirisekuritas.co.id/r/WoOh
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  • CLSA (KZ)

    ASII

    Potential Avanza “facelift” model by Handy Noverdanius and Sarina lesmina
    ...
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    Our channel checks with the dealers suggest that this is the Avanza facelift model

    Tentative price: Rp196-244mn, increase by Rp5mn from the current models (~2-3%). However, the price still cheaper than Xpander (Rp201-256mn) model by ~2.5-5%.
    Booking has started with Rp5mn of booking fees
    Launching time: Some dealers said that it will be launched around mid-January to early February 2019.

    Comment:
    From the look of it, even though it lacks the “wow” factor of Toyota Rush/Daihatsu Terios; it is better than expected given this is not a new model launch (tentative 2020) but a facelift. Attractive price points vs key rival- Xpander will also help, especially with Toyota having higher brand equity, and a perceived more comprehensive and better after-sales services (with Astra’ Auto2000). So, we expect the new facelift can help provide some support to the dwindling Avanza sales (6.9k units/month for 11M18, from 9.6k in 2017), but to be able to sell it at more than 10k units/month pre-2015, it needs a complete model change that can do well like Rush/Terios - especially amidst intense competition
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  • Good morning,

    Stocks rise in volatile trading as trade talks begin, Amazon shares gain

    Stocks rose in choppy trading on Monday as investors pored through the latest U.S.-China trade developments and equities added to a massive rally in the prior trading session.
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